CHAPTER SEVEN – THE HAWAII FORMULA
Prime Minister Tony Weaver and Cabinet Secretary Sir Robin Algar made their way indoors towards their second floor suites.
“I can almost hear them scratching their heads,” said Weaver. “They may just guess at the common link between Hawaii and Northern Ireland, but somehow I doubt they will guess what I am going to propose. I think we shall certainly have their undivided attention tomorrow.”
“I think we had it today, too,” replied Algar. “And I also think that we will end up getting their support for the covert part of this operation, if only because they can’t think that they will have much of a role to play in helping us get rid of the terrorist gangs over there.”
“They may change their minds when they hear what we have to say tomorrow, though,” said the Prime Minister, “especially when they learn that we want them to take the lead in all this.”
“That’s certainly a risk,” agreed Sir Robin. “But then this whole venture is a risk - even telling them about it in the first place runs the risk of an enormously embarrassing leak.”
“Well, we shall see,” said Weaver. “In a way, the fishing trip will be an unwanted distraction, although from a security point of view, it probably couldn't be better in terms of not being overheard. But there’s a lot of ground to cover in just a morning. What time are we due to leave?”
“I think the plan is for us to have a barbeque lunch - probably fish, if we catch any - and then a final round of informal talks, so we have rather more time than just a morning. We’re due out on the early evening flight from JFK,” replied Algar. “I’ll go up to the office the check up on things before I turn in, but I’m afraid there will be some red boxes put on the inbound flight for you to deal with on the way back. With any luck, we shall be back in Downing Street soon after eight o’clock Sunday morning.”
“That sounds OK,” sighed the PM. “But we shall need some time on the aircraft to agree how well we think we’ve got on, and what we need to do next. Perhaps more important,” he reflected, “who we need to tell next. Don’t spend too long in the office - we need all the sleep we can get.”
They parted on the landing, outside the Prime Minister’s suite, as Sir Robin went up one further flight of stairs to the temporary offices that had been established - one for the President and one for the UK Prime Minister. Both had secure communications links, via satellite, and a handful of staff, sufficient to cope with any emergency while the two leaders were away from their own permanent offices.
All seemed to be at peace with the world - or at least, there was nothing going on at the moment that couldn’t wait until the PM’s return, which was good. There would be nothing in the red boxes that was of particular moment - all pretty routine Cabinet papers to read and letters to sign. One of the Garden Room girls had come over with the party, and so would be on the Jumbo going back tomorrow if Weaver needed to do any dictation. Flights had been confirmed, and the PM’s car would be ready and waiting for him on arrival at Heathrow, as would the Cabinet Secretary’s. The President’s office next door had been in touch to fix the helicopters to Kennedy airport tomorrow, so just about everything that needed to be done seemed to have been done.
A thankful Robin Algar bade the duty clerk ‘goodnight’, and returned to his suite on the floor below. He needed a rest, and it would be a happy break to find out what his wife, Betty, had been up to in Washington while they were at this morning’s meetings about the Middle East. Was it only this morning? God, it had been a longer day that he had thought. And tomorrow was going to be even more trying, he imagined.
But when he eventually got to bed, having admired the results of a shopping trip with the President's rather extravagant wife, Millie, he found he couldn’t sleep. There was too much to think about, churning over in his mind all that had happened during their walk through the grounds this afternoon, and too much more to rehearse for tomorrow’s fishing trip.
Tony Weaver was having the same trouble in the suite next door. Which was why, as dawn was breaking, he decided to find out what Andrew Groves had discovered in Brussels. The European angle of this scheme had always worried him more than a little, and although he suspected that Sinn Fein might be more supportive of the whole plan than the Unionists, they had the potential to stir up trouble through their office in Belgium.
He dressed quickly and quietly, and walked up to the third floor office. They patched him through to the duty officer in Downing Street, who in turn was able to give him Groves’ phone number in Holland. He decided to use the phone in his suite, rather than alert those in the office - security wouldn’t be a problem with his call if he was careful, and he know Groves to be a cautious man of few words.
Andrew had sounded almost as surprised as the lady who answered the phone, and immediately realised that his end of the phone line was insecure, even if what he thought to be the Washington end wasn’t. At the end of their brief but reassuring conversation, Weaver had hung up without telling Groves where he was. He felt a bit mean about that, but didn’t mind - the fewer people who knew the better.
Breakfast was lavish. There was everything available they could wish for - fresh fruit, scrambled egg, grilled bacon, hash browns, waffles, - everything. While Susan tucked in from the groaning sideboard, Weaver himself asked for two hard-boiled eggs. They arrived in solid silver eggcups, already shelled. Weaver noticed that every place setting had its own solid silver condiment set, that there were fresh flowers on the table, and at least two people were serving in the dining room.
“Chuck knows how to look after himself,” remarked Bill Minton when he joined them. “Good job he’s paying for all this and not the taxpayer.”
“I must remember to drop him a note of thanks,” said Weaver.
“He’d like that, I’m sure,” said Minton. “How did you sleep?”
“Not a lot, to be honest, but we were very comfortable. I was up early.”
“Me too,” said Minton. “Colin and I stayed talking for some time after you’d retired, and put together a few theories of our own about what you want to talk about later this morning.”
“Robin and I guessed you would,” replied the Prime Minister. “There would have been something wrong if you hadn’t.” Weaver grinned. “We shall be interested to see if you guessed right.”
“We’ll get going as soon as we're ready - the suspense is killing us,” said Minton. “But I’ll tell you now, Tony, that Colin and I are sure we can get the necessary support to help you with your plan to rid Northern Ireland of terrorism. Obviously, we shall need to talk to Miles Bragan and perhaps a few others, but we don’t see any great problem.”
By then Colin Carlucci and Robin Algar had joined them.
“That’s very encouraging news, Mr President,” said the Prime Minister. “I hope at the end of today you will be able to support the whole of my plan.”
“I’ve arranged for one of the best fishermen on Shelter Island to take us out this morning.” continued Minton. “Guy called Captain John Hill, ex-Coast Guards, totally reliable, and still with a security clearance because of his reservist commitment. I saw him arrive in his launch just as I came down.”
They were soon ready to bid farewell to their wives, and head across the manicured lower lawn towards the jetty at the northern end of the small private beach.
“This certainly is a beautiful spot,” commented Algar. “And look at the size of Chuck’s launch!”
The two Marine Corps security men were already on board, chatting quietly together, as Capt. Hill walked up the jetty to greet them. He was quietly spoken man, with a tanned, lined face under his peaked cap.
“Mr President, gentlemen.” he greeted them, half saluting. “Everything's ready when you are, sir.”
“Right, then, let’s get this show moving,” said the President. “As you know, we must be back here about noon, so we don’t have long to catch lunch.”
“Long enough,” replied John Hill, with a warm smile. “I gather you will be doing rather more talking than fishing, but I’ll quickly show you the ropes as we head out towards Montauk Point. Should be plenty of bass out there. Some Spanish mackerel and a few Skipjack Tuna, too, I shouldn’t wonder, but we’ll use light tackle and go for the Striped Bass. You can see from the masses of birds out there that there’s plenty of shrimp and sand eel about, so the fish won’t be too far away from a good meal.”
As they pulled out into open water, they could see two small Zodiacs ahead of them, no doubt the rest of their security team.
“Let’s go below to the cabin and start our discussions, before we get to the fishing grounds.” suggested the President.
As they settled in, one of the Marines poured steaming fresh coffee for each of them, left a plate of cookies on the table, and went on deck, firmly closing the door behind him.
“Please tell Capt. Hill that we’ll join him when we’re ready,” said Minton to the retreating figure. “You carry on fishing if you want, but we are not to be disturbed.”
The President turned to Prime Minister Weaver. “We’re all ears, Tony.”
Weaver had decided to take the bull by the horns, and not waste time on too much background. He took a deep breath.
“With your help, Mr President, I believe we can bring peace to the Province, as we discussed yesterday. But peace without stability will not last, so we need to install political institutions that both sides of the divide can accept and work in as well as work with. I no longer believe that Britain can play a part in that process.” Weaver could see he had already captured the attention of both men. “The fact is that the British Government is one of the main causes of the problem in Northern Ireland. As you know, the Republicans want nothing further to do with the UK, and are determined to achieve union with the south. The Unionists on the other hand want nothing to do with the Republic of Ireland, and are determined to stay a part of the UK. I have to say that my own soundings suggest that the Republic is none too keen on union with the north, although it naturally has to go through the motions of supporting the Republican cause, rather than the Unionists’. But the gap between the two sides is unbridgeable, so the other part of the problem is thus the Republic itself. If we can remove the problem, that is both the UK and the Republic from the Northern Ireland scene, then a solution becomes possible.”
Carlucci, frowning, was deeply mystified, and looked questioningly at Algar. The President shook his head.
“I simply can’t see how that can be done without creating a total vacuum, and inviting civil war,” said Minton.
“Exactly what I said initially,” said Sir Robin Algar. “But I now think there is a way forward after all.”
“My theory,” continued Weaver “is simply to replace both nations by a third, which would be acceptable to both sides of the conflict in the north. And I believe that nation could be the United States of America.”
There was a stunned silence, broken only by the steady throb of the powerful twin outboard motors of the launch.
“How the hell!” exclaimed the President, eventually.
“More to the point,” said Carlucci, “Why the hell?”
“Let’s deal with ‘why’ first,” said Weaver “and look at the advantages which I believe could flow to America. First of all, some 50 million Americans claim Irish ancestry, and form the third largest ethnic group in the US. You’re one of them, Bill. A majority of them support the republican cause in Northern Ireland, and would be unlikely to insist that the province remains part of the UK. You would be returning their fatherland to them if sovereignty of Ireland could pass across, and your party would secure the Irish American vote - well, just about for ever. You would then also be freer to deal with Muslim fundamentalist terrorism and the problems of the Middle East, because loss of their votes would make little difference to your power base. Secondly, you would have a much firmer foothold in Europe, with all that means for trade and influence, the NATO alliance and so on. I believe that Ireland’s membership of the EU could be retained, with careful negotiation, even if it became your 51st State. In UK terms, the Irish State would become a sort of American Hong Kong. From the Irish perspective, they gain peace and prosperity as part of a far more wealthy and powerful nation than the UK, they gain unity under a third party friendly nation, with a special relationship already in place. As for the UK itself, we save our exchequer a small fortune which the conflict, peacekeeping efforts, direct rule and everything else is presently costing us, and yet none of these costs would pass on to the US. Furthermore, we would rid ourselves of a huge problem which successive Governments have failed to resolve and which is seemingly insoluble, while at the same time building even closer ties with the US without jeopardising our existing ties with Europe.”
Minton and Carlucci were now sitting forward, leaning on the table, cold coffee in front of them. Weaver certainly had their undivided attention, Algar noted, without so far any sign of outright rejection. He had to hand it to the Prime Minister - he certainly knew how to judge his audience and how to present his case. He had seen it so many times in Cabinet and in the House. And now on a motor launch, somewhere off New York.
“Very neat,” said Minton at last. “Very neat indeed.”
“A fifty-first State, for God’s sake,” exclaimed his Chief of Staff.
“Frankly,” said the President, “I can’t see how it would be done, even if my colleagues and I were to agree that it was a good idea.”
“The same way as Hawaii transferred to the United States in 1959,” replied Weaver.
“But if I remember my history right,” said Carlucci, “the Hawaiians wanted to become a State. The Irish don’t”
“Not yet,” responded Algar, “But we think they might when it’s put to them and the advantages are fully understood. Certainly we believe the Catholic north will be supportive, and that the Republic itself could be persuaded to enjoy the benefits of both membership of the EU and a direct relationship with your economy in return for giving up, in name anyway, its present sovereignty. The Unionists in the North will be more difficult to persuade, but we can offer them inducements, we think, which might help them to vote ‘yes’ in any referendum.”
“Why do you think the south will be prepared to give up being a sovereign state?” asked the President.
“Mainly for economic reasons,” replied Weaver. “They have enjoyed unprecedented economic growth and prosperity since joining the European Union, but the so-called ‘Celtic Tiger’ economy is now beginning to look a bit tired. They won’t be slow to see the benefits of boosting their economy while remaining in Europe, or of peace across the Province.”
“What about Europe - how will they react?”
“One thing I can tell you is that Sinn Fein won’t be stirring them up. Although they have an office in Brussels, it seems to be virtually ineffective. But I believe the EU will also see the benefits to trade of closer ties with the US. Huge new markets will open up for its member nations, especially the more recently joined and poorer member countries,” said Weaver.
“There are so many questions,” said President Minton. “We can’t deal with them all here, and we shouldn’t try. Let’s concentrate on the major principles involved, and leave the details till later. For a start, I shall need to brush up on my American history, to remind myself how Hawaii did actually accede to the United States.”
“The whole process took years,” replied Algar, “so we shall need to speed things up considerably if we take that route. But the basic constitutional mechanics of the transfer seem to me to be almost tailor-made for the transfer of sovereignty of both Northern Ireland to the US from the UK, and for the transfer of sovereignty from the Republic.”
“If I remember my recent history,” said Carlucci, “Hawaii twice applied for annexation to the United States, and was twice refused before establishing itself as a republic. It was only after the war, and what happened at Pearl Harbour, that things really started to move, and even then the Senate rejected the first Bill which the House of Representatives passed.”
“That’s right,” said Minton. “But we need to act faster than that this time - forget annexation and establishing a republic as the first steps. We will need to move straight to legislation to admit Ireland as the 51st State, if we’re going to do anything at all.”
“In the Hawaii case, that part of it all eventually happened quite fast, including approval by Hawaii’s voters,” said Carlucci. “So let’s hope we can do it fast again, if it comes to it.”
“I agree,” said Weaver. “The faster we can move on all aspects of this, the less chance there will be for opposition to get itself organised well enough to throw spanners in the works.”
“There seem to me to be any number of hurdles to be crossed first, and the plan could fall at any one of them,” commented Minton. “For a start, just think how many people and institutions need to give the scheme their blessing before it can go ahead, including both Houses of Congress.”
“I don’t under-estimate the scale of the task ahead of us,” said Weaver, “but with terrorism beaten and a peaceful background, our job will be made ten times easier.”
“It seems to me,” said Minton, “that the key to all this will be co-ordination.”
“And speed,” said Carlucci.
“And secrecy,” added Weaver, “until we are ready to launch the idea on an unsuspecting world, by which time all the plans must be in place for constitutional talks, referenda, elections and the rest of it. The planning of all that will have to be carried out by the minimum number of the most highly trustworthy officials while we deal with the terrorists, so that the political solution can be put in place immediately there is seen, by all the parties concerned, to be a chance of lasting peace.”
Carlucci sat back. “Personally,” he said, “I can see many good reasons for taking this seriously and discussing it in detail further. But I cannot see how anyone in Ireland, north or south, will possibly take such a proposal seriously. It will simply be seen as a cop-out by the British Government, and yet another UK plan to be kicked into touch by one side or the other.”
“I agree,” said Weaver. “That thought had occurred to us, too. This may be asking a lot, but if we are to proceed with this, then the idea must be proposed by the United States for it to stand any chance of being accepted, either in Ireland, or by the international community at large.”
“That sounds a bit devious to me,” commented the President. “Is this the UK copping-out already?”
“No, of course not, Bill. Colin is absolutely right. If the UK were to put forward such a plan it would get nowhere. We might as well suggest transferring sovereignty to, say India, or Spain. It would be laughed out of court. But if the proposal came from this side of the Atlantic as a final solution to the problems which have beset Ireland for so long, then it might have a chance, and you would, in my view, gain great credit for putting forward such a statesmanlike proposal.”
“And gain even greater international credit if it could be made to work,” interjected Sir Robin Algar.
“I have to say, too,” continued the Prime Minister, “that I believe it to be absolutely crucial that the proposal is brokered by you in the south. I can hardly go to the Taoiseach to suggest that he hands over sovereignty of his country to you, whereas you could go to him to suggest that a unified Ireland and a lasting settlement would be possible under your auspices and with your patronage.”
“You’re asking an awful lot, not just of the United States,” commented the President, “but of the people and institutions of Europe, the people of Ireland, and your own electorate in Great Britain.”
“An awful lot is always demanded of politics and politicians, if ever we are to achieve anything worthwhile,” retorted Weaver. “Diplomacy will certainly be working overtime in Europe and the South, but as to our own electorate - well. I believe the people of Great Britain have had more than enough of Northern Ireland and its problems. Certainly, recent opinion polls have shown even more strongly than before that most people would be glad just to get out of the Province and leave them to get on with it.”
“Which is not a solution at all,” commented Carlucci.
“Of course not,” agreed Algar. “Even with the terrorist gangs more or less disbanded and their weapons denied them, it would lead to civil war and a bloodbath, which the Republic in the south would, and could, do little to prevent.”
“I’m not suggesting that my proposed solution is the only one, Bill,” said Weaver. “Leaving them to get on with it certainly isn’t an alternative, but if anything better and easier occurs to either of you, then I’d be happy to discuss it.”
“Nothing ever has,” said Minton. “And I have to say that there is a.certain neatness about your proposals, breath-taking and audacious though they are at first sight. What do you think, Colin?”
“Convincing the people of Northern Ireland seems to me to be the most difficult part of the whole plan, and that’s really down to you, Prime Minister, even if the idea does appear to come from this side of the Atlantic. But if we can crack that, then I can see that this really might be a runner,” opined Carlucci.
“I am inclined to agree”, said a thoughtful President. “It has potential merit for all sides, apart perhaps from the Unionist’s point of view. You said you might be able to offer them inducements, Tony. What had you in mind?”
“I haven't properly thought it through, yet,” replied Weaver, “but I’m sure we can think of some constitutional device which could sway them from their bigoted leadership. Something like seats in the UK Parliament for a limited number of years, as well as in Congress, joint citizenship, that sort of thing.”
“The democratic processes will certainly need some careful thought, but I like that idea,” said Minton.
“I’m pleased to hear you say ‘will’ rather than ‘would’, Bill,” said the Prime Minister. “Was that a slip of the tongue, or are you already starting to think that we may be on to something after all?”
The President chuckled. “I’m thinking positive!” he said. “But I do at least have some powers of my own as President. For instance, I can negotiate executive agreements with leaders of other nations, and negotiate and ratify treaties with the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.”
“I’m thinking positive, too,” said the Chief of Staff. “And the more I think, the more I can see that this is a really clever idea, if I may say so, and certainly one worthy of further thought and careful consideration and development. Do you agree, Mr President?”
“Personally, I do,” replied Minton. He turned to Weaver. “Of course, I can’t speak for my Cabinet colleagues, or the Senate or House of Representatives, and we certainly need to do more work before this is ever put to all of them - or those on your side of the Atlantic, Tony. How do we take this forward, if we should decide to do so?”
“I, think as a first step, we both need to get agreement in principle to taking this forward from a minimum of our closest and most trustworthy colleagues and advisors. That will allow us to start proper planning. The anti-terrorist and financial aspects we can take care of quite easily, I think, but the political elements of all this will take a considerable amount of detailed planning. I suggest we will need to establish a small joint committee of constitutional lawyers and others to advise us on the steps we need to take, and the order in which they need to be taken.”
“Sounds a sensible way forward,” commented Minton.
“They can start work while we are still ridding ourselves of the terrorist gangs, their money and their arms.” continued Weaver. “That way, we shall be ready for the second phase of this exercise as soon as it becomes apparent that a lasting peace is about to break out in Northern Ireland.”
“Presumably, you would hope by then to have, shall we say, taken care of most of those likely to be violently opposed to the proposed political settlement.”
“Quite so, Bill,” agreed Weaver.
“How would you structure this constitutional committee, then?” asked Minton.
“Since your country would effectively and publicly be taking the lead, should you agree, then I think it only right that you should provide the chairman.” replied Weaver. “Not only right, if I may say so, but natural, if you are to propose a solution along the lines of the Hawaii formula. For a start, a State constitution will need to be drafted, and proposals drawn up about the structure of the State legislature. Then it will need to consider how the two present halves of the proposed new State are to be represented in that legislature, and in your own Congress. It will probably also be sensible to consider a degree of representation continuing in our own UK Parliament for a time, and this will need to be specified. Finally, it will be necessary to set up the machinery through which all this is agreed - either through referenda, national and local elections, free votes in Parliament and so on. The committee will have an enormous amount of ground to cover in a very short timescale.”
“We’ll need the best brains in the business, that’s for sure,” responded the President. “Any ideas, Tony?”
“Again, we need to give that more thought. But there is one man I would like to be part of our team,” replied the Prime Minister, “and that’s James Anchor, one of my Ministers in the Northern Ireland Office. Some of this was his idea in the first place. He won a first in American Political History at Cambridge, and he suggested that the Hawaii solution could apply here. He has a first rate mind, and is totally reliable. We may need a couple of others - perhaps you will have some ideas, Robin - but we do need to keep the committee as small as possible, and fill it not just with our top brains, but also with people who can work fast. And we shall need to include a representative nominated by the Taoiseach, at some stage, when you have broached the subject with him.”
“I agree all that”, said Minton. “But we need to do first things first. If I tell you now, Tony, that I am prepared to consult further among a limited number of my top people” - the President looked across at Carlucci, who nodded - “then that allows you to do the same when you get back.”
“Mr President,” said Weaver formally, “I am delighted and relieved to hear you say that. I confess that we hadn’t dared to hope that we would be able to get this far so quickly during our informal discussions, and I really appreciate your speedy reaction and ready support.”
“Forget it, Tony,” responded Minton. “It will get more difficult as we get into more formal discussions, but brilliant thinking like yours deserves a positive response, at least initially. Let’s see how far we can run with this.”
“The question of security becomes even more important if we are to move forward,” said Weaver. “We really must make sure that we put nothing in writing unless we really have no option. No paper, no leaks, or at least a far reduced risk of leaks.”
“Agree that, too, Tony,” said Minton. “Of course, our small constitutional committee will eventually need to put their plans on paper, or record them in some way”.
“Perhaps,” suggested Robin Algar, “we should devise a special one-off code for this operation, available to only the minimum number of those involved, and as complex as it can be devised.”
“That’s a good idea, too,” said Carlucci. “I’m sure our people could work together to put together something that’s virtually un-crackable, especially if it will only be used by a limited number of people for a limited time.”
“It would certainly be very useful for communicating between us as this progresses,” said Minton. “We certainly can’t do all the talking on our own, Tony, over the phone.”
“We shall need to look at the security of that, too,” said the Cabinet Secretary. “Perhaps a special hot line, with a video link. I'll get the Briefing Room team to look at that immediately we get back.”
“I suppose that’s right,” said the Chief of Staff. “Once you’ve left this evening, we shan’t be able to have quiet and private chats like this again, so we need to talk through issues like that right now.”
“There’s one other thing, too,” said the President. “We need to be quite clear in our minds and agree between us a timetable for consulting with the Taoiseach. I suppose I shall have to raise it with him first, perhaps informally at such a weekend as this, but then it will be useful - probably essential, come to think of it - to have you alongside for joint talks.”
“Absolutely,” agreed the Prime Minister. “Michael O’Leary’s early agreement is essential, not least so that his people can play a part in the deliberations of the constitutional committee at a later stage.”
Bill Minton looked at his watch.
“My brain’s going round in circles!” he said. “We have time for further discussions after lunch, so let’s see if we can catch anything worth cooking.”
As they stood and stretched, they realised that the launch had been at anchor for some time. John Hill came to the cabin door as they emerged.
“There’s more coffee if anyone wants it,” he said, “and the sport is looking good. I’ve already been broken by a small Skipjack Tuna which was too lively for the light tackle I was using, and one of o