Dominate Sports Betting by Joris Dekers - HTML preview

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Section 5: The 10 biggest Bookmakers and Bonuses and a list of the most arb-productive Bookmakers

I have put together a list here with the 10 biggest bookmakers. These are the bookmakers that score high in one or more of the following categories. They surely produce lot’s of arbs too.

(1)sign up and/or loyality bonus (naming both bonuses)
(2)security and safety level of the site (low, average, high level)
(3)the amount of payment methods (small, average, large amount) (4)worldwide customers welcome (countries from where people are not allowed) (5)odds on all sports (yes/no)
(6)minimum deposit (in Euro, UK Pounds and Dollars - 0-200)

Bonuses Security

level
Deposit methods amount

Unibet 15€ free bet High Large
Canbet
Bet365
Ladbrokes
Mansion
BetUS

 

BetUS accepts US players
Totesport
10bet

30 ¤ free bet,
10% upto 75¤ and 20% upto
250¤
15% upto 500$ (all players)
and 100¤ free bet for UK
customers
None at the
moment
None at the
moment
15-50%
(depends upon the amount of your first
deposit ) up to
5000$!
25¤ free bet,
100% upto
100¤ sign up bonus
50% upto 25¤

High large

Customers Odds disallowed from? on ‘all’
sports US and Costa yes Rica
US and Australia no

Minimum Deposit

15$/15 € /10¤
30$/30€ /20¤

High large
High large

US, Holland, yes Israel, Cyprus,
Philippines,
Estonia, Antigua
Curacao
US, Germany no

High large US no
Average average
Average large

Austria, no Bahamas, China,
Germany,
Japan, Korea,
Sweden
US cust. allowed

US no 20$/10¤ /15€
Average average US no
Betfair Free 25¤ bet, average average Bwin None High average

US, Hong Kong, no Philippines,
Japan, China,
Thailand
US, Holland, yes Turkey
20$/20€ 10¤
50$/
35€/25¤

10$/
10€/10¤ Note: to go to bookmaker sites visit http://www.sportsbettingebook.com/bookmakers

50$/35€ /25¤

20$/20 € /10¤
50$/25¤ /35€
50$/25¤ /35€

Hunting down Bonuses:

As I said, you will not only profit from the arbitrage opportunities directly but indirectly also from thousands of extra bonus dollars you receive from bookmakers. You will get these bonuses easily because you wager big amounts of money if you place surebets. So just take advantage of them while you are playing! Here are some bonuses of the best 10 sports betting sites. At the other sites you even have more bonuses.

- Canbet: Very good sign up bonus (up to¤250!) that promotes long term play. Other than that, this room is just really comfortable for long play. They also have a free¤30 bet which you get after you have bet through your initial deposit (30$/30€20¤) once. After that, you must bet through your initial free bet amount three times before it is regarded as pure winnings.
-Bet365: A¤100 bet basket that promotes long term play for UK customers. For other customers a very enduring 15% sign up bonus is available. Other than that, this site is just very good and that is all that matters for long term customers; comfort.
-Ladbrokes: No bonus
-Mansion: No bonus
-BetUS: They have the highest sign up bonus, up to 5000$. This is really good if you bet a lot using arbitrage.
-Unibet: Deposit €15/$15/¤10, than place a bet of the same amount on anything. Whether you loose or win that bet does not matter: you will get a free 15€/15$/10¤ bet. It is like having a free second chance if you loose and free money if you win. The free bet must be bet through 3 times the amount of that free bet before it is regarded as pure winnings.
-Totesport: This room has always great bonuses. Currently amongst them: a free bet of¤25, and a sign up bonus of 100% up to¤100. The bonuses are just easy cash.
-Betfair: Free bet of¤25. Works as a second chance: whether you loose your initial¤25 first deposit bet does not matter. You will get it anyway. If you have deposited through Moneybookers, you will not be eligible for this free bet promotion!
-10bet: 50% bonus up to¤25. Just deposit¤50 and you will get this money after you place your bets. It thus works the same with a free bet. You will only get your money afterwards.
-Bwin: Deposit at least €10. No sign up, reload or loyalty bonuses. They are working on a loyalty bonus scheme.

All the (other) bookmakers can also be found at
http://www.sportsbettingebook.com/bookmakers/. Of course these bookmakers offer bonuses too. So the hunting does not stop here..

Most productive Bookmakers*

The listed bookmakers above are good for many reasons. They are very secure, safe, trusted and loyal to their customers. You won’t see strange things happen there. Limiting all risks is important for arbitrage bettors, but signing up at bookmakers who produce the most arbs is even more important. That is why we shall now give you a list of bookmakers who produce the most arbs. This does not mean that your first bookmaker accounts should be created at the 5 most productive bookmakers, but it is certainly a very important factor in choosing to do so.

Most productive Bookmakers top 20 Amount of arbs produced monthly
1. Betfair 20%
2. Betdaq 10%
3. Pinnacle Sports 8%
4. MatchMyWager 5%
5. BetOnBet 4,5%
6. TradebetX 4%
7. Bwin 3%
8. Bet365 2,8%
9. Unibet 2,6%
10. Stan James 2,5%
11. Betsafe 2,4%
12. Interwetten 2,3%
13. Expekt 2,3%
14. Astrabet 2,3%
15. Betoto 2,1%
16. 10Bet 2,0%
17. BetGun 1,9%
18. CentreBet 1,9%
19. SportingBet 1,9%
20. BetPci 1,8%
All other bookmakers 25%

*Please not that this list is based on arbitrage software statistics from previous months. Their statistics change as bookmakers change, but generally this will be a good guideline for the coming months, and we will of course update this list if big changes take place.

Section 6: The how’s and why’s of the Arbitrage betting system: a thoroughly explanation

If you have read the previous sections you have a solid and general understanding about arbitrage betting. But if you are looking for a more thoroughly explanation you can read this section. It involves arbitrage theory, legality, and FAQs. We will take a deep approach right here.

A. Theory
Assume the following situation: We consider an event with 2 possible outcomes (e.g. a tennis match - either Federer wins or Henman wins), the idea can be generalized to events with more outcomes, but we use this as an example (by the way: the best and most arbitrage opportunities come from Tennis, second best is Soccer).

The 2 bookmakers have different ideas about the chances of winning concerning the above mentioned players. They offer the following fixed-odds betting on the outcomes of the event:

Bookmaker 1 Bookmaker2 Outcome 1 1.25 1.43
Outcome 2 3.9 2.85

For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event will always be greater than 1.

As they are in this case: 1.25^{− 1} + 3.9^{− 1} = 1.056 and 1.43^{− 1} + 2.85^{− 1} = 1.051
The fraction above 1, is the bookmakers return rate, the amount the bookmaker earns on offering bets at some event. Bookmaker 1 will, in this example, expect to earn 5,6 % on bets on the tennis game. Usually these gaps will be in the order of 8 - 12 %. The idea is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of all the outcomes is below 1. This means that the bookmakers disagree about the chances of the outcomes. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit. For instance, if you bet on outcome 1 at bookmaker 2 and outcome 2 at bookmaker 1:
1.43^{− 1} + 3.9^{− 1} = 0.956 Placing a bet of €100 on outcome 1 with bookmaker 2 and a bet of €100 * 1.43 / 3.9 = 36.67 on outcome 2 at bookmaker 1 will ensure YOU (the better) a profit. In case outcome 1 occurs, you could collect r₁ = €100 * 1.43 = €143 from bookmaker 2. In case outcome 2 occurs, you could collect r₂ = €36.67 * 3.9 = €143 from bookmaker 1. You would have invested €136.67, but have collected €143, a profit of 6.33$ (4.6 %) no matter what the outcome of the event will be.
This counts for 2 odds o₁ and o₂, where

. If you wish to place stake s₁ at outcome 1, then you should place s₂ = s₁ * o₁ / o₂ at outcome 2, to even out the odds, and receive the same return no matter what the outcome of the event will be. In other words, if you have two outcomes a 2/1 and a 3/1, by covering the 2/1 with $500 and the 3/1 with $333, you are guaranteed to win $1000 at a cost of $833, giving a 16% profit. More often profits exist around the 4% mark or less.
B. Legality
“Why would bookmakers, a notably shrewd bunch of gentlemen, present me with the opportunity to remove large amounts of cash from their coffers, without any risk of financial loss to myself?”.
It is worth fully explaining the answer to that question, because you will then be absolutely clear why arbitrage opportunities occur, why the bookmakers cannot stop you taking their cash, and what you should do to benefit from the greatest ‘free offers’ ever made.
When bookmakers offer prices on an event, they do so, naturally, with the objective to make money, and they attempt to make that money by offering you odds which are slightly less than the real chance of the ‘event’ taking place. In our area, the ‘event’ we are talking about is usually a player or team winning a match. The bookmaker pockets the difference between the ‘real’ price of the player or team winning, and the price that he pays out to his customers. That difference will be his profit. It works like this; suppose we have a tennis match (or snooker, or darts, or anything else that takes your fancy) and the two players are of absolutely equal ability. Neither can be said to have a better chance than the other and, like the spin of a coin, this could go either way. Then the true chance of both players, just like that coin spin, would be ‘even money’.
So, if the bookmaker priced both players at ‘even money,’ and he took $50 for one player and $50 for the other, the better who picked the winner would be $50 richer. The backer who had chosen the loser would loose his $50 and the bookmaker would be exactly where he started. The bookmaker would be neither richer nor poorer; he would merely have transferred the cash from the backer of the loser to the backer of the winner, without any profit for himself. This is of course not his aim at all. The bookmaker therefore decides that, to make a profit, he needs to take a cut of the money invested. This means, irrespective of which individual backers wins or looses, the bookmaker will cash in some money.
He does this by altering the odds he offers to his customers. He reduces his prices such that backers receive slightly less than the true odds their selection has of winning. In the example of our two tennis players of exactly similar abilities, instead of offering ‘even money’ for each, the bookmaker takes a little something for himself and now offers 10/11 for each of them. When they were even money, you would only have had to stake ten pounds to win another ten pounds – that’s what ‘even money’ means. Now however, since the bookmaker his odds are 10/11, you would have to stake eleven pounds to win that ten. You are now receiving slightly worse than the player’s true odds of winning. But as a Sports Arbitrage Bettor, you are looking for bookmaker odds which you can use.
And you absolutely do not need any knowledge of the events you bet on!

Sideline Article

How does arbitrage in theory work?

Example of a sports arbitrage opportunity The mathematical formula which explains the process is quite simple. One searches between the various bookmakers and obtain the best odds for a particular sporting event. One then divides the total of the
bet between the possibilities and ensures that the winnings are bigger than the losses.
So in an event where there are 2 possible outcomes we recognize that..
Detroit Pistons - 1.85 in Canbet bookmakers L.A. Lakers - 2.50 in BetUS bookmakers

This means that if the Detroit Pistons wins our bet will be paid at 1.85 and in the case that the L.A. Lakers wins it will pay at 2.5. In order to find out if our bet will be a sure winner, we divide our total bet which in this case will be €1000 and we have our first equation.

X + Y = 1000
1.85 X = Z
2.50 Y = Z

Here we have our bet divided in the most optimal way. If Z is greater than €1000, our bet will have a sure profit, which will be Z – 1000. Working out this equation we have the following:
X = Z/1.85 Y = Z/2.50

Z/1.85 + Z/2.50 = 1000 4.35/4.625 Z = 1000 Z = 100/0.94
Z = 1063.21

Having resolved the equation we find that the bet will give €63.2 for each €1000 bet. This is a 6.32% profit. We can find out how to spread the bet by resolving the other unknown elements.
X = 574.7 Y = 425.3
This means that we should bet €574.7 on the Detroit Pistons at the odds of 1.85 and €425.3 on the L.A. Lakers at the odds of 2.5.
In case of three scores, as football has, the mathematical formula has three unknown elements and one more bet to make:
Manchester at Ladbrokes: 2.8
Draw at unibet: 3.3
Blackburn rovers win at unibet 3.5
Total profit: 5.7%²
Luckily for you, Arbwinner and other similar programs do all the calculation and spotting for you so you do not have to worry about this!
² http://www.arbwinner.com/index.php?ACTION=texts.php&end=work

 

The question still nagging you might be:

 

“Why do bookmakers provide us with so many opportunities to pick up this free money?”

Arbs occur because the men responsible for making the bookmakers their prices, the odds-compilers, have differences of opinion about the merits of the players or teams the bookies are assessing. You will not find a group of bigger egos in any place on the planet than at a meeting of odds compilers. These guys firmly believe that they know more about the particular sports they price up than anyone else, living or dead. For them, it is not just a price they are putting up, it is their marvellous opinion – and in their opinion, they are totally, unmistakably right.³