Military and Security Developments Involving the DPRK 2015
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) remains one of the most critical security challenges for the United States and the broader international community. In particular, North Korea’s willingness to undertake provocative and destabilizing behavior, including attacks on the Republic of Korea (ROK), its continued development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, and its proliferation of weapons in contravention of United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs) pose a serious threat to the United States, the region, and the world.
Since assuming control in December 2011, Kim Jong Un has solidified his grip on power by embracing the coercive tools used by his father and grandfather. His regime has used force and the threat of force combined with inducements to quell domestic dissent and strengthen internal security; co-opt the North Korean military and elites; develop strategic military capabilities to deter external attack; and challenge the ROK and the U.S.-ROK Alliance. In April 2013, Kim announced the “byungjin” policy, which emphasizes the parallel development of the country’s economy and nuclear weapons program, to reinforce his regime’s domestic, diplomatic, economic, and security interests.
North Korea fields a large, conventional, forward-deployed military that retains the capability to inflict serious damage on the ROK, despite significant resource shortfalls and aging hardware. The U.S.-ROK Alliance has deterred large-scale conventional attacks by maintaining a robust combined defense posture and strong military readiness. On a smaller scale, however, the DPRK has demonstrated a willingness to use military provocation to achieve national goals.
In August 2015, two North Korean landmines exploded in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which seriously wounded two ROK soldiers, raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula for several weeks, and was resolved through high-level inter-Korean talks.
North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear technology and capabilities and development of intermediate-and long-range ballistic missile programs underscore the growing threat it poses to regional stability and U.S. national security. North Korea’s pursuit of a submarine-launched ballistic missile capability also highlights the regime’s commitment to diversifying its missile force, strengthening the missile force’s survivability, and finding new ways to coerce its neighbors.
Furthermore, North Korea continues to proliferate ballistic missile technology prohibited under UNSCRs 1718, 1874, 2087, and 2094, exacerbating the security challenge for the United States and the international community.
Given the continued and growing threat from North Korea, its nuclear and missile programs, and its proliferation of related technology, the U.S. Department of Defense will continue to manage the North Korean security challenge through close coordination and consultation with the international community, particularly the ROK and Japan. The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korea’s continued provocations and steadfast in its commitments to allies in the region, including the extended deterrence commitments provided through both the nuclear umbrella and conventional forces.
In early 2015, Kim began reaching out diplomatically to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Russia to improve North Korea’s economy, lessen its dependence on China, and counteract international efforts to disparage the regime’s human rights record. These efforts have had little success, and North Korea remains unable to significantly expand ties with foreign partners.
In August 2015, Kim undertook another coercive campaign against the ROK. Tensions on the Peninsula surged after North Korean landmines severely injured two ROK soldiers inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on August. In response, the ROK resumed the use of loudspeakers across the DMZ for propaganda broadcasts, the first time in over 11 years. In addition, the ROK placed military units on heightened alert, and U.S. Forces Korea adopted an enhanced watch posture.
North Korea responded with loudspeaker broadcasts of its own. On August 20, ROK forces reported incoming artillery fire from North Korean units and responded by firing artillery into the DMZ. North Korea then issued an ultimatum demanding South Korea disable the loudspeakers. With tensions remaining high, the two sides met to discuss an end to the crisis. After more than 43 hours of high-level talks, North Korea expressed regret over the August 4 landmine incident, South Korea agreed to stop propaganda broadcasts, and both sides agreed to hold further talks on improving relations.