QUO VADIS
SOUTH AFRICA
Hennie Dreyer
June 2014
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FOREWORD
The past twenty years were very exciting for me. No one was sure what the future holds
under the new democratically elected government. The only certainty in 1994 was that
things will change dramatically.
The population of this beautiful country of ours was to start a new journey. Some with
great expectations and others with fear in the heart. The benefits and problems that
would arise from the new dispensation would become clearer much later and could only
be evaluated in the future.
There was not a reliable roadmap for the unknown terrain ahead and the newly elected
government learned over time expensive lessons, with serious consequences for those
who are at the helm of affairs, as well as their supporters.
In this book, we will deal with the food and medicine dished out by the Authority to the
South African population as well as its consequences and which action plans must be
taken to mitigate the impact.
Hennie Dreyer
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Table of Content
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Chapter 1: The Political History of South Africa
We experienced the closure of the second phase of the political history of South Africa
when the newly elected black democratic government took office in 1994.
The first phase was characterized by Portuguese- Dutch- and English settlers who
governed the country from 1488.
In 1652 with the arrival of Jan van Riebeeck the second phase commenced and lasted
until 1994.
Initially, the colonists established themselves along the coastal areas, and later they
emigrated to the east and north of the country. As they populated the country, they took
over control. In the process, there were several clashes between the whites and the
blacks who migrated southwards from the north of Africa. The Europeans, however,
prevailed, and the land conquered was occupied and controlled. Local-provincial and
national authorities were established and the necessary legislation promulgated.
As the years passed, major problems developed due to the dramatic increase in the
number of black people, as a result of population growth and inflows from other African
countries. Over time, this became a nettle for the South African politics. The last fifty
years of the three hundred and fifty years of the second phase was under control of the
Afrikaans-speaking population that was led by the National Party. It was during this
period that the black populations, led by Mandela and others have decided to work out
their own salvation, and not to wait for the Europeans to do it.
The third phase of the political history of South Africa is characterized by the fact that it
is the first time in the history of the country that there is not a minority government in
power, but a democratically elected government elected by all the residents of SA
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Chapter 2: New is not always better
In 1996, the United Nations HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT reported that in 100
of the 160 member states (of which South Africa was one of them) the residents were
worse off than was the case in 1980. The report also found that the per capita income
of the poor countries started to decrease. During the same year the World Bank
reported that 20% of the world’s population income was less than one US dollar a
day. In the developing world, the per capita income is a hundred dollars a month to
two thousand five hundred dollars in the developed world.
The extreme poverty in the world, as in South Africa, is a very unpleasant reality. A
further reality is that the poor becomes, poorer and the rich, richer, and the gap
between rich and poor are growing despite all efforts to stop it.
One of the consequences of this situation is an increase in crime. For many people,
stealing is the only alternative to obtain food.
The question arises, namely, who or what is the cause of this state of affairs? To my
mind there are several reasons. The following are the most important, namely the
tremendous population explosion and the globalization of the world economy, as well
as the deterioration in the quality of world governments.
The poor man's wealth is his number of children. The answer is however that the
population growth should decrease, not increase, so that fewer people share in the
cake, and everyone gets a bigger slice.
It is generally accepted that poverty refers primarily to inadequate access to material
assets, but it can also mean lack of access to non-material assets such as resources.
The interaction between physical disability and vulnerability in terms of unemployment
must also be taken into account.
The following information became known recently and shocked:
• Children are disproportionately affected by poverty. 50% of all people in South Africa
live in poverty, while 62% of all children live in poverty.
• Only 33% of children live with both parents, while 23, 9% do not live with their
parents.
• 3, 3% of children live with their father and 39, 3% live with their mother.
• Elderly blacks (15.3%) suffer more from hunger than colored people (9.3%), Indians
(3.0%), while the figure is only (0.6%) in the case of whites.
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• Despite the fact that South Africa allocates 18, 5% of the annual budget to education
the education system is generally in a very poor condition. Sixty-six percent of the
children who started school in 2001 dropped out of school before the matriculation
examination.
According to the World Economic Forum report, South Africa's mathematics and
science standards is the second lowest in the world. We find that the government
boasts the metric results as a pass figure of 79%. Many of them cannot even read or
write.
Another consequence of poverty and avarice is corruption. In 2011, Parliament was
informed that between R25 billion and R30 billion from the government's annual
budget goes for corruption and incompetence. Money that could be used to alleviate
the problem of poverty.
The number of orphans in South Africa totals three point nine five million. Nearly ten
percent of the total population.
Notwithstanding this gloomy picture there is hope. There are countries where this
dismal situation has been reversed. The "Asian Tigers", South Korea, Taiwan, Hong
Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and China made significant progress in the
situation in their countries.
A number of years ago, China (country with the largest population in the world)
passed legislation that forced families to have only one child, and thus they drastically
brought down the population growth. In Taiwan, people hold two jobs. For their dally
job they received a salary, but for the temporary job, at another employer they
received no compensation. In these countries, political freedom was subordinated to
economic freedom.
In Indonesia, the government abolished the state pension scheme. Their view was
that if you want to eat, you have to work.
The role and influence of trade unions in these countries is extremely limited.
Government interference was only for specific reasons and did not threaten the
economy with nationalization. Sorry to say but democracy has not brought prosperity
to SA. After twenty years of black rule, the vast majority of the people are worse off
than before 1994. The only growth was a sharp increase in the population, corruption,
poverty and the tremendous increase in the number of civil servants and their
remuneration.
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The third phase of the political history of South Africa has not so far gone as was
expected by many residents of this beautiful country , and the country is paying a
heavy price for this transition to the fourth phase.
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Chapter 3: Uhuru!!!
My goal with this book is to look at the political change in South Africa as well as the
consequences since the transition to democracy in 1994, and what the possible
solutions may be in the future.
After the first twenty years of a black government, the picture does not look very
promising but we will investigate the reasons for that and search for solutions for
the following social problems.
3.1 POVERTY
The size of the population and the increase in numbers play an important role in the
cycle of poverty in a country. It is an economic fact that as there are more people who
have to share the cake, everyone's slice will be smaller, unless the size of the cake
gets bigger. For a country to grow, the number of participants is reduced or enlarged
as well as the size of the economic cake. For a long time in the history of this country,
the cake did not grow, while there is a population explosion in the mainly black
community, and we cannot say that the process was reversed since 1994.
Twenty years have passed under the new regime, and we find that the process of
impoverishment of particularly the black population increased. The policy of the
current government follows the previous government’s policy and resulted in an
increase in the number of people and not in the growth of the cake. On one side free
condoms are issued while on the other side an allowance is paid for each child that is
born. Later the grants were extended to all children up to the age of eighteen years. It
will be difficult to change this policy in the future especially because today we have a
government that begins to falter and within its own ranks is eroded.
China has been identified this population explosion about forty years ago, and a one
child per family policy was enforced by legislation. As a result of this policy, they
managed to stop the population growth, but also increased simultaneously the
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economic cake and thus a hopeless situation was changed into a prosperous country
today.
The opposite of the Chinese policy, namely an increase in the birth rate can lead to
catastrophic consequences of hunger and misery like we saw in Rwanda, Burundi
and Zaire in 1996. It appears that hunger is the only effective way to reduce the
growth of the population and large numbers of people need to die from starvation,
before governments take action.
It is also true in the case of a family. Wealthier people do experience better health
and fewer children die young, better education, and a higher standard of living.
The illegal influx of people from other African countries (currently estimated at 10
million) creates a further problem in the number of people who must share in the
economic cake. Several times the locals attacked the immigrants and destroy their
assets and they even killed some of them.
3.2 CRIME
Apart from the aforementioned, crime and corruption also plays an important role in
the decline of the welfare of the South African population. The criteria, by which crime
is measured in South Africa against other countries, may not be as reliable, but as for
the status of violence there cannot be arguments.
In 1993, the Center for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation of Wits, found that 47
people are murdered per 100 000 of the population per year, twice as high as the
second country, the Caribbean island St. Lucia. The World Health Organization put
the figure at 54 per 100,000. Even higher than the previous figure. The average
international figure is 5.5 per 100 000.With regards to rape of women the statistics in
1996 were, 3300 cases per month.
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A study by the GSP in the same year found that at least 80% of all households are
affected by crime. On average there are two persons killed per hour, four women
raped, ten vehicles hijacked and stolen, broken into eight places and ten robberies
committed. As the years moved on from 1996, however, matters worsened, and we
find that even the law enforcement officers are now part of the crime network.
The latest statistics released by the Minister of Police, Nathi Mthethwa recently for the
period 2012-2013 is very vague in order to hide the true facts, This is the first time
that there had been reported in this way.
According to the report, contact crime decreased by 4.2%, but for the first time in
history, there is an increase in violent crime. For the first time in six years there has
been an increase in the number of murders. The figure has increased by 650 or 4.2%.
It is not possible to compare these statistics with previous years. What is shocking is
the sharp increase in murders over which the white media reports, but it is ignored by
the police in their reports. Attempted murders and consequently serious injuries
increased by 6.5%. By contrast sexual offenses decreased by 0.4%. Other statistics
from the report reads as follows:
Housebreaking ....................................... increase of 3.6%
Hijacking .........................Increase of 5.4%
Truck hijacking ....................................... increase of 14.9%
Business robberies ................................. decrease of 0.6%
Business burglaries................................ increase of 1.7%
Car burglaries ....................................., .increase of 3.6%
Commercial crime ..................... ………..increase of 0, 6%
Stock theft ..............................................Decrease of 6.5%
It cannot be expected from the police to prevent interpersonal offences (between
family members), but good visible policing can definitely lead to a large reduction in
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crime. It can certainly not be said that the aforesaid crimes are because of poverty..
Anything but. There are groups of criminals who move about freely and not
apprehended by the police.
Street crimes affect mostly the poorer people (black) when they are on their way to
work, or when they go to school or visiting friends. Their movements are usually on
foot, and their exposure is increased and they become easy targets. It usually takes
place in quiet streets or dense forests where they are heading to the train or bus
stations, these crimes cause anxiety and uncertainty among the public (black and
white) t they feel threatened in their homes, cars and workplace.
There was a small light in the tunnel. Cash in transit robberies, declined by 20.3%
(261 cases)but bank robberies increased by 80% (35 cases) and ATM bombings
have fallen by 18%, As in the case of hijacking and truck hijacking these crimes are
committed by syndicates.
The aforementioned crime statistics are the worst drop in crime over the past decade.
Factors that impact on the high levels of crime can be attributed to inequality and
poverty as well as the instability in the management of the police force as well as the
collapse of the police intelligence system.
Most of the killings, assaults and rapes took place in the neighborhood of the victims.
This violence occurs due to several reasons, including the fact that it is accepted
today that it is normal to use violence to achieve your goals. A poor self-image and
gender inequalities also aggravate the problem. Another major factor is the abuse of
drugs and alcohol. In many cases, police assistance was requested before a violent
crime occurs, but very often they arrive hours later when the crime has been
committed.
Police actions such as roadblocks, patrols and more visible policing and proper
investigation and prosecution of the perpetrators in court, can play a major role in
curbing the following crimes:
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• Murder and attempted murder often takes place during robberies and inter-group