Al Gore Avoids the Iraq War and Possibly Most Katrina Deaths
* Imagining Al Gore winning the election in 2000 is extremely easy. It does not take any imagination for the simple and self evident truth: Gore did win. He won both the popular vote and the electoral vote. The second was only awarded to GW Bush based on the most spectacular and brazen bit of election theft seen in the US since 1876. (See further discussion in Notes.)
* The immediate cause of Gore being prevented from taking office were five openly partisan Supreme Court justices and intimidation efforts by Republicans in Florida. To imagine Gore being allowed to take his rightful office one has to only have a single one of the five justices decide to actually follow the law. Another possibility is the obvious: Gore could have run a campaign not so utterly incompetent and beaten Bush more decisively. (The most ludicrous and hyper-partisan claim blamed the Green Party and Ralph Nader. Most Nader voters never voted before, and the remaining would have voted roughly evenly for Bush and Gore had Nader not run.)
* The unnecessary Second Iraq War, the failed response to Hurricane Katrina, and the bungled Afghanistan War were all direct consequences of GW Bush being appointed president. Had the 2000 election not been stolen, all of these tragedies are prevented. From 100,000 to 1 million deaths in the Second Iraq War are avoided. Nine tenths of the deaths from Hurricane Katrina may be avoided. The number of deaths in the Afghanistan War also likely are greatly reduced.
* The attacks on September 11 brought a wave of outrage and a mix of demands for both justice and revenge against Al Qaeda terrorists. Much like the sinking of the USS Maine enraged the public to seek a war against Spain when it had nothing to do with the sinking, many Americans were misled into a war with Iraq, a nation that had no ties to Al Qaeda. Yet even with that flood of anger, it still look quite a lot to push the US public into war.
* Opposition to both the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars was the highest in both US and world history, even greater than either the US-Vietnam War or the Gulf War. Demonstrations against these wars on February 15, 2003 in over 600 cities drew over seven million people and are listed by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest in world history. Within the US, opposition ranged from Catholic bishops and libertarian minded conservatives to the Green Party and soldiers refusing to deploy to Iraq. Governments in 54 nations opposed the Second Iraq War. The United Nations, especially Secretary Kofi Annan and Inspector Hans Blix, were a leading source of opposition as were religious leaders Pope John Paul II and the Archbishop of Canterbury.
* The Democratic Party was split, with slightly over half of Democratic Congressmen voting for the war initially. John Kerry, Democratic presidential candidate in 2004, voted for war, and his campaign undercut antiwar protesters, asking them to stop demonstrating. But Gore opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. With him as president leading an already strong opposition, the Second Iraq War never happens. Saddam Hussein likely remains in power, isolated, with a Kurdish region in practice remaining independent. Iraq remains a dictatorship instead of an extremely limited corrupt attempt at democracy.
* Believe it or not, Iraq would be better off. Up to a million Iraqis do not die in civil war. One in seven Iraqis do not have to flee Iraq, and one in seven more do not have to flee within Iraq. There are even fewer people tortured. The Iraqi government today carries out a higher rate of torture than Hussein did. It is quite possible Hussein may be overthrown later instead, perhaps during the Arab Spring of 2011, if it happens.
* As for the Afghanistan War, Gore likely would order a larger invasion force than Bush did. It is difficult to think of a potential president at the time who would not invade Afghanistan. Not Gore, not GW Bush nor Jeb Bush nor McCain. Perhaps only Bill Bradley or Ralph Nader would not invade Afghanistan, and neither of them had a chance of winning.
* With the US only fighting the Afghanistan War instead of a useless war in Iraq most experts correctly predicted would fail, it is likely Al Qaeda and the Taliban are defeated far sooner. Osama Bin Laden likely would be captured quite early. In December 2001, US troops came within one hour of capturing him at Tora Bora, Afghanistan.
* The failure to capture him was partly because so few troops were sent. Only 8,000 US troops initially went to Afghanistan. There are more police in many major US cities. So few troops were sent because the Bush administration was going to send them to Iraq instead. Without the Iraq diversion, Gore agrees to a larger force that captures Bin Laden. Al Qaeda would be decapitated, badly weakened within four months of September 11. The lack of an Iraq War also means Al Qaeda has far less of a recruiting tool as well as an easy target for terrorism, US troops in Iraq.
* How the Afghanistan War ultimately turns out is more difficult to predict. There is no reason Gore would not be drawn into nation building in Afghanistan, much as Bush chose to. The invasion would likely be every bit as difficult and costly. But without over 100,000 US troops bogged down in Iraq, Afghanistan nation building has more of a chance.
* Would Gore be re elected? If the Afghanistan War goes poorly, he may face a challenge from his left, such as Kucinich, who is very unlikely to win the nomination. From John Kerry, who is slightly to Gore's right, the challenge would be more credible. The most likely GOP opponents are GW Bush again, John McCain, and perhaps Jeb Bush. Should any of these four defeat Gore, they likely send even more troops to Afghanistan. While either Bush or McCain favor a war with Iraq, without the recent anger from September 11, the public is far less likely to allow it. By 2004, American opinion even on the war in Afghanistan was already split down the middle. UN inspectors also found no biochemical weapons in Iraq back in 2002. The fact that Saddam Hussein visibly failed to be much of a threat to anyone besides Iraqis makes an invasion almost impossible to force.
* If Gore is re elected, or if any of the other possible candidates defeat Gore besides GW Bush, Louisiana and Mississippi are likely much better off during Hurricane Katrina. It took a unique mix of cronyism and incompetence to bungle the response to Katrina by appointing a campaign manager's friend with virtually no experience as the head of FEMA. Likely nine tenths or more of the deaths from Katrina are avoided. (See Section Four.)
* But Africa would be worse off without GW Bush. Gore, Kerry, McCain, and Jeb Bush have never indicated any concern for AIDS in Africa. Gore in fact faced protests by AIDS activists over his lobbying for drug companies, pressuring South Africa's government to not allow cheaper generic anti-AIDS drugs. McCain also seem confused by the issue, publicly saying he was not sure if condoms help prevent AIDS. Except for the AIDS issue, the world is far better off if GW Bush had not been appointed president by five Supreme Court justices, instead remaining a poor businessman and a figurehead as the Governor of Texas.