number of refinements have given us the current optimal set of
principles for standing, hitting, doubling, splitting, and sur
rendering. These, along with the other more sophisticated forms
of play were worked out by using Monte Carlo techniques based on
the analysis of literally billions of hands. If I tell you that
you should hit a total of 16 against a dealer's 7, there is no
specific mathematical proof behind this recommendation. It
emerged from an analysis of the several million times this
situation emerged in the Monte Carlo analysis of the game. Hit
ting a 16 against a 7 loses less often than standing. Sure, fol
lowing this advice produces a bust on a lot of these hands, but
analysis shows, utterly compellingly, that if you don't hit his
hand you are more likely to get beat by a higher total -- like
17.
When possible, I will give a logical analysis of particular as
pects of basic strategy, but there are going to be situations
where the reader is just going to have to accept the outcomes of
the Monte Carlo analysis. The following description of basic
strategy is based on the multi-deck game found in several Atlan
tic City and Las Vegas casinos, where the dealer stands on a
soft seventeen, pairs may be re-split once, doubling down is permitted after a split, and the player may double down on any
two cards. Other games require some minor adjustments that I'll
note where appropriate. However, you should never give up an
edge against the casino. I highly recommend playing only where
the rules are more favorable to the player.
"Soft" & "Hard" Hands
A hard hand is a hand without an A where the payer's total is
given by the face values of the cards, or a hand with an A that
can only be counted as 1. A soft hand is a hand with an A which
can be counted as either 1 or 11. For example, A, 4 is a soft
hand because the A may be counted as a 1 or 11; but A, 4, 7 is
not, since counting the A as 11 would be a bust.
Hit or Stand
The guidelines for hitting are rather straightforward. If the
dealer shows a 2 or 3, you continue to take a hit until you have
a hard 13 or a soft 18. If the dealer shows 4, 5, or 6, you con
tinue to take a hit until you reach a hard 12 or a soft 18. If
the dealer shows 7 or 8, you continue to take a hit until you
have a hard 17 or a soft 18. It the dealer shows anything higher
than 8, you continue to take a hit until you have a hard 17 or a
soft 19. Dealer Shows Hit Until You Have
2 or 3 hard 13 or soft 18
4, 5, or 6 hard 12 or soft 18
7 or 8 hard 17 or soft 18
9, 10, or A hard 17 or soft 19
Though there is no mathematical "proof" of these principles
there is actually some simple logic to them. Don't forget that
you are also playing the odds based on billions of simulations
of blackjack hands. Let's look at some of the logic.
•If the dealer shows a 7 or above, then the most likely two-card
total is 17 or above (with a 10 or an A in the hole), so you
are going to have to take a card on any total under 17 or
likely lose.
•When the dealer shows a card less than 7, the two-card total
will likely be less than 17 (it can be exactly 17 with a 6 and
an A), and the dealer will be forced to take another card.
Since there are more 10's in the deck than any other denomination, the dealer will have a fairly high probability of busting
and you will win.
•If you were to take a card with a total between 12 and 16 you
would be likely to bust. In situations like this the proper
play is to let the dealer pull. If the high card shows up and
there is a high card in the hole, you will win.
•Hit a total of 12 against a dealer 2 or 3. I've seen books that
tell you to stand in these situations. They are wrong. You must
take a card.
•Hit a 16 against a dealer's 7. Many inexperienced players have
trouble believing that this is the proper play but it is.
Countless computer runs have proved it again and again. From
the players point of view a total of 16 is no better than a to
tal of 12; you can win with such totals only when the dealer
breaks. Besides, there are still five cards that can help out a
16 (A, 2, 3, 4, 5).
•You take a card whenever you have A, 6 (unless you double down)
and you hit an A, 7 against a 9, 10, or A. It's true that you
will sometimes find yourself going "backwards" and have a hand
that is "weaker" than you just had. However, computer simula
tions consistently show that this is the proper play.
•It may come as a surprise to inexperienced players, but 18 is
not a strong hand when facing a dealer 9, 10, or A. When to Split
The guidelines for splitting are best described in a table.
Split If Dealer Shows
A , A Any Card
10 , 10 Never
9 , 9 2 - 9 except 7
8 , 8 Any Card
7 , 7 2 - 7
6 , 6 2 - 6
5 , 5 Never
4 , 4 5 or 6
3 , 3 2 - 7
2 , 2 2 - 7 Again, when there is some logic behind these guidelines.
•Always split A's. The totals of 2 or 12 are not nearly as good
as hitting 11's.
•Never split 10's. Two 10's is a great hand -- don't screw it
up!
•Never split 5's, but you may want to double down!
•Splitting 4's is a close call. Don't do it in one or two deck
games. Do it in multideck games when the dealer shows a 5 or 6.
•Split 9's against a dealer card of 2 - 9 except 7. The reason
for this exception is simple. You have 18. The dealer's most
probable total is 17. Don't screw up a good thing.
•Splitting 8's, like 4's, depends on casino rules. Always do it
when the dealer shows 2 - 9. If the dealer shows 10 or A and
you happen to be lucky enough to be playing in a game that al
lows early surrender, you should surrender. If surrender is not
an option, split.
•Splitting 6's and 7's is straightforward. If the dealer's card
is higher than your card, don't split.
•Always split 2's or 3's if the dealer's card is less than 8.
You should also note that the "value" of splitting is increased
if you are playing in a game that allows doubling down after a
split. When to Double Down
The principle behind doubling down (and splitting) is that it
increases the amount of your money in play when the conditions
of the hand are in your favor. These are both very important
parts of expert blackjack play and must be mastered. Once again,
the best way to present the guidelines is in a table.
Double Down If Dealer Shows
11 2 - 10
10 2 - 9
9 3 - 6
A, 7 or A, 6 3 - 6
A, 5 or A, 4 4 - 6
A, 3 or A, 2 5 or 6 When to Surrender
Late surrender is still permitted in some casinos. The guide
lines are straightforward. Use the table below to decide when to
surrender.
If Dealer Shows Surrender If Holding
A, 10, or 9 any 16 except 8 , 8
10 15
Early surrender provides a tremendous advantage for the player
which is why you may never find a game that allows it. If you
are lucky enough to find one, use the table below to decide when
to surrender.
If Dealer Shows Early Surrender if Holding
A All hard 5 - 7 and 12 - 17
10 All hard 14 - 16
9 10, 6 and 9 , 7 When to Take Insurance
Never! Next topic.
"Wait a minute!" I can hear many players saying. Don't you al
ways take insurance when you have blackjack yourself? That's
what everyone tells me.
Well, let's stop and take a look at that situation more closely.
Many people do believe that this is a "no lose" situation. The
logic goes something like this. If your original bet is $10 and
you have blackjack and you take insurance ($5), the hand will
play out in one of two ways. Either the dealer will have black
jack or he will not. If he does, the hand is a push but you will
win $10 because of the insurance. If he does not, you will win
the hand but not the insurance bet and you will still win $10.
While taking insurance when you have blackjack seems like a
"win" in every case (because it is), it is *not* your best play.
What most inexperienced players fail to realize is that the in
surance is a side bet. It is completely unrelated to the origi
nal bet. Let's take a closer look.
You are guaranteed a "win" when you take insurance, but you are
missing the opportunity to play the odds for a larger win. As
sume you are playing alone with the dealer in a six deck game
and you bet $10 on your hand and bet $5 on insurance. A six deck shoe contains 96 10's and 214 non-10's. After you and the dealer
have been dealt your cards, you have blackjack and the dealer
shows and A, so there are 95 10's and 214 non-10's left. There
are 95 ways for the dealer to have a 10 in the hole, and if you
take insurance, you will win $10 on each of them for an income
of $950. However, there are 214 ways for the dealer to have a
non-10 in the hole, and on those occasions you will lose $5
each, for a loss of $1,070. This is an expected loss of $120 -
7.8 percent -- on 309 possibilities. A very bad bet!
It should be noted that there are certain times when taking in
surance is advantageous to the player, but these circumstances can only be detected by the best card counters.