counters as mathematical geniuses who can keep track of every
card in a multiple decks of cards. While there may very well be
people who can do this kind of thing, card counting is not about
keeping track of every card. The idea behind counting cards is
to keep track of the players statistical likelihood of winning a
hand and then adjusting betting and playing accordingly.
The idea behind card counting is simple gambling strategy. Any
professional gambler will tell you that the way to win at gambling is to bet more when you have the advantage and bet less
(or not at all) when you do not. It is that simple. In black
jack, certain cards remaining in the deck are good for the
player and certain ones are not. If you "count" these cards, you
will always know when you have the advantage.
Edward O. Thorp's work confirmed that 10's and A's remaining in
the deck were good for the player, while 5's and 6's remaining
in the deck were bad for the player. He worked out the circum
stances under which particular combinations of cards remaining
in the deck gave the player and advantage over the house. He
also presented the first two card-counting systems, Thorp's
five-count and Thorp's ten-count. The latter, which is more pow
erful, was based on determining the ration between 10's and non
10's remaining in the deck. Card counting was born from irrefu
table logic: Keep track of the cards: make small bets when the
deck favors the house and large bets when it favors the players.
Thorp's analysis was later improved upon by the work of many
others, notably Julian Braun, Lawrence Revere, Peter Griffin,
Stanford Wong, Ken Uston, Arnold Snyder, and Lance Humble. Today
the game is understood at a rather deep level, and sophisticated
systems exist that give the knowledgeable player a distinct edge
over the house. Which Cards Matter?
The object of card counting is to keep track of cards that are
advantageous to the player. The simple question is, then, "which
cards matter?"
The card most beneficial to the player is the 10. 10's are ad
vantages to the player for several reasons. One, they will cause
the dealer to bust since he is required to take cards based on
the rules of play. He may not take other factors into account
while playing (like you do!). Two, they turn hands that you dou
ble down on into very strong hands (which is why you double down
on those hands, by the way). Three, they are used to create
blackjacks. Remember that blackjacks are more beneficial to the
player since getting one pays 3 to 2 but losing to one only
costs the original bet! Another important card for the player is
the A. Aces present soft doubling (and hitting) opportunities
and they create blackjacks. Remember - blackjack is more impor
tant to the player than the house!
The worst cards for the player are the 5 and the 6 (and 2, 3,
and 4 to a lesser degree). The reason these are not good for the
player is simple - they are beneficial to the house. Since the
house is forced by the rules of play to take cards on any hand
lower than 17, the 5 and the six present the possibility of very strong hands for the dealer (remember that 10's are not advanta
geous to the dealer since they make "busts" of these hands).
Before we begin to learn how to count we should talk about how
this will help us. You should remember that the purpose of
counting is to know when the player has an advantage and when he
does not. This knowledge will do nothing for you unless you do
something with it. What you want to do is adjust your betting
and your play based on your advantage.
Adjusting Your Bets
Adjusting your bets is very straightforward. When the composi
tion of the deck is in your favor, you bet more. When it is not,
you bet less. Very simple. Learning just this can give you as
much as a 2% advantage against the house. If that advantage does
not sound like much, keep in mind that many casino slot machines
only produce a 2 - 3% advantage for the casino and that is
enough to make billions of dollars of profit for the casino.
Granted, this is at a much higher volume than you will play at
but remember that bet sizes are much smaller.
Adjusting Your Play
Learning to adjust your play based on deck composition is not an
easy task, but the rewards are phenomenal. Taking this step can
increase your advantage by another 2% for a total of 4% against
the house. The good news is that you can learn this with a lot of practice. The principles are simple but mastering this level
of play takes many hours of practice.
An expert card counter will adjust play in many different ways
depending on the composition of the deck. It is common for an
expert card counter to do things that "break the rules" of basic
strategy like:
1. Standing earlier if the deck is very 10 rich -- if the dealer
can bust, so can you!
2. Standing later if the deck is very 10 poor.
3. Splitting 10's when the deck is extremely 10 rich.
4. Doubling down on A, 9 when the deck is extremely 10 rich.
Of course, the most important play adjustment can be deciding when to start playing at a table and when to stop.