Aurelio Peccei - The Club of Rome
There is no doubt that one of the early and most influential persons to alert the world to the environmental dangers ahead was Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome.
Aurelio Peccei was an Italian industrialist, former vice-president of Fiat Motors who quit the company in the 1960's to devote full time to what he called "the world problematique". In the process he founded the Club of Rome, an international group of distinguished business- men, statesmen and scientists. One of their early projects was to commission Professor Dr. Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to use their sys- tems dynamic model to "study the long term causes and consequences of growth in population, industrial capital, food production, resource consumption and pollution." 5) This resulted in the publication of Limits to Growth 6) in 1972 by principal authors Dennis and Donella Meadows. They concluded that:
"if present growth trends in population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached some time within the next 100 years."
This, they hasten to add, is not a forecast, but what would happen if the present trends continued. In spite of the caveat, the report caused widespread and intense criticism. This was Cassandra in spades!
Twenty years later the same principal authors pub- lished Beyond the Limits 7) to review progress and note any significant changes in trends. Here is what they said.
"In 1971 we concluded that the physical limits to human use of materials and energy were somewhere decades ahead. In 1991 when we looked again at the data, the computer model and our own experience of the world, we realized that in spite of the world's improved technology, the greater awareness, the environment policies, many resource and pollution flows had grown beyond their sustainable limits."
And they continue:
"The future, to be viable at all, must be one of drawing back, easing down, healing."
Again, Cassandra had declared and was not believed!
Twelve years after that, again the same authors published an update Limits to Growth - the 30 Year Update. 8) In spite of all the warnings in Beyond the Limits the authors cannot show any improvement in the world's ecological footprint. As they say:
"The past decade has produced much data that supports our suggestion in BTL 7) that the world is in overshoot mode. It now appears that the global per capita grain production peaked in the mid-1980's."
There is a similar story for fish in the sea and greenhouse gas emissions. They see a lack of public and political will to effect the necessary changes. In response to the ques- tion they pose "What will happen?" they respond:
"The global challenge can be simply stated. To reach sustainability, humanity must increase the consumption levels of the world's poor while at the same time reducing humanity's total ecological foot print."
No small task. Both population and economic growth will have to be dealt with to achieve any degree of sustainability.
Lester Brown.
Lester Brown founded the Worldwatch Institute in Washington in 1974. It was devoted to research on the future of the world in areas such as population, environ- ment, energy, food supply that were critical to the future of the world. The first of State of the World 9) annual series of publications was in 1984 and was made possible by the financial support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. It is interesting to see what topics the first report covered looking back some 25 years. Here are some chapter titles:
Stabilizing Population
Reducing Dependence on Oil
Protecting Forests
Developing Renewable Energy
Reconsidering the Automobile’s Future
Securing Food Supplies
These topics are not only still relevant but have taken on a greater sense of urgency. Although a