William Jennings Bryan Avoids the US-Filipino War,
Ends American Empire
* Bryan was a small p populist, not a member of the Populist Party but very much of their mindset and principles. Most of the Populist Party thought so well of him, they endorsed him in 1896. Unabashedly a commoner, Bryan was anti elite, anti business, a powerful public speaker, but also bigoted and ignorant, an extreme fundamentalist who distrusted science and knew little but his own political sphere. But Bryan was also the best hope the US had to avoid becoming a colonial empire, dominating other nations.
* Bryan, it is true, was once an avid imperialist, a grand total of one time. He was one of the most enthusiastic supporters of the Spanish-American War. But Bryan was also strongly opposed to US control of the Philippines. He was one of the most mesmerizing speakers and writers ever to run for president, able to whip into crowds into near hysteria. His “cross of gold” speech was hailed as one of the most powerful ever given, able to win him the Democratic nomination in 1896 through sheer eloquence alone.
* But Bryan was also a very poor administrator. His record as Secretary of State shows a man largely indifferent to the subtleties of statecraft. He was largely isolationist, except for the Spanish-American War. For the humanitarian purpose of preventing high body counts, this is a good thing. At least 200,000, possibly as many as over a million Filipinos would not be killed or die of disease or hunger brought by war.
* It is not easy to imagine how Bryan wins the election, given how fanatically business opposed him. Wealthy elites spent massive amounts to defeat him, over $3 billion in today's terms. Bryan would have to win all five of the states with the closest margins of defeat for him, under 5%. That narrowly hands him the election.
* There was a third party, the National Democrats, made up of pro business Democrats opposed to Bryan, even financially supported by Republicans. Their candidates were two of the oldest men to ever run for president and vice president, John Palmer and Simon Buckner at, respectively, 79 and 73 years old. Keep in mind this was in 1896, when the average life expectancy was under 50. An illness ending Palmer’s life, or even keeping him recovering in a hospital, would be enough to end the National Democrats and make Bryan's election easier.
* In 1897, when Bryan would take office, the Spanish-American War was over a year away. Hawaii’s queen had been overthrown by American plantation owners with the help of US Marines, against the wished of the previous president, Grover Cleveland. Cleveland then refused to take Hawaii and make it part of the US. When McKinley became president, he was still reluctantly avoiding war. But all that changed when the USS Maine blew up accidentally. Americans' war hysteria blamed Spain and pushed the US into war.
* How would Bryan deal with it? As said before, he supported the Spanish-American War but opposed US conquest of the Philippines. The Spanish-American War likely happens even quicker, since Bryan had none of McKinley’s hesitation. Spain still loses its territories to the US. The change happens when US General Otis betrays Filipinos and pursues war without Washington's approval or knowledge. Bryan would fire Otis, perhaps even charge Otis and other Army officers with war crimes, and halt the war. The US-Philippines War ends quickly, within a month or two instead of three brutal years, and the Philippines becomes an independent nation under its new President Emilio Aguinaldo.
* Bryan's ineptness at foreign policy does mean it is quite possible the Philippines may face a take over from another power, likely Britain, Germany or Japan. Of the three, the most likely would be Germany. German warships had actually been off the coast of the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. German imperial conquest, even before the Third Reich, could be extremely brutal, as their record shows in Namibia where German troops tried to exterminate the Herrero. But German colonialism would also be for only twenty years, since Germany was defeated in 1918. The League of Nations may choose to give independence to the Philippines, or they may pass control to Japan as the closest major power.
* The Japanese Empire likely would treat the Philippines much as they had Korea and Taiwan. There would be campaigns of extreme brutality and forced assimilation for a little over a quarter century. But after Japanese defeat in World War II (still almost a certainty), the Philippines would be independent. The same is true if it had been Japan trying to conquer the Philippines after the US left.
* Britain already had control of some Pacific islands plus Hong Kong in China. It may choose to try and take the Philippines. If so, the Philippines likely become independent about the same time as another former British colony, Malaysia. And like Malaysia, the Philippines become independent after the British crush another Communist uprising in a brutal war. Or, since Britain fought the disastrous unpopular Boer War only a year after the Spanish-American War, Britain may back off their attempted conquest of the Philippines.
* All these potential conquests may be avoided if Bryan appoints an able cabinet with even a single member, or a general or admiral, that pushes him to make the Philippines an American protectorate. A Philippines with a US naval base in Manila would keep out Germany or any other empire. But the Philippines today would not necessarily be more prosperous. It has long been dominated by a mestizo elite of Spanish-Filipino and Spanish-Chinese ancestry that keeps other Filipinos poor, and Aguinaldo and most other Filipino presidents were part of that elite. Still, up to a million deaths avoided is praiseworthy by any standard.
* What of the other former Spanish colonies take by the US? Cuba likely is far better off. In our own times, Congress passed the Teller Amendment narrowly, barring the US from taking over Cuba. Likely it passes by a greater margin or is never even needed, with Bryan giving independence to Cuba almost immediately. If US interference is less, the chance of Castro or another like him coming to power is also lessened.
* Puerto Rico also likely becomes independent. Spain had already given Puerto Rico local self rule only a month before the US invasion. There is an outside chance Britain or France may seek to take over either island. Again, US protectorate and navy bases could stop that and still leave both nations independent. Independent Puerto Rico likely would be much like its neighbor the Dominican Republic, right wing dictatorships backed by the US alternating with leftist populist governments. It would be poorer than it is now, but also not utterly dependent on the US economy.
* Perhaps only Guam might not be given independence, given its small size and nearness to Japan. What would happen to Hawaii? Plantation owners not only overthrew the legitimate Hawaiian Queen, Liliuokalani, they defeated an attempt by Hawaiians to retake their homeland. The so called Republic of Hawaii limited the vote to only 4,000 out of a population of over 100,000. Only white property owners could vote, with Asian voting specifically forbidden and almost all Native Hawaiians barred by literacy tests. It was a one party state, and in the only election, less than 1% of the population voted. There is no reason to think this republic-in-name-only would be any different had it continued.
* The US Congress in their Blount Report recognized the overthrow was illegal. But previous President Cleveland briefly recognized the Hawaiian plantation owners’ government and declined to push them out. Bryan opposed the take over of Hawaii by the US. Whether he would send in troops to give Hawaii back to Hawaiians is difficult to say. He believed in the US as an advocate of freedom, but he was also an ugly racist. (His infamous comment on Haiti was, “Imagine it, niggers speaking French.”) Pulling out US troops is one thing, but sending US troops against other white Americans is another.
* Whether Hawaii stays independent and never becomes part of the US depends on if Bryan is re elected. Would he be? His opponents feared his most popular issue, free silver, hurting the economy. Free silver was a crackpot idea, that coining silver and fixing its price could help farmers. Even trying to do so could wreck the economy. But it was the economic crash of 1893 that made many sympathetic to Populist ideas. Another crash could lead to fairly radical Populist ideas becoming law.
* These ideas included public ownership of railroads and telephone companies, public co operative farmers' monopolies, and a ban on government money to wealthy people or companies, or as we would call it today, corporate welfare, as well as ideas not controversial today like income tax and direct election of senators. (There were also bigoted ideas in Populism, restricting immigration and foreign ownership of land.) If so, Bryan is re elected, and Hawaii stays an independent nation. Ironically, one Populist proposal was only a single term for presidents. But any amendment for that would take time, and Bryan’s enormous ego likely would push him to seek a second term until that amendment passed.
* Hawaii’s white racist minority plantation elites could not stay in power indefinitely. Every time they had labor strikes, they brought in workers from another nation, first China, then Japan, then Black Americans, Puerto Ricans, and Filipinos. The islands have some of the most troubled labor history anywhere. At some point the plantation owners may fall from a general strike. More likely, Japan may decide to take over. Or these white racist elites could ask to be a British colony as the second best choice after the US.
* If Japan takes over, much like any possible takeover of the Philippines, they rule with great brutality and forced assimilation. Again, any takeover ends with their defeat in World War II, which is still almost certain. Instead of Pearl Harbor being bombed, the target may be San Diego. If Britain takes over, Hawaiian independence may come at about the same time as Malaysia's, in the 1960s.
* But a better parallel would be Singapore's. Both nations are ideal in their location for trade. In the 1950s, Hawaii in the middle of the Pacific would be a perfect stop over for growing international air travel. An independent Hawaii would be far more prosperous, perhaps without the crasser tourism, and self rule instead of being a colony with much of her wealth exported to the mainland US.
* If Bryan had become president, both populism and anti imperialism would be mainstream ideas. Both radical economic ideas and, unfortunately, anti immigrant beliefs receive a boost. Above all, American empire is far more likely to never be, better for both the US and the world.