Cheney's Many Wars
* On May 10, 2005, a man named Vladimir Arutyunian tried to assassinate GW Bush. Bush was on a state visit to the Georgian capital when Arutyunian tossed a live grenade wrapped in cloth. The cloth prevented the striker on the grenade from releasing. The grenade landed about 60 feet from where Bush was speaking, near the Georgian president and First Lady Laura Bush. Grenade fragments are deadliest within 50 feet, but can travel up to 600 feet.
* A fatal or incapacitating assassination would make Dick Cheney the President. Possibly Cheney may choose as his vice presidential successor the Speaker of the House, Tom Delay. Delay was only a few months away from the scandal that removed him from office, indictment in September for violating election laws and money laundering that would lead to his resignation in June 2006 and conviction in 2010, later overturned.
* It would be a very chaotic three years remaining in Cheney's time as president. Only four months later, in September 2005 Cheney underwent a multiple bypass for his heart. In 2010 he suffered a mild heart attack and was given a heart valve for congestive heart failure. Keep in mind that the presidency is an enormously stressful job. By some estimates a president ages five years for every year as president.
* Cheney's presidency would be a nightmare for any but the most hardened of neo conservatives. He was and remains an enormously polarizing figure, despised by many in his own party, especially libertarian minded conservatives, almost as much as those on the political left and center. 2005 also marked the point at which support for the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars dropped sharply and the majority of Americans opposed both wars for the first time.
* In 2006, Republicans lost badly in the midterm elections. Such losses would be greater under Cheney. He is known both for his uncompromising nature and for his belief in a conspiracy between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, which never happened. More than a few observers maintained Cheney was the true force behind Bush's presidency. It is true that he was the most powerful vice president the US has ever had, not just gathering intelligence but “shaping” (many would say falsifying) it as an instrument to guide policy.
* But it is also true that Bush and Cheney often disagreed. Cheney did not want Donald Rumsfeld, the equally unpopular Secretary of Defense, removed from office. Cheney also devoted an enormous amount of time to pushing for a pardon for Scooter Libby, a staff member convicted of perjury and obstructing the investigation of a leak exposing the identity of a CIA agent. Many observers thought Libby's obstruction was to hide the fact that the one who exposed the CIA agent's identity may have been adviser Karl Rove or even Bush himself.
* Most importantly, Cheney disagreed strongly with Bush over Iran. Cheney, along with many other advocates for Israel and fellow neo conservatives pushed for bombing Iran during 2008, but Bush decided against it. A CIA intelligence estimate that Iran was unlikely to develop the atomic bomb soon (as indeed they have not for the six years since then) strengthened the case of those opposed to bombing Iran. But with Cheney as president, it is quite likely he could “shape” intelligence on the subject.
* The consequences of bombing Iran, as many pointed out at the time, would be disastrous. Iran could easily retaliate by blocking the Straits of Hormuz. Even sinking a single ship could cut off the narrow straits. Kuwaiti, Qatari, and Emirates oil would be unable to reach western countries, as would much Saudi oil. Starting in 2007, the US was already in the Great Recession. Oil potentially reaching $10 or even $20 a gallon would worsen the Recession far more.
* Iran's government was also allies with terrorists inside Iraq, in Lebanon, and elsewhere. The government could encourage them to strike at US troops in Iraq, embassies, and other American targets worldwide, as well as Israel. If Israel strikes Iran, the potential for a war across the entire Middle East was there.
* Some neoconservatives called for not just bombing but the invasion of Iran, and a campaign of terrorism could lead to just such a war. Iran is five times the size of Iraq, with a population three times greater. Iran was not weakened by a previous war and long blockade, as Iraq had been. Any invasion would take at least two or three times as many troops as Iraq or Afghanistan.
* The worst case scenarios thus involve Cheney as president with a weak heart and a vice president who is under indictment for money laundering, and the US fighting three wars plus worldwide terrorism, plus an even greater recession, all at the same time.
* The best case scenarios might actually involve Cheney mercifully passing away, but not before appointing a more moderate or at least pragmatic vice president once Delay is indicted. Another possibility is that should Cheney try to alter intelligence, he may be impeached. If a more pragmatic vice president were in office, Cheney's deep unpopularity may make it far easier to impeach him after the 2006 elections return a more Democratic Congress.
* Of course, Cheney has never been an unintelligent man. He may appoint someone equally as neo conservative and unpopular as his vice president, like Donald Rumsfeld. Cheney is also a survivor and may survive the presidency, his health problems, and impeachment.
* But he would not be foolish enough to run as president in 2008. Any Republican would likely go down to an even greater defeat than John McCain did. In that case, Obama has an even worse situation to deal with, ending three wars, not two, and an even worse economy. But worse problems likely mean a more Democratic Congress, more freedom to act, and a greater chance of success.