Collaborative Statistics by Robert Gallagher - HTML preview

PLEASE NOTE: This is an HTML preview only and some elements such as links or page numbers may be incorrect.
Download the book in PDF, ePub, Kindle for a complete version.

Chapter 1

Sampling and Data

1.1 Sampling and Data1

1.1.1 Student Learning Outcomes

By the end of this chapter, the student should be able to:

• Recognize and differentiate between key terms.

• Apply various types of sampling methods to data collection.

• Create and interpret frequency tables.

1.1.2 Introduction

You are probably asking yourself the question, "When and where will I use statistics?". If you read any

newspaper or watch television, or use the Internet, you will see statistical information. There are statistics

about crime, sports, education, politics, and real estate. Typically, when you read a newspaper article or

watch a news program on television, you are given sample information. With this information, you may

make a decision about the correctness of a statement, claim, or "fact." Statistical methods can help you make

the "best educated guess."

Since you will undoubtedly be given statistical information at some point in your life, you need to know

some techniques to analyze the information thoughtfully. Think about buying a house or managing a

budget. Think about your chosen profession. The fields of economics, business, psychology, education,

biology, law, computer science, police science, and early childhood development require at least one course

in statistics.

Included in this chapter are the basic ideas and words of probability and statistics. You will soon under-

stand that statistics and probability work together. You will also learn how data are gathered and what

"good" data are.

1.2 Statistics2

The science of statistics deals with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. We see

and use data in our everyday lives.

1This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16008/1.9/>.

2This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16020/1.14/>.

13

index-24_1.png

14

CHAPTER 1. SAMPLING AND DATA

1.2.1 Optional Collaborative Classroom Exercise

In your classroom, try this exercise. Have class members write down the average time (in hours, to the

nearest half-hour) they sleep per night. Your instructor will record the data. Then create a simple graph

(called a dot plot) of the data. A dot plot consists of a number line and dots (or points) positioned above

the number line. For example, consider the following data:

5; 5.5; 6; 6; 6; 6.5; 6.5; 6.5; 6.5; 7; 7; 8; 8; 9

The dot plot for this data would be as follows:

Frequency of Average Time (in Hours) Spent Sleeping per Night

Figure 1.1

Does your dot plot look the same as or different from the example? Why? If you did the same example in

an English class with the same number of students, do you think the results would be the same? Why or

why not?

Where do your data appear to cluster? How could you interpret the clustering?

The questions above ask you to analyze and interpret your data. With this example, you have begun your

study of statistics.

In this course, you will learn how to organize and summarize data. Organizing and summarizing data is

called descriptive statistics. Two ways to summarize data are by graphing and by numbers (for example,

finding an average). After you have studied probability and probability distributions, you will use formal

methods for drawing conclusions from "good" data. The formal methods are called inferential statistics.

Statistical inference uses probability to determine how confident we can be that the conclusions are correct.

Effective interpretation of data (inference) is based on good procedures for producing data and thoughtful

examination of the data. You will encounter what will seem to be too many mathematical formulas for

interpreting data. The goal of statistics is not to perform numerous calculations using the formulas, but to

gain an understanding of your data. The calculations can be done using a calculator or a computer. The

understanding must come from you. If you can thoroughly grasp the basics of statistics, you can be more

confident in the decisions you make in life.

15

1.3 Probability3

Probability is a mathematical tool used to study randomness. It deals with the chance (the likelihood) of

an event occurring. For example, if you toss a fair coin 4 times, the outcomes may not be 2 heads and 2

tails. However, if you toss the same coin 4,000 times, the outcomes will be close to half heads and half tails.

The expected theoretical probability of heads in any one toss is 1 or 0.5. Even though the outcomes of a

2

few repetitions are uncertain, there is a regular pattern of outcomes when there are many repetitions. After

reading about the English statistician Karl Pearson who tossed a coin 24,000 times with a result of 12,012

heads, one of the authors tossed a coin 2,000 times. The results were 996 heads. The fraction 996 is equal

2000

to 0.498 which is very close to 0.5, the expected probability.

The theory of probability began with the study of games of chance such as poker. Predictions take the form

of probabilities. To predict the likelihood of an earthquake, of rain, or whether you will get an A in this

course, we use probabilities. Doctors use probability to determine the chance of a vaccination causing the

disease the vaccination is supposed to prevent. A stockbroker uses probability to determine the rate of

return on a client’s investments. You might use probability to decide to buy a lottery ticket or not. In your

study of statistics, you will use the power of mathematics through probability calculations to analyze and

interpret your data.

1.4 Key Terms4

In statistics, we generally want to study a population. You can think of a population as an entire collection

of persons, things, or objects under study. To study the larger population, we select a sample. The idea of

sampling is to select a portion (or subset) of the larger population and study that portion (the sample) to

gain information about the population. Data are the result of sampling from a population.

Because it takes a lot of time and money to examine an entire population, sampling is a very practical

technique. If you wished to compute the overall grade point average at your school, it would make sense

to select a sample of students who attend the school. The data collected from the sample would be the

students’ grade point averages. In presidential elections, opinion poll samples of 1,000 to 2,000 people are

taken. The opinion poll is supposed to represent the views of the people in the entire country. Manu-

facturers of canned carbonated drinks take samples to determine if a 16 ounce can contains 16 ounces of

carbonated drink.

From the sample data, we can calculate a statistic. A statistic is a number that is a property of the sample.

For example, if we consider one math class to be a sample of the population of all math classes, then the

average number of points earned by students in that one math class at the end of the term is an example of

a statistic. The statistic is an estimate of a population parameter. A parameter is a number that is a property

of the population. Since we considered all math classes to be the population, then the average number of

points earned per student over all the math classes is an example of a parameter.

One of the main concerns in the field of statistics is how accurately a statistic estimates a parameter. The

accuracy really depends on how well the sample represents the population. The sample must contain the

characteristics of the population in order to be a representative sample. We are interested in both the

sample statistic and the population parameter in inferential statistics. In a later chapter, we will use the

sample statistic to test the validity of the established population parameter.

A variable, notated by capital letters like X and Y, is a characteristic of interest for each person or thing in

a population. Variables may be numerical or categorical. Numerical variables take on values with equal

3This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16015/1.11/>.

4This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16007/1.16/>.

16

CHAPTER 1. SAMPLING AND DATA

units such as weight in pounds and time in hours. Categorical variables place the person or thing into a

category. If we let X equal the number of points earned by one math student at the end of a term, then X

is a numerical variable. If we let Y be a person’s party affiliation, then examples of Y include Republican,

Democrat, and Independent. Y is a categorical variable. We could do some math with values of X (calculate

the average number of points earned, for example), but it makes no sense to do math with values of Y

(calculating an average party affiliation makes no sense).

Data are the actual values of the variable. They may be numbers or they may be words. Datum is a single

value.

Two words that come up often in statistics are mean and proportion. If you were to take three exams in

your math classes and obtained scores of 86, 75, and 92, you calculate your mean score by adding the three

exam scores and dividing by three (your mean score would be 84.3 to one decimal place). If, in your math

class, there are 40 students and 22 are men and 18 are women, then the proportion of men students is 22

40

and the proportion of women students is 18 . Mean and proportion are discussed in more detail in later

40

chapters.

NOTE: The words "mean" and "average" are often used interchangeably. The substitution of one

word for the other is common practice. The technical term is "arithmetic mean" and "average" is

technically a center location. However, in practice among non-statisticians, "average" is commonly

accepted for "arithmetic mean."

Example 1.1

Define the key terms from the following study: We want to know the average amount of money

first year college students spend at ABC College on school supplies that do not include books. We

randomly survey 100 first year students at the college. Three of those students spent $150, $200,

and $225, respectively.

Solution

The population is all first year students attending ABC College this term.

The sample could be all students enrolled in one section of a beginning statistics course at ABC

College (although this sample may not represent the entire population).

The parameter is the average amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college stu-

dents at ABC College this term.

The statistic is the average amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college students

in the sample.

The variable could be the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student.

Let X = the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student attending ABC

College.

The data are the dollar amounts spent by the first year students. Examples of the data are $150,

$200, and $225.

1.4.1 Optional Collaborative Classroom Exercise

Do the following exercise collaboratively with up to four people per group. Find a population, a sample,

the parameter, the statistic, a variable, and data for the following study: You want to determine the average

17

number of glasses of milk college students drink per day. Suppose yesterday, in your English class, you

asked five students how many glasses of milk they drank the day before. The answers were 1, 0, 1, 3, and 4

glasses of milk.

1.5 Data5

Data may come from a population or from a sample. Small letters like x or y generally are used to represent

data values. Most data can be put into the following categories:

• Qualitative

• Quantitative

Qualitative data are the result of categorizing or describing attributes of a population. Hair color, blood

type, ethnic group, the car a person drives, and the street a person lives on are examples of qualitative data.

Qualitative data are generally described by words or letters. For instance, hair color might be black, dark

brown, light brown, blonde, gray, or red. Blood type might be AB+, O-, or B+. Researchers often prefer to

use quantitative data over qualitative data because it lends itself more easily to mathematical analysis. For

example, it does not make sense to find an average hair color or blood type.

Quantitative data are always numbers. Quantitative data are the result of counting or measuring attributes

of a population. Amount of money, pulse rate, weight, number of people living in your town, and the

number of students who take statistics are examples of quantitative data. Quantitative data may be either

discrete or continuous.

All data that are the result of counting are called quantitative discrete data. These data take on only certain

numerical values. If you count the number of phone calls you receive for each day of the week, you might

get 0, 1, 2, 3, etc.

All data that are the result of measuring are quantitative continuous data assuming that we can measure

accurately. Measuring angles in radians might result in the numbers π , π , π ,

, etc. If you and your

6

3

2

π , 3 π

4

friends carry backpacks with books in them to school, the numbers of books in the backpacks are discrete

data and the weights of the backpacks are continuous data.

Example 1.2: Data Sample of Quantitative Discrete Data

The data are the number of books students carry in their backpacks. You sample five students.

Two students carry 3 books, one student carries 4 books, one student carries 2 books, and one

student carries 1 book. The numbers of books (3, 4, 2, and 1) are the quantitative discrete data.

Example 1.3: Data Sample of Quantitative Continuous Data

The data are the weights of the backpacks with the books in it. You sample the same five students.

The weights (in pounds) of their backpacks are 6.2, 7, 6.8, 9.1, 4.3. Notice that backpacks carrying

three books can have different weights. Weights are quantitative continuous data because weights

are measured.

Example 1.4: Data Sample of Qualitative Data

The data are the colors of backpacks. Again, you sample the same five students. One student has

a red backpack, two students have black backpacks, one student has a green backpack, and one

student has a gray backpack. The colors red, black, black, green, and gray are qualitative data.

NOTE: You may collect data as numbers and report it categorically. For example, the quiz scores

for each student are recorded throughout the term. At the end of the term, the quiz scores are

reported as A, B, C, D, or F.

5This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16005/1.15/>.

18

CHAPTER 1. SAMPLING AND DATA

Example 1.5

Work collaboratively to determine the correct data type (quantitative or qualitative). Indicate

whether quantitative data are continuous or discrete. Hint: Data that are discrete often start with

the words "the number of."

1. The number of pairs of shoes you own.

2. The type of car you drive.

3. Where you go on vacation.

4. The distance it is from your home to the nearest grocery store.

5. The number of classes you take per school year.

6. The tuition for your classes

7. The type of calculator you use.

8. Movie ratings.

9. Political party preferences.

10. Weight of sumo wrestlers.

11. Amount of money (in dollars) won playing poker.

12. Number of correct answers on a quiz.

13. Peoples’ attitudes toward the government.

14. IQ scores. (This may cause some discussion.)

1.6 Variation6

1.6.1 Variation in Data

Variation is present in any set of data. For example, 16-ounce cans of beverage may contain more or less

than 16 ounces of liquid. In one study, eight 16 ounce cans were measured and produced the following

amount (in ounces) of beverage:

15.8; 16.1; 15.2; 14.8; 15.8; 15.9; 16.0; 15.5

Measurements of the amount of beverage in a 16-ounce can may vary because different people make the

measurements or because the exact amount, 16 ounces of liquid, was not put into the cans. Manufacturers

regularly run tests to determine if the amount of beverage in a 16-ounce can falls within the desired range.

Be aware that as you take data, your data may vary somewhat from the data someone else is taking for the

same purpose. This is completely natural. However, if two or more of you are taking the same data and

get very different results, it is time for you and the others to reevaluate your data-taking methods and your

accuracy.

1.6.2 Variation in Samples

It was mentioned previously that two or more samples from the same population, taken randomly, and

having close to the same characteristics of the population are different from each other. Suppose Doreen and

Jung both decide to study the average amount of time students at their college sleep each night. Doreen and

Jung each take samples of 500 students. Doreen uses systematic sampling and Jung uses cluster sampling.

Doreen’s sample will be different from Jung’s sample. Even if Doreen and Jung used the same sampling

method, in all likelihood their samples would be different. Neither would be wrong, however.

6This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16021/1.15/>.

19

Think about what contributes to making Doreen’s and Jung’s samples different.

If Doreen and Jung took larger samples (i.e. the number of data values is increased), their sample results

(the average amount of time a student sleeps) might be closer to the actual population average. But still,

their samples would be, in all likelihood, different from each other. This variability in samples cannot be

stressed enough.

1.6.2.1 Size of a Sample

The size of a sample (often called the number of observations) is important. The examples you have seen

in this book so far have been small. Samples of only a few hundred observations, or even smaller, are

sufficient for many purposes. In polling, samples that are from 1200 to 1500 observations are considered

large enough and good enough if the survey is random and is well done. You will learn why when you

study confidence intervals.

Be aware that many large samples are biased.

For example, call-in surveys are invariable biased

because people choose to respond or not.

1.6.2.2 Optional Collaborative Classroom Exercise

Exercise 1.6.1

Divide into groups of two, three, or four. Your instructor will give each group one 6-sided die.

Try this experiment twice. Roll one fair die (6-sided) 20 times. Record the number of ones, twos,

threes, fours, fives, and sixes you get below ("frequency" is the number of times a particular face

of the die occurs):

First Experiment (20 rolls)

Face on Die

Frequency

1

2

3

4

5

6

Table 1.1

Second Experiment (20 rolls)

Face on Die

Frequency

1

2

3

4

5

6

20

CHAPTER 1. SAMPLING AND DATA

Table 1.2

Did the two experiments have the same results? Probably not. If you did the experiment a third

time, do you expect the results to be identical to the first or second experiment? (Answer yes or

no.) Why or why not?

Which experiment had the correct results? They both did. The job of the statistician is to see

through the variability and draw appropriate conclusions.

1.6.3 Critical Evaluation

We need to critically evaluate the statistical studies we read about and analyze before accepting the results

of the study. Common problems to be aware of include

• Problems with Samples: A sample should be representative of the population. A sample that is not

representative of the population is biased. Biased samples that are not representative of the popula-

tion give results that are inaccurate and not valid.

• Self-Selected Samples: Responses only by people who choose to respond, such as call-in surveys are

often unreliable.

• Sample Size Issues: Samples that are too small may be unreliable. Larger samples are better if possible.

In some situations, small samples are unavoidable and can still be used to draw conclusions, even

though larger samples are better. Examples: Crash testing cars, medical testing for rare conditions.

• Undue influence: Collecting data or asking questions in a way that influences the response.

• Non-response or refusal of subject to participate: The collected responses may no longer be represen-

tative of the population. Often, people with strong positive or negative opinions may answer surveys,

which can affect the results.

• Causality: A relationship between two variables does not mean that one causes the other to occur.

They may both be related (correlated) because of their relationship through a different variable.

• Self-Funded or Self-Interest Studies: A study performed by a person or organization in order to sup-

port their claim. Is the study impartial? Read the study carefully to evaluate the work. Do not

automatically assume that the study is good but do not automatically assume the study is bad either.

Evaluate it on its merits and the work done.

• Misleading Use of Data: Improperly displayed graphs, incomplete data, lack of context.

• Confounding: When the effects of multiple factors on a response cannot be separated. Confounding

makes it difficult or impossible to draw valid conclusions about the effect of each factor.

1.7 Answers and Rounding Off7

A simple way to round off answers is to carry your final answer one more decimal place than was present

in the original data. Round only the final answer. Do not round any intermediate results, if possible. If it

becomes necessary to round intermediate results, carry them to at least twice as many decimal places as the

final answer. For example, the average of the three quiz scores 4, 6, 9 is 6.3, rounded to the nearest tenth,

because the data are whole numbers. Most answers will be rounded in this manner.

It is not necessary to reduce most fractions in this course. Especially in Probability Topics (Section 4.1), the

chapter on probability, it is more helpful to leave an answer as an unreduced fraction.

7This content is available online at <http://cnx.org/content/m16006/1.7/>.

21

1.8 Frequency8

Twenty students were asked how many hours they worked per day. Their responses, in hours, are listed

below:

5; 6; 3; 3; 2; 4; 7; 5; 2; 3; 5; 6; 5; 4; 4; 3; 5; 2; 5; 3

Below is a frequency table listing the different data values in ascending order and their frequencies.

Frequency Table of Student Work Hours

DATA VALUE

FREQUENCY

2

3

3

5

4

3

5

6

6

2

7

1

Table 1.3

A frequency is the number of times a given datum occurs in a data set. According to the table above,

there are three students who work 2 hours, five