McClellan's Failed Civil War and Reconstruction
* McClellan is the second most controversial military leader in US history, after Custer. A superb organizer, he was a timid general who repeatedly failed to defeat the enemy, though his forces always outnumbered them. He did win early victories against much smaller forces, earning him the ludicrous overblown title the Young Napoleon. After that, his only major victory, at Antietam, was as much due to Robert Lee's mistakes as his own abilities.
* He was finally fired by Lincoln for his failures and insubordination. But he remained popular with the troops and much of the public. In 1864 he ran as a Democrat for president. Lincoln could quite easily have lost the election. Up until late, Lincoln himself believed he was likely to lose, and only a series of battle victories helped him get re elected.
* White racists and other Confederate apologists, as well those with a naive or poor understanding of the white supremacist nature of the Confederacy, like to endlessly obsess over a possible Union defeat. Many armchair generals also will go into excruciating detail about turning points of Civil War battles. It is as bad as being trapped in an elevator with a stamp collector or obsessed baseball fan who can cite statistics all day long.
* To put it simply enough to not bore people, to imagine a Confederate victory in 1864 is not easy. In 1863 it is somewhat easier at the turning points of Gettysburg and Vicksburg. (Even those armchair generals who imagine a victory at Gettysburg would bring US defeat are deluding themselves. See Notes for more.) But that time had passed. The Confederacy was fighting mostly holding actions in 1864, hoping to last long enough so that Union voters would vote out Lincoln.
* One does not have to imagine Confederate victories for Lincoln to lose the election, just no great Union victories. The Democratic Party platform called for immediately ending the war and talks with the Confederacy. But McClellan rejected the platform, wanting to continue the war and keep the US one nation. He was opposed to ending slavery. But except for that, the main difference between him and Lincoln was McClellan's belief he could run the war better.
* Should McClellan win, he faces the problem of his own party disagreeing with him, and Republicans only half agreeing with him too. He would continue the war, but remain very handicapped by divisions in Congress and public perception that he would give in to the treason of the Confederacy. The best McClellan could hope for is winning the Civil War, the Union reunited, but a longer war than under Lincoln since McClellan was more timid.
* The worst case scenario is not the white supremacist fantasy of a powerful Confederacy winning a clear victory. The worst case is likely an exhausted Union public forcing McClellan to allow the pitiful remnants of the Confederacy independence, while all territory held by the Union stays in the Union.
* This means first and foremost the entire Mississippi Valley will stay in the United States, along with the major port city of New Orleans and all the river cities of Memphis, Vicksburg, Natchez, and Baton Rouge. The eastern third of Louisiana stays Union, as does the west half of the state of Mississippi. All of Tennessee and the northern thirds of Alabama and Arkansas also stay Union. Much of these areas were made up of mostly Unionists anyway. Most southerners always supported the Union, not the Confederacy. (See Section Eleven.)
* In Virginia, much of the state remains Union. The northernmost part, the ports of Newport News and Norfolk, along with most of the peninsula leading to Richmond had been under Union control for most of the war. There were large parts of the Confederacy that were either under the control of southern Unionists or wished to be, such as south Mississippi, north Alabama, southwest Georgia, western North Carolina, and south Texas. McClellan may be publicly pressured, or may wish to, see these areas remain part of the US. That might be a condition for peace between the two sides. Florida was also sparsely populated then, only 140,000 people, nearly all on the border with Alabama and Georgia. It may be strategically useful for McClellan to order the southern half taken by Union troops, perhaps colonized by US civilians.
* A surviving Confederacy is going to be greatly reduced and split in two. In the western third, General Kirby Smith had already been ruling by martial law in Texas and the rump states of Arkansas and Louisiana. Except for El Paso, half of Texas was still largely under Native tribes' control, and likely will later come under United States control. Jefferson Davis thus rules over only half of Mississippi, two thirds of Alabama, and perhaps three quarters of North Carolina and Virginia. Only Georgia, Florida (maybe), and South Carolina remain almost all Confederate, with Atlanta and Georgia territory to the north and the port of Jacksonville under Union control. Davis ruled by martial law for much of the Civil War, and likely that continues as well.
* The Confederacy faces huge problems on top of losing much territory and being split. Its army was close to collapse. A quarter of all its military age males were killed in the war. Fully half of all southern white men dodged the draft, sometimes forming gangs to drive away Confederate officials. Two thirds of all Confederate soldiers deserted, often multiple times, encouraged by their wives, fiancees, sisters, and mothers. Women had turned increasingly against the Confederacy, rioting in cities, including female mobs publicly jeering Davis in Richmond itself.
* Not only that, its central work force was either on strike or had fled to freedom. Slave uprisings exploded during the Civil War. Slaves burned down Charleston, burned many boats in New Orleans, and even burned Jefferson Davis's home. Where there had been perhaps 100,000 successful slave escapes during more than two centuries before the war, in four years runaway slaves jumped to a half million. Over one of every eight slaves escaped, and most often these slaves were the most valuable slaves, young males. Everywhere the Union Army went huge throngs of slaves followed.
* In those southern areas that remain Union, slavery will be abolished. Despite McClellan's opposition, it is very unlikely he can reverse Emancipation. In Louisiana, Lincoln had ordered not just abolition but the vote for Blacks and free education. The Republican Party, plus distrust of McClellan by his own Democratic Party, makes it unlikely that could be reversed either. Former Confederate areas close to Union borders would continue to be a magnet for runaways.
* Much of the remaining slave workforce had gone on strike, quit working except to provide for themselves. With many males away, such resistance became far easier. It would take returning veterans to force them back to work, and many veterans would not return. In addition to the high death rate, most of the remaining Confederate Army likely has to stay in the field and is very occupied trying to regain control of areas run by Unionist bands, stopping runaway slaves, and guarding borders.
* The Confederacy will have to resort to the same tyranny it always had. It was never a democracy, always run by a tiny oligarchy. Mail, telegraph, books, magazines, newspapers, and even pamphlets were censored. Abolitionist writings were punished with death or exile. Political parties were banned, with usually only a single candidate on the ballot. Voters, often limited to large property owners, could only vote yes or no, and turnout was very low. The Confederate Congress usually met in secret and often imposed gag orders on issues. Cabinet posts were rotated among wealthy elites. There were over 4,000 political prisoners in the Confederacy, and likely those numbers would increase to regain control of their territory. There were also mass executions of dissidents at Nueces, Gainsville, and Kinston. Again, to regain control, there likely would be more executions.
* Once regaining control, the Confederate economy will still be at a huge disadvantage. The government ordered the stockpiling of cotton to offset Union blockades. With the blockade ended, that would flood the market and bring the price down. On top of that, Europeans had simply turned to cotton from India while the war was on, and there is not much reason to change back. The Union also holds many former Confederate ports, Norfolk, Newport News, Mobile, Jacksonville, and New Orleans.
* This means the Confederacy will rely upon, ironically, the United States for its cotton market. This had been true during the war, with much smuggling going on and all the corruption that entails. But the Confederate economy will take another hit in the 1870s, when cotton prices collapse worldwide. A collapsing economy could lead to a surplus of slaves, class conflict, and thus more slave uprisings and brutality to keep down those uprisings.
* It has long been an enormous act of denial to pretend the Civil War and Confederacy were not about slavery. Actually, Confederate officials explicitly said from the beginning in their Declaration of Causes they were fighting for slavery, and their constitution forbade states without slavery. For the US, once Emancipation was issued, the war became about slavery for the Union.
* Confederate apologists often claim the Confederacy would abolish slavery on its own. Would this be true under a surviving though greatly reduced Confederacy? Not unless they want to slit their own economic throats. Cotton price collapses might be the only thing to lead to abolishing slavery. A newly freed Black population would be forced into sharecropping and segregation upheld by violence. They would be easy scapegoats, and likely many flee the Confederacy.
* In fact, it is likely the Confederacy would begin the slave trade again immediately after the Civil War and go to war yet again to expand slavery. Confederate officials spoke openly of both. With so many slaves freed or revolting, the owners will need replacements. And the internal slave trade, from eastern US states to further west, had become increasingly important to the southern economy before the war.
* The most likely target for a Confederate war is Spain. With a weakening empire, the Spanish-American War might have come 20 or 30 years earlier and been a Spanish-Confederate War. Spain lost the Spanish-American War in only a few months. Though the Confederacy is far weaker militarily and economically than the US, Spain likely would still lose. That is, unless the United States steps in, hostile and seeking revenge for the memory of so many deaths in the Civil War. Potentially this could lead to a second US Civil War, one the Confederacy would surely lose and may even be reabsorbed back into the US.
* What about the US in the aftermath of the Civil War, under McClellan? How would he handle Reconstruction? McClellan truly hated abolitionists and had racist opinions of both Blacks and Mexicans as far back as the US-Mexico War. He could not by himself reverse Emancipation, not even with the help of Democrats in Congress and a war weary US public. The Thirteenth Amendment formally abolishing slavery was passed under Lincoln. But as the new president he could stop any attempt at the other Reconstruction Amendments, the Fourteenth and Fifteenth, or at least delay it until another president is elected, much like Johnson had. This means Black civil rights would be much less protected.
* Would McClellan have been as incompetent as Andrew Johnson? Would his racism lead him to ignore or even encourage white supremacist terrorists, as Johnson did? Likely the KKK and other terrorists never arise at all, or do so and are quickly crushed. In the Confederacy they would not be needed, since slavery continues and the Confederate authorities keep the Black population more oppressed than ever.
* In the border states and former Confederate territory now part of the Union, the Klan likely either does not arise or does so only to end quickly. Much of that territory had been pro-Union from the start. The Klan was made up overwhelmingly of Confederate veterans. Those from the pro-Union areas are the least likely to become terrorists. Those who were truly pro-Confederacy are less likely to take up terrorism because they may stay within the remains of the Confederacy.
* Other terrorists arose during Reconstruction, the Red Shirts in Mississippi and the White League in Louisiana. Unlike the Klan, they did not hide their identities. They did not need to at this point since the Klan had been so successful in its terrorism, and being terrorists openly sent the message of their impunity.
* Would Congress and Republicans fight as long and hard with McClellan as Johnson did? A Reconstruction Congress likely would be just as opposed to letting former Confederates take over the south under Union control, and would defend just as strongly Black civil rights. But McClellan would be different in several important ways.
* One, McClellan was a far more efficient administrator than Johnson. He also was not a drunk as Johnson was. McClellan likely would administer the former Confederate areas more effectively, though he would disagree strongly with Radical Republican aims. McClellan also was the product of a Whig Party background, snobbish and elitist, where Johnson grew up poor and detested the wealthy. McClellan likely tries to force labor contracts upon former slaves, much as Johnson did.
* Likely the US public becomes fed up with McClellan by 1868. Grant is again the most likely successor. There is little reason to think Grant would act any differently under these scenarios than he did in actual history. Would there be a stolen election in 1876? Likely no. The Democrats are far less numerous without former Confederate states. Whether Grant remains president (he had actually run again in 1880) or Rutherford Hayes wins, likely neither need the infamous Compromise of 1876. The Compromise included an agreement to no longer enforce Black civil rights and withdraw US troops from the south. There is no way a former Union general like McClellan, nor Grant, would want US troops removed from Confederate borders.
* If the Confederacy was not reabsorbed by the US during a Spanish-Confederate War, we may see another war between the US and the Confederacy around 1914-18. Most authors writing alternate history think the Confederacy would ally itself with Imperial Germany and the Central Powers. World War I may be fought in North America as well as Europe.
* This is yet one more possible reabsorbing of the Confederacy. If that does not happen, the Confederacy could develop its own fascist movement in the 1920s and 30s. It may become fascist itself and ally with the Axis. The most disturbing possibility is that Nazi anti Antisemitism could influence Confederate fascists to seek a Final Solution to their “negro problem.” Especially if slavery had ended, Blacks may be seen as surplus, a burden and a threat to be solved with deportation, sterilization, and finally death camps.
* By that point, the new A-bomb may be part of the equation. The Confederacy, being far less industrial thanks to slavery, would not be able to develop the bomb in time. The US develops it first, and perhaps even tests it in New Mexico. The Confederacy could finally die an atomic death. What city would be the most likely target? Birmingham might make for an ironic choice, given its history during the civil rights era.
* It is extremely unlikely the Confederacy could survive to the present and avoid losing every war it fights. For white supremacists and those in denial of the true nature of that thankfully dead attempt at a nation, their Confederate dreams are purely unrealistic fantasies.
* McClellan's win could have split the nation for anywhere from two to eight decades. He would have set Black civil rights almost as far back as Johnson and put in motion several possible future wars. Ironically the Confederacy suffers far more from McClellan enabling their independence, even possibly a future atomic destruction.