DETERMINISM
What is determinism?
All that is needed in order to maintain determinism in a general sense is to hold the hypothesis that events happen in one or more definite (determinate) ways, that such ways of becoming are not arbitrary but lawful, and that the processes whereby every object acquires its characteristics develop out of pre-existing conditions (Bunge, 1963). The earliest version, "cause and effect" was introduced with the celestial mechanics of Isaac Newton - a good effort, but only the beginning.
As more complicated systems were eventually studied and described, the causal model of determinism (simple causes producing simple effects) required more sophistication as probability was included in explanations. The outcomes of many events were unpredictable, either because existing methods were not capable of discerning complex causes, or because the balance of different causes lead to a range of outcomes rather than a single type. Was the probabilistic calculus covered by causality or not? Physical scientists couldn't decide. Regarding social phenomena however, other concerns rendered causality a moot point: What could account for the kind of situation where the same cause produced different effects? And, what could account for the other kind of situation, where different causes produced the same effects? These anomalies were dealt with in the Systems Approach by replacing "causes" with "contributions", and "effects" with "results". The size, kind, and timing of contributions can produce either similar or dissimilar results in complex systems, so either determinism is obsolete because it is based on cause and effect, OR an expanded definition of determinism is required, based on contributions and results. If you opt for the second alternative, keep your expectations modest.
How does determinism work?
The best results come with a flexible approach - think of determinism as a systemic property rather than an exact description of particular occurrences. Look for both "causes and effects" AND "contributions and results". Focus on careful observation and accurate description, rather than single causes or single effects. If past experience is any indicator, then even the facts from a good study can be interpreted in a variety of ways, sometimes contradictory or inconclusive. Above all, remember the three laws of forecasting: (1) forecasting is difficult; (2) methodology is over-rated; and (3) foresight requires insight (Ascher and Overhold, 1983).
Reference
Mario Bunge
CAUSALITY
Meridian Books, New York, 1963
William Ascher & William Overhold
STRATEGIC PLANNING AND FORECASTING
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1983