UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2010 found that if global emissions do not exceed 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (ranging from 39 to 44 GtCO2e) in 2020, and global emissions are rapidly reduced afterwards, then it is “likely” that global warming will be limited to 2°C.
“If we can’t act boldly for ourselves, at least, can we act boldly for our children and grandchildren and generations yet unborn.”
Asif Ali Zardari, President of Pakistan
The report further points out that if emissions pledges announced by countries are fulfilled, global emissions are still expected to increase to between 49 GtCO2e to 53 GtCO2e in 2020. If it continues to be business-as-usual, then emissions in 2020 are estimated to be an even higher 56 GtCO2e.
The challenge therefore is clearly to reduce emissions, under the most lenient conditions, by 12 GtCO2e. It is obvious that without action – immediate action – this is an impossible task. However, the UNEP report concedes that countries can reduce the gap from 9 to 5 GtCO2e by adopting their higher ambition pledges (a gain of around 2-3 GtCO2e) and by the international community agreeing to the more stringent accounting rules for implementing the pledges (a gain of 1-2 GtCO2e).
So the gap is brought down to a much more achievable 5 GtCO2e – a cut that with a little effort can most definitely be achieved. The question is – are we, and our political leaders, willing to commit?
| I. | Improving the energy mix Without energy, we cannot feed our populations; provide water, sanitation or good quality health care. Without energy we cannot produce the goods we need for everyday life or get our products to market. Without energy there can be no economic growth and no hope for the millions of people living in poverty. Energy is the vital ingredient of modern life. Yet we cannot supply the energy we need at the moment and demand is growing fast; in the developed countries to sustain their growth, and in the developing countries to power their growth and progress. The challenge is to satisfy these energy requirements in a fashion that is both responsible and sustainable. To meet this challenge we will need both to produce cleaner energy and use the energy we have more wisely. |
Yet at the heart of every challenge is an opportunity. The opportunity here is to make the most of the natural and abundant resources that the world is blessed with; closing the energy gap with power generated from renewable resources, which are clean, green and plentiful.
Modern renewables have astonishingly high potential reserves, compared to energy consumption today; while oil and conventional gas may peak between 150 to 160 years, wind and solar alone have enough resources to generate electricity needs for many centuries. Modern renewable energy has over one million GW of estimated potential power capacity.
"There's nothing alternative about an energy source which is getting more investment than fossil and nuclear combined."
Michael Liebreich, CEO, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The average global power consumption currently stands at 15 terawatt (TW) – and the global wind power potential alone is 72 TW. To add to it, wind power shows potential to significantly reduce dependence on imported fuels and improve air quality. A single 1.67-MW turbine would produce over 5,000 MWh of electricity per year and reduce CO2 emissions by over 3,000 tons – equivalent to planting 85,514 trees. That means that the CO2 reduction by each average sized turbine is equivalent to taking approximately 500 cars off the road.
A report by The Climate Group estimates that, by 2050, emission savings from wind technologies would increase to 2.14 GtCO2 (4.5 per cent of overall energy-related emissions reduction or about 12 per cent of emissions savings in power sector).
“Wind energy is the most established, the most significant – you have to start somewhere.”
David Kirkpatrick, technology reporter, The Daily Beast
Our energy future is uncertain. As energy demand increases, traditional fuels of oil, coal and gas are running out. The world is – both literally and metaphorically – near the end of the line for fossil fuels, and any interruption in that supply could leave us without power. Contemporary energy security demands a mixed basket of energy sources. A move from current carbon-based energy usage to a more balanced energy portfolio delivers this, as well as opening up almost unlimited business opportunities and a pathway to creating thousands of green jobs.
A report by The Climate Group states that the solar thermal sector currently employs more than 600,000 people worldwide. The report pegs solar’s potential at approximately one million jobs by 2050. Wind’s employment generation potential is pegged an additional 2.2 million by 2020. The EWEA estimates that in Europe alone every additional MW of wind installed created 14.33 jobs.
Further, concentrated solar power can reduce 0.24 GtCO2e by 2020 (seven per cent of emissions reduction in the power sector). Along with solar photovoltaic this potential increases to about 2.51 GtCO2e by 2050.
Renewable sources are not only part of the solution to our depleting fossil fuels; they are also the way towards a healthier planet. It arms a country with the power to adapt and alleviate climate change.
The IPCC special report on renewable energy sources (IPCC 2011) presents four scenarios, with the contribution of renewable energy sources to global electricity production ranging from 21 to 38 per cent in 2020. The highest estimates would lead to an extra electricity production of 4,000 TWh. This could result in an emission reduction potential of 1.5 – 2.5 GtCO2e. This change would single-handedly contribute to almost half of the emission reductions required to keep the temperature rise within 2°C by 2020. The IPCC report also mentions that, with the right backing, renewable energy could supply close to 80 per cent of world’s energy by 2050.
However, if these changes do not happen, under “business-as-usual” circumstances the emissions from fossil fuels and industry alone could be in the range of 33 to 46 GtCO2, at the upper end, higher than the total allowed in 2020 if we are to keep global temperature increases below 2°C.
Tracking Carbon Emissions
Total Carbon Emissions by Nation
Per Capita Carbon Emissions by Nation
Source: Image created for Miller-McCune by Standford Kay; based on 2007 Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration
| II. | Improving energy efficiency Studies by the International Energy Agency show that, by 2050, energy efficiency has the potential to be the biggest single source of emissions savings in the energy sector. This would have both environmental and economic benefits: energy-efficiency measures cut waste and often save money. Energy efficiency improvements are applicable to almost all sectors – from industry to transport. It also goes beyond development divides. For example in India, privatization of one Delhi utility has led to a reduction of distribution losses from 53 per cent to 15 per cent, leading to savings of more than USD 1.1 billion in 2011-12. This was made possible by investments in grid infrastructure, electronic monitoring systems, a computerized management system, and engaging citizens to reduce power theft. On a micro level, there are many technologies for smarter use of energy; for example, already today we have LED lights, refrigerators with low energy consumption, energy efficient buildings and fuel saving vehicles. “In business, we need to focus on non-polluting, resource-efficient business - the 'green' race is on." Bjoern Stigson, President of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development It is a myth that energy efficiency is expensive. The opposite is true. An example is Suzlon’s own headquarters – ‘Suzlon One Earth’ – located in India, which is one of the greenest corporate buildings anywhere in the world.
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But perhaps the best part is that it cost 10 per cent less to build One Earth than a conventional building of its size.
This is the silver lining of the situation we are in. Climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts throw open the doors to great business opportunities which did not exist earlier.
For example, the electric-car segment in Europe, US and China is likely to witness an extraordinary growth in the near future.
Innovations like desalination have immense business value – combine this with an offshore wind farm and you have a brand new business model – sustainable and profitable.
I fervently believe that today’s business leaders must shape a greener world to halt climate change. Whenever possible we should strive to employ life-changing solutions that make a difference to our planet – and also deliver an ROI.
UNEP’s Bridging the Emissions Gap has shown the potential of emission reduction by 2020 through simple measures of efficiency in different sectors.
The above table makes it clear that, together with a balanced energy mix, efforts in energy efficiency can close the emission gap, and maintain a temperature rise within 2°C.
