Similarities of WWI with the Oil Wars of 2014
Today, 100 years after the First World War for oil in 1914, we see the oil and natural gas wars in Syria and Iraq, in Ukraine and in Libya, and we can assume that nothing has changed. The wars in Libya, Ukraine, Iraq and Syria, are the first flames of the Third World War for oil, and of course everybody hopes that these first flames will not become a big fire like it happened in the previous World Wars for oil. However since the current wars take place in three continents, i.e. Ukraine in Europe, Iraq and Syria in Asia, and Libya in Africa, we can assume that we are already in a mini World War for oil.
The situation in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea is very similar to the situation in these regions in 1914. The difference is that the Americans have replaced the English, and the Chinese have replaced the Germans. In WW1 it was the British Navy that was dominating the seas, and it was Germany that was trying to exploit its geographical advantage in order to avoid the British Navy and connect to the oil rich region through the Ottoman Empire and the Baghdad Railway, since Germany was much closer than England to the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea (black line).
Today, instead of Germany, it is China that is trying to exploit its geographical advantage in order to circumvent the American Navy and connect to the Persian Gulf, except that due to technological advancements the Chinese are not using railways but oil and natural gas pipelines.
The Chinese have already connected to the Caspian Sea by a pipeline network that connects China to the rich in oil Kazakhstan and the rich in natural gas Turkmenistan (red lines), and they are trying to construct a pipeline network that will connect China to Iran and the Persian Gulf. The war in Afghanistan is definitely relevant to the Chinese effort to connect to Iran and the Persian Gulf, since Afghanistan is very poor in oil and natural gas. What makes Afghanistan important is its position between Iran and China (see my essays "The 21st Century War for Iran"s Oil" and "Why the U.S.A.
Invaded Afghanistan" for more information on the connection between China and Iran).
The other similarity between the First World War for oil in 1914 and the 2014 oil wars is the Baghdad Railway and the Qatar-Turkey Pipeline. In 1914 Germany wanted to construct the Baghdad Railway in order to connect to the Persian Gulf and obtain oil, but Greece and Serbia were blocking her. Or to be more accurate nobody was blocking her, since the European territories of the Ottoman Empire bordered Austro-Hungary, but with the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913, the English and the Russians helped Greece and Serbia to absorb the European territories of the Ottoman Empire in order to block the Baghdad Railway that would connect Germany to the Ottoman Empire and the Persian Gulf (black line).
In 2014, actually earlier since the war in Syria started in 2011, Qatar and Turkey wanted to construct a Sunni natural gas pipeline that would transport Qatari natural gas to Europe through Turkey (red line), but the Shiite Iraq and Syria were blocking this pipeline, and as a result the wars in Iraq and Syria broke out. The wars in Iraq and Syria also broke out to prevent the Shiite pipeline (green line), which would transport Iranian oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria (see my essay "The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia).
We therefore see that everything is almost the same. Serbia and Greece were blocking the Baghdad Railway in 1914, and Austro-Hungary declared war on Serbia in 1914, while in 2011 the Shiite Iraq and Syria were blocking the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and were promoting the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, and the wars in Syria and Iraq broke out. Therefore the wars that broke out in Syria and Iraq in 2011, have a lot of resemblance to the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913.
The story is the same for Russia too. Russia has always been invading and controlling the countries around the Caspian Sea. This region was under Russian occupation during the Russian Empire era i.e. during the tsarist Russia, and nothing changed during the Communist era.
Former Soviet Union Map
The Russian Communists kept the Caspian countries under Russian control until the fall of the Soviet Union, as you can see on the above map of the former Soviet Union. Actually the Caspian Region i.e.
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is comprised of 90%
Muslim populations, which are much more similar to the Turks rather than the Russians who are Christians.
However Russia has always been the strongest country, she has been on the winning side in both World Wars, and therefore the oil rich Caspian region has always been under her control. The Communists, exactly like the tsarists, did not grant these countries independence because of the oil riches of these countries, which were very important for Russia"s energy security.
At the following Wikipedia link you can read how Russian Communists invaded Azerbaijan in 1920.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_invasion_of_Azerbaijan
At the following Wikipedia link you can read how Russian Communists invaded Georgia in 1921.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_invasion_of_Georgia
In section "Kazakhstan under Soviet Rule" of the following Wikipedia link, you can read the following:
“During the 1930s, many renowned Kazakh writers, thinkers, poets, politicians and historians were killed on Stalin's orders, both as part of the repression and as a methodical pattern of suppressing Kazakh identity and culture”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan#Kazakhstan_under_Soviet_rule
At the following Economist"s article about Central Asia titled "Stalin"s Harvest", you can read the following:
“After the October revolution of 1917, new autonomous republics were created. In 1924 Stalin divided the region into different Soviet republics. The borders were drawn up rather arbitrarily without following strict ethnic lines or even the guidelines of geography.
The main aim was to counter the growing popularity of pan-Turkism in the region, and to avoid potential friction. Hence, the fertile Fergana Valley (formerly ruled by the Khanate of Kokand) was divided between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Some of these borders were redrawn several times until 1936. After 1991, this led to lively demarcation disputes among the newly independent countries”.
http://www.economist.com/node/16377083
In the First World War for oil, the Russian tsar was trying to prevent the Germans from approaching Baku. In the Second World War for oil, the Russian Communists were again trying to prevent Hitler from getting the Baku oil. Note that the very rich oil reserves of Kazakhstan were discovered much later than the ones in Baku.
Today, in the Third World War for oil, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin is trying to keep a firm hand on the Caspian countries, in order for Russia to have monopolistic power in the European natural gas markets (see my essay "The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia"). Actually the war between Russia and Georgia and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan were Russia"s revenge for the cooperation of Azerbaijan and Georgia with the Americans on the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. To retaliate, the Americans supported the Chechens, and the Russian Chechen war broke out (see my essay
"The Three Wars for the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline".
As you can read in the second half of following article of the Guardian, Vladimir Putin threatened the Kazakhstan sovereignty after the Kazakh President and dictator, Nursultan Nazabayev, threatened to quite the Eurasian Economic Union.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/kazakhstan-russian-neighbour-putin-chilly-nationalist-rhetoric
Here there is one more article on Putin"s pressure on Kazakhstan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/69771
In the First World War for oil in 1914, Russia was on the side of the country that had the advantage in the seas i.e. Great Britain. In the Second World War for oil in 1939, the Russians were initially on the German side, that is on the side of the country that had the geographical advantage, with the famous Nazi-Communist alliance which came into effect with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939, according to which the Nazis and the Communists were splitting Eastern Europe into zones of influence. For the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact see the following Wikipedia link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact
For the Nazi-Communist alliance you can also read the following link of Encyclopaedia Britannica. In the third paragraph you can read the following:
“To this public pact of nonaggression was appended a secret protocol, also reached on August 23, 1939, which divided the whole of eastern Europe into German and Soviet spheres of influence”.
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/230972/German-Soviet-Nonaggression-Pact
In the first paragraph of the same Britannica link, you can also read the following:
“The Western democracies" hesitance in opposing Adolf Hitler, along with Stalin"s own inexplicable personal preference for the Nazis, also played a part in Stalin"s final choice”.
Therefore one should not be misled to think that the Russian Tsars or the Russian Communists were better than the Americans or the British. They were simply located next to the richest region in oil and natural gas reserves in the world. And Russia has many more oil and natural gas reserves than the Caspian ones. Russia is the richest country in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and one of the richest countries in the world in terms of oil reserves. Please note that the countries with the richest reserves are not necessarily the ones with the largest production, since production also depends on technology and other factors.
Today, in what I call the beginning of the Third World War for oil, Russia is closely working with China, that is with the country that has the geographical advantage, and not with U.S.A. which is the country that dominates the seas.