computer market, lost position in the late 1970s to several smaller companies that were first
to develop powerful minicomputers to replace the larger mainframe computers that were
the cornerstone of IBM's business.
All organizations must make assumptions about the future in technology and its impact
on their
activities. The
of technology cannot be ignored. For example, the
Japanese promote the use of electronic circuits and have used them almost exclusively in
their controls. However, U.S .-based organizations have been slower to change and many
have continued to use electromechanical controls in their products.
Everyone enjoys thinking about the future and the kinds of technology that will evolve.
Let's fast-forward a few years
see
opportuniLes technology will open up for marketers:
• How about ads that are targeted not [0 a demographic or psychographic group, but
to you specifically- ads that know
you need and what you want?
• How about a house of smart appliances
Internet connections-refrigerators
that tell you when you 're running out of milk and dryers that know to call the repair-
man when they break?
• How about a cell phone that knows where you are and can direct you to a great
new Korean restaurant, or a Palm
device that delivers streaming video
right to your hand?
• How about a TV that airs a
ad you can order from at the click of a button,
with total integration between a channel and its Web site?
INTEGRATED MARKETING
•
NOT IN LOVE WITH ONLINE-IMAGINE!
There are people who are Net-free, and they plan to stay that
The results seem to contradict predictions that Internet growth
way. This seems to be especially true with many of the rich
will continue to boom in coming years. "It may take another
and famous. Mark McCormack, agent to Tiger Woods and ten-
generation," says Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Project,
nis phenoms Venus and Serena Williams, surrounds himself
"before the Net becomes as ubiquitous and essential as the
with tech-savvy folks, but has never used a computer him-
telephone and television are today."
self. Actress Daryl Hannah has a computer, but hasn ' t turned
To study the 94 million Americans who are not online,
it on in three years. Author Harlan Ellison, who churns out
interviewers questioned 1,158 non-Internet and.noncomputer
novels and short stories by typing with two fingers on a man-
users in depth. Findings included the following:
ual typewriter, is simply turned off by the Internet. "It's a mas-
• 32%, or 31 million Americans, said they "definitely will
sive waste of time," he says. "Does Skippy peanut butter really
not" go online.
need a Web site?"
• 25% say they "probably will not" venture online.
.Lest you think these are the attitudes of the slightly
• 29% "probably will" get Internet access.
demented, a report conducted by Pew Internet and American
• 12% say they "definitely will" get Internet access.
Life Project indicate that half of U.S. adults are not
and the majority of those non-users are unlikely to hit the Net
Those surveyed by Pew said their primary reasons for shun-
any time soon:
ning the Internet are fear and lack of interest. More than half
of those not online believe that the Internet is a dangerous thing
• 57% have little or no interest in getting online.
and that they are not missing anything by staying away.
• More than one in ten adults who are not online tried the
Net before disconnection.
Sources: Karen Thomas, "Not Everyone's E-Namored With the
• More than 14% of Americans have computers but aren ' t · Net," USA Today, September 25, 2000, p. 3D; Dana Blankenhorn, online.
"Hype Blasters," Advert,ising Age , June 9, 2000, pp. 58-62.
FACTORS THAT AFFECT PLANNING
11 5
• How about underwear that knows your glucose level is rising and automatically injects
you with insulin or clothing that senses a heart attack coming and tells you to take
a pill?
All these miracles are possible in the amazing world of tomorrow. These are not technologies
in a lab , but working prototypes, many just abOut to hit the market. The potential for mar-
keters in just five years makes today 's Web offerings
like a
act. While these
services will rely on the Internet to communicate between newfangled gadgets and more
intelligent servers, most of the services won't be based on HTML, for practical reasons.
For example, you can't effectively run a Web browser on a cell phone screen, and you don't
want one inside your shirt.
The pitfalls for marketers are also obvious.
today's Web is open, each of these
new technologies has a potential gatekeeper-cell phone operators, cable companies, appli-
ance makers, and, as noted in the Integrated Marketing box, consumers who are not enthralled
with the computer.
Social Trends
The social environment includes all factors and trends related to groups of people, including their number, characteristics, behavior, and growth projections. Since consumer mar-
kets have specific needs and problems, changes in the social environment can affect markets
differently. Trends in the social environment might increase the size of some markets, decrease
the size of others, or even help to create new markets. We discuss here two important com-
ponents of the social environment: the demographic environment and the cultural environment.
Demographic Changes
Whereas beliefs, values, and customs describe the characteristics of the culture and sub-
culture, demographics describe the observable characteristics of individuals living in the culture. Demographics include our physical traits, such as gender, race, age, and height;
our economic traits, such as income, savings, and net worth; our occupation-related traits,
including education; our location-related traits ; and our family-related traits, such as mar-
ital status and number and age of children. Demographic trait compositions are constantly
changing, and no American, Japanese, or Brazilian is "typical" anymore. There is no average family, no ordinary worker, no everyday
and no traditional middle class.
Still, marketing managers must understand consumers intimately. Often, the best they
can do is take a snapshot and try to understand what is happening in our culture in the early
years of this
As we see next, some trends are old; others are new. For instance, the
aging of the population has been going on for several decades, but births and birth rates in
recent years have been much higher than expected. Immigration is also greater than pre-
dicted, and so is the backlash against it. Interstate migration to the south and west are old
trends. What is new is heavier movement from the Northeast than from the mid-West and
rapid growth in the mountain states. Next, we examine nine demographic changes and how
they affect marketmg.
1. Households are
more slowly and
older. About half of all house-
holds are aged 45 and older and growing at an annual rate of 1% compared with
nearly 2% in the 1980s. Marketing communicators must plan for a greater num-
ber of middle-aged households, consumers who are experienced and have a bet-
ter understanding of price
value. These consumers should have an interest in
high-quality household goods and in-home health care.
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