In running betting is a fast growing area of the betting industry. Traditionally once an event has started all bets are closed and we await the outcome of the event and the bookmakers settle up accordingly. In running betting allows for betting to take place once the event has started. The betting continues until near the end of the event or the actual end of the event.
Rules for each event can vary between bookmakers and you need to be clear of what the exact terms of settlement. The arbs that you make here are going to be much fewer in number but the percentage profit will be superior to our usual ‘run of the mill’ arbs as described in previous chapters.
In a normal betting situation the bookmaker has time to prepare their prices by doing proper research on the event. Well mostly they do proper research, some are just sheep! In-running arbs are the result of knee-jerk reactions from bookmakers as events unfold. They also have, at all times, one eye on making sure that their overall position is not exposed. They therefore like to keep their books balanced at all times.
Finding arbs for in running events is different from what we have learnt so far in terms of preparation and organisation. You will be reacting to events that happen during the match and making instant decisions as arbs appear. The arbs will last for maybe only a few seconds and so it is important that the correct approach is taken to this particular arb making skill.
We will highlight the following sports and discuss in detail the likely aspects involved in arb hunting while the event is in-running. As before these principals can be applied across all sports. By discussing these sports the reader will become aware of the potential for in-running arbs for all sports.
One of the main events for worldwide in-running arbs is currently soccer. But there are others like Formula 1, tennis and golf. There are a large number of sporting events where in-running betting takes place. One of these is horse racing which is extensively covered but is omitted here due to it no being a great sport for arbing.
Soccer
We will follow an example based on soccer and highlight the areas during a game where arbs may appear. It is clear from experience that odds set for in-running arbs can vary because of the unpredictability of events as they unfold.
Firstly we need to recognise that as events during a soccer match change there is an odds compiler changing the odds for the bookmaker. He, or she, needs to make instant decisions reacting to what is unfolding in the match. Their opinion is affected by the pressure cooker atmosphere that this type of event can generate.
You need to at all times take into account the remaining time left before the end of the match. The later the match has progressed the greatly different the chances are of an event happening. Clearly the further we are into a match where the teams are tied the more likelihood of a draw. Therefore the odds will continually change, especially in Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
the second half as we near the end of the game. This has the effect of the odds needing to be constantly adjusted.
The winner of the match is the clear choice for in-running arbs in soccer but there are other aspects of this market that need discussing.
The overall book is about 108% for soccer match result betting so we need to overcome this relatively high percentage. Also you need to be aware that if any significant event occurs during the game then the betting will be suspended.
When the betting is back in play this is when you are most likely to spot an arb opportunity. The odds will have been re-assessed by all the firms and some may be out of line with their prices. You need to be quick though as this will not last long in the in-running market.
Let us take for example the total number of corners during a game. This is usually priced as less than 8, exactly 8, or more than 8. This is fine when the match has kicked off as the bookmakers will by and large agree on the odds of this happening.
But as the match is played the closer we get to a total of 8 corners the greater the odds will reduce.
Clearly if we have had 6 corners and the match is ten minutes old the odds or more than 8 corners will be significantly reduced. Whereas if there is only 15 minutes of the match remaining we would expect that more than 8 corners is now going to be long odds. This is where opinion comes into play. Who is to say precisely at what point we change the odds to match the situation? Bookmakers will find this difficult to agree on.
What if a player gets sent off early? This will affect a team’s chances. Also this will mean that the game will be more open and there will be more attacking play, usually from the team with 11 men. This will likely result in more corners. One event, the sending off can affect another bet, total number of corners.
We shouldn’t concern ourselves how it will affect the match. Only to know it does and as such arbs will appear in-running. Volatility and unpredictability is the key to successful arbs trading in in-running sports.
Be aware of the settlement rules for all bookmakers for in-running arbs in soccer. The total corners market and match result betting can typically be closed after 80 minutes.
For example the bookmakers stop all betting by writing ‘SUSPENDED’ across the screen after 80 minutes and then later removing the bet from the screen before the match has finished.
As with all betting situations before the match starts have the latest odds tabulated with each bookmaker’s offering. So let us assume during a match an arb appears, which bookmaker is out of line with their prices? Actually this can be very difficult to say. If there are a number offering the same price then we can spot the ‘wrong’ price.
However often what happens all the bookmakers change their prices and there are two or three clear arbs. It can be a little confusing trying to decide which side of the bet to Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
complete first as you don’t want the other half of the arb to have its price change midstream and you left out in the cold with only half the arb fulfilled. Speed, as always is the key thing.
Once you have decided what to do place your bets as quickly as possible. The frenzied activity of in-running arbs means that the arbs will last for seconds not minutes. The bookmakers will tend to quickly redress any imbalance in their comparative prices.
The in-running market can be more lucrative for arbs in percentage terms but we are relying on unusual events happening. Typically we are looking for the unusual event to happen in favour of the underdog. This upsets the apple cart and gets the bookmakers scratching their heads trying to decide how to alter the odds.
A player getting sent off, a goal against the run of play in the second half or a couple of goals for the underdog in the first half will change the complexion of the match drastically and change their odds.
If team ‘A’ is favourite to win and is priced at evens, then with a draw at 6/4 team B
may be 9/2. If team A get a player sent off early and/or team B take a commanding lead then the compiler needs to act. This may well result in the odds being reversed, so that team B are now favourite to win. The odds on the draw will stay about the same.
In these situations not all compilers will act with herd like instincts. They need to make a pro-active decision. The will shorten the odds on team B but the speed they do this and to what degree is what makes in-running arbs so exciting.
They do have one get-out clause. Whenever a significant event takes place in the game, eg. a goal the betting is suspended and the market redressed. This gives the odds compiler time to alter the odds before un-suspending the market.
Vying the betting exchanges against the traditional bookmakers in an in-running market is probably one of your most effective strategies. It has been noted that there are certain bookmakers who will wait for the betting exchanges to return before posting their own ‘new’ odds. In effect checking where the money is going.
For in-running betting bookmakers will have a match strategy planned in advance. If no unusual events occur then they will alter the odds accordingly as the match goes on. They may expect team A to lead at half-time and would clearly shorten their odds if this as expected happened. The match result odds would continue to shorten for the winning side at an exponential rate as we got closer to the end of the match.
There are currently only a limited number of bookmakers which will offer in-running odds even for a popular sport like soccer although the numbers are increasing.
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
Motor racing – Formula 1
One of the most unpredictable in-running events is the Formula 1 Grand Prix. The unpredictability of the team’s race strategy can cause so much puzzlement as to what is going on that it is very difficult to assess exactly what odds should be on offer.
The first anomaly with Motor racing is that the competitor can be winning one second and be out of the race the next, either through a crash or mechanical failure.
Mechanical failure is much more likely.
This doesn’t really happen in other sports where one all too common incident can cause such a change in a competitors chances. The driver goes from hero to zero in a split second. At which point the chances of all the other drivers are boosted, their odds need to be reassessed accordingly.
Usually one of the top performing drivers is eliminated within the first 5 laps of a race. Often this is as a result of a crash at the first corner!
Secondly is the race strategy. Cars have to stop to take on fuel. The rules dictate it.
But whether they are on one fuel stop, two fuel stops or even three is unknown to anyone apart from the driver and team. Race strategy is critical to a driver’s race and their chances of winning.
Thirdly there are the team strategies. Each team runs two cars. In nearly all competitive team there is one driver who has priority over the other in all aspects of testing, technical support and race strategy.
The lesser team members will deliberately obstruct other rivals cars to gain an advantage for their team members. This is done subtely by running with lighter fuel loads, so gaining better performance and ‘blocking’ the rivals’ car while their team member races away to gain an advantage. In a sport where fractions of a second are important this can be very damaging.
There is also the unwritten and illegal practice of letting a team member pass you to gain a points advantage in the race championship. This is against the rules but still appears to be used.
A recent example was the 2006 Turkish grand prix. With Massa the Ferrari driver leading the race and his team mate Schumacher third the Renault driver Alonso was second. Massa had a comfortable lead over both second and third who were both vying to win the overall championship title.
It appeared that if Schumacher had got past Alonso, his main rival for the Championship, Massa would slow down and let Schumacher his team mate pass him to get first place.
How do we know this? Well we don’t, but with Schumacher in third place and only 10 laps to go the betting exchanges were quoting seriously strange odds. Schumacher in third was around 4/1. Second place Alonso had drifted to 15/1 and Massa, the race Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
leader was odds on to win. Everyone was assuming this was going to happen, all be it there was no evidence of potential wrongdoing.
But with Massa having an 8 or 9 second lead there is no way Schumacher would have caught him and overtaken him before the end of the race, even if he passed Alonso, the Championship leader. However the odds reflected the fact that if he had overtaken Alonso in second everyone expected him to then go on to take first place. How else can you explain the third place driver near the end of a race having far superior odds to that of the second place driver?
OK, its speculation, but the point is the logical odds would have been completely different. There were many arbs to be had between the varying prices on the exchanges and from the bookmakers.
The conclusion, Formula 1 in-running is one of the most unpredictable places for setting odds. Difference in odds opinion lead to arbs!
Golf
Golf is another sport worth considering for in-running arbs. Typically we will get an in-running book on televised tournaments with a high profile. Although these days virtually every tournament is televised on one channel or another.
Basically the same principles apply here where two players are matched against each other in a match. The in-running bets on this sport are less volatile and where as in-running arbs do appear, don’t spend all day following a golf match. It is better to dip in and out. We are only really going to find in-running arbs if the match is close and we are near the end of the round or the tournament.
Most matches go to form and there tends to be virtually no variable in playing conditions to affect the result. Again, don’t spend all day glued to the TV and Internet in the hope of an arb. Pick the later part of the 18 holes for the most volatility as the match reaches its climax.
Tennis
No need to add very much to the discussion for tennis. We are only interested in the match winner here. There are so many tournaments that in-running matches appear everyday on our screens. The key things to remember is that the further we are into the match the more volatility can occur.
The unique thing for tennis is the break of serve. This can be a very significant event especially in the men’s game. This may well cause the betting to be suspended and odds re-assessed, certainly if it happens in the final set. It goes without saying that a tie-break situation will be highly significant and the betting is likely to be suspended by bookmakers while this is fought.
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
Tennis is a fast changing game that has a huge amount of opportunity for surprises and therefore variations in odds. I suggest you take time to familiarise yourself by watching a few matches, ideally close ones and viewing the swings in odds as the match progresses.
Here is an example of a tennis match which produced some great in-running arb options. As mentioned before with tennis being a global sport we can assume that bookmakers from all over the world will price up matches.
However in this case the in-running odds were restricted to four bookmakers. The match was between Murray the Scot and Berdych the Czech player.
We’ve reached the third set and the odds compilers do not know which way to play this. Three have Berdych favourite with a best price of 11/10 and one has Murray as favourite but the best price on him is 5/4. So effectively the two prices are both odds against. As you can see the arb is a 7% profit.
So does it end there? Of course not! We have only just started the third and final set.
Quickly more confusion reigns and Murray’s best price goes out to 13/8. Great, the arb is now 14% profit.
Then we go to 7/4 on Murray. All the time the total profit on the arb is increasing.
Here is the same thing displayed in decimal odds.
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
A change in fortune as the odds reduce. Still a nice arb on offer and there are two bookmakers to choose from for Murray’s price of 6/5.
Again, here it is in decimal odds a few moments later.
A few minutes later and we are deep into the third set. Who knows who will win, the odds compilers are certainly confused look at the offering now.
Moments later these latest odds are posted for all to see.
It seems that confusion reigns as the odds compilers fight to control their market share and post the correct odds. Look at the best price percentage. Anything under 100% is an arb. We are at 80%!
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
We are back to the 20% plus profit.
Finally sanity is restored and it is the last few points of the match and Murray looks odds on to win. The remaining odds compilers run the contest out with a balanced book of 100%.
The ups and downs of the compilers odds was a god send for the arb maker, with huge gains to be made for a period of 15 to 20 minutes. The volatitlity of the odds in an in-running contest that is close is plain for all to see.
Cricket
Cricket is a great opportunity for in-running arbs. Here we are looking at betting on the match result or the total number of runs. Again we are interested in both the domestic game and internationals.
Match result
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
The match result is the main betting opportunity for in-running cricket arbs. The main thing to influence a compiler’s opinion will be the fall of wickets. A quick fall of wickets will result in a rapid change in the odds. Contrast this with a strong opening or middle order batting display, with a series of boundaries and the compiler’s opinion will sway one way then the other.
The one variable in cricket that is unknown until the first ball is bowled is the state of the wicket. It can be the major factor in the outcome of the result. The compiler has to sit there watching and judging the state of the pitch and make a decision on how it is playing. He must alter his odds accordingly. Couple this with the run rate and differences of opinion quickly arise. Clearly the closer to the end of the match we are the more erratic the odds can be.
The match result is a two way bet with a draw voiding the bet. But as always be careful to check the settlement rules. Bookmakers may well have different settlement rules and there is no point in striking an arb if subsequently events turn against you eg. the weather, and the settlement rules of the two sides of the arb differ. This is where a little research before the match begins will be essential.
Total runs market
The total runs market will usually be split into the obligatory three categories. Due to the large number of possible runs in a cricket match these categories will vary from match to match and each individual bookmaker will have their own ranges of total runs. This gives rise to firstly differences of opinion and secondly the possible chance to land a double-whammy bet where both sides of the arb pay out. The total runs market is arguably more volatile than the match result. Volatility equals arbs.
Next man out
The batting pair will often be pitted against each other as the next man out. Assuming their abilities are equal then they will be priced up as 10/11 each. The arb will only show itself if there is a clear difference in batting ability. An opener with a number seven or eight in the batting order will make the opener as clear favourite to stay in.
However the poorer batsman may tend to give the opener the strike more often and so be less vulnerable to being out. Opinions, opinions, the odds compiler must make these decisions instantly to produce a price. Horrendous differences have appeared in the past with arbs of 10% or more appearing regularly on this market.
The arbs have been known to come faster in cricket than you can collect them. It is worth the investment of time as in-running betting on cricket will keep you very busy.
Snooker
The winner of the match is the bet to concentrate on here. With the advent of bigger pockets and faster cloths, coupled with the ever increasing ability of players, one mistake is usually crucial in a frame of snooker. One missed shot, an easy ball, will Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
usually turn the odds upside down for a winner of the match, if the match is on a knife-edge.
It is the only realistic arb opportunity in snooker, but can be interesting as the bookmaker not only has to alter their odds instantly but has to decide the relative chance of the opposing player ‘clearing up’. This is a lot easier when the match is on the last six colours as opposed to when there are still fifteen reds on the table.
You need to get involved towards the end of the match. First round matches are typically first to 5. The first round in the world championship at the Crucible is first to 10. We need to be down to the last 3 frames for a mistake to make a crucial difference. Whether a player wins or loses the first frame the match odds will not change but when we are down to the final 3 frames any mistake can be crucial and give one player a huge advantage over the other one.
A typical scenario of a match of two players of equal ability will see the odds of either player winning as 10/11 or 5/6 depending on the greed of the bookmaker. These odds will stay the same if the match reaches 3-3. At this point any mistake that occurs will be vital. The player who takes the lead will see their odds drop to typically 1/4 and the opposing player about 7/2. Therefore any mistake which leads to a player looking like taking a 4-3 lead will have the bookmakers scampering for cover.
Again, as always, we don’t care what the prices are, who is winning and what the sport is, but the confusion of the betting arena for in-running arbs can produce erratic pricing and this equates to arbs.
Don’t necessarily expect the compiler to be slow to change their prices for these in-running events just so long as one or more disagree.
With all in-running arbs you must be watching the action to be fully aware of the opportunities that will present itself.
In terms of the betting find out what the maximum bets are for each bookmaker before the match starts. This will save vital time and avoid the disappointment of one half of your arb not being able to be completed.
Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com