South Africa can’t save itself just by talking the talk. It must walk the walk
March 2, 2017
Associate Professor in Public Law, University of Cape Town, is affiliated with the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, the Open Democracy Advice Centre and The Paternoster Group.
South Africa is fast approaching a crossroads at which it will have to choose between structural reform and a lurch to populist nationalism. So, too, is its governing African National Congress (ANC), which later this year must elect a successor to its president, Jacob Zuma.
With a range of conflicting ideas of how to address the countries socio-economic challenges, some people are floating the idea of convening an economic Codesa. This borrows from the Convention for a Democratic South Africa - the all-party forum which negotiated the country’s transition to democracy in the early 1990’s.
In his 2017 budget speech South Africa’s Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, pulled up short of calling for an ‘economic Codesa’. He invited discussion on whether the constitution’s bill of rights should be extended to include “economic rights”. Such rights may include a right to work, a legally guaranteed national minimum wage or even a right to a basic income.
Taken together with Gordhan’s chilling message about the state of the economy, his invitation for discussion deserves some attention. Unemployment remains stubbornly high around the 35% mark, economic growth remains sluggish around 1% and the budget deficit is ballooning.
Clearly South Africa’s social compact is at breaking point, evidenced in part by the xenophobic violence and protests against foreigners that swept through Pretoria and Johannesburg recently.
There’s certainly the need for a conflict breaking dialogue even for sharply differing groups within the governing party, the ANC. A view of what was expressed in the president’s 2017 state of the nation address versus the 2017 budget speech lays bare some of the deep seated disagreements.
Raging populism
Zuma’s address was peppered with reference to the party’s new slogan: “radical economic transformation”. Zuma pulled his populist punches but added little flesh to the bones of the slogan, leaving Gordhan to offer a more measured and precise vision of “inclusive growth” two weeks later.
And herein lies the rub, and the predicament. Within the governing party there are those who want a nationalist form of transformation. They are pushing for the continued handing of economic power and wealth to a small group of black politically connected individuals. They care little if at all for the socio-economic precariousness of the majority of their compatriots.
On the other hand, there are those who are still focused on addressing substantive inequality. They include Gordhan, the minister for economic development, Ebrahim Patel, and the minister of trade & industry, Rob Davies.
Coming about two weeks after the state of the nation address, Gordhan’s budget speech wrestled with the dilemmas that face South Africa. He’s been vilified for this amid the ongoing warfare within the governing party.
President of the ANC Youth League, Collen Maine – a Zuma loyalist – labelled Gordhan, a stalwart of the ANC’s liberation movement, an “impimpi”. This is a highly inflammatory term from the 1980s and the height of the struggle against apartheid used to name and shame community informers paid for by the regime.
Dangerous path
Why such a vicious attack against Gordhan? He’s been willing to stare down the nationalists within the ANC, who have benefited from the weaknesses of Zuma’s leadership. They wish to extend the era of crony capitalism and “state capture” by venal private interests such as the notorious Gupta family that began when Zuma took power in 2009.
Gordhan has noted South Africa’s dangerous political trajectory. He quoted from the ANC’s famous 1969 policy conference in Morogoro, Tanzania where it was resolved that:
Our nationalism must not be confused with chauvinism or narrow nationalism of a previous epoch. It must not be confused with the classical drive by an elitist group among the oppressed people to gain ascendancy so that they can replace the oppressor in the exploitation of the masses.
It was a masterful citation by Gordhan: as he’s done for the past year in his stand against high level corruption that’s contaminated the government with its dangerous lurch to elite nationalism.
Slow transformation
While seeing the need for some dialogue I’m of the view that calls for an “economic Codesa” may be fundamentally misguided. The idea that South Africa can summon the wherewithal, and good faith of all the requisite social, economic and political stakeholders, may be wishful thinking during a bitterly contested succession year in the ANC.
The original Codesa which began in 1991 may have been an inclusive, carefully facilitated and mediated negotiation process. Today there’s a sense that in delivering a political settlement, it didn’t do enough to secure economic justice and transformation.
Too much of the “old economy” – as characterized by the powerful political slogan “white monopoly capital” – remains intact. This gives credibility to the militant, anti-establishment political brands like the Economic Freedom Fighters. The rise of the EFF, in turn, has triggered the ANC’s call for ‘radical economic transformation’ to regain lost ground.
Julius Malema, the former ANC Youth League president who started the EFF, presumably, would welcome the opportunity to advance the case for redistribution of land ownership alongside other structural reforms of the South African economy. But who else would join the dialogue and from what angle?
Constitutional rights
Gordhan’s talk of economic rights may be seen as one useful avenue. But then South Africa’s constitution already provides a far reaching number of justiciable socio-economic rights. These include the rights to access basic services like housing and education. And so, the question would be: what more can be added to economic rights?
A debate about amending the constitution would arguably be meaningless without a parallel process of debate about economic policy and about the relative roles and responsibilities of labour, government and the private sectors. At a very minimum, such a process would need to surface the true concerns and interests of all the parties. It would need to identify the core non-negotiables of each, while ascertaining those areas where compromise and a shift in position would be possible and valuable.
And are the labour unions willing to sacrifice some of the legal protections that they acquired in the mid-1990s in return for commitments from business that would create, for example, more youth employment and apprenticeships?
In turn, would business be willing to sacrifice profits in return for concessions from labour and government that would enable them to attract larger long-term investments in the productive industrial sector?
And what’s the solution to the painful shortage of skills and the disaster of public education and what do each of the three main players need to do differently to make substantial progress, and quickly?
Political will
A properly organised process of constructive engagement and dialogue such as Codesa requires a considerable investment in political capital and goodwill. It’s far from clear if a sufficient number of the key political players are willing to find it.
But it’s surely worth trying. South Africa has probably very little to lose at this stage. Without such a consensus finding process that confronts the fundamental contradictions and the unanswered questions of socio-economic transformation, the clamor for populist nationalism is likely to grow rapidly to the point where it’s overwhelming, in every sense of the word.
How world sees SA: Under Zuma, South Africa is an organised crime syndicate heading for ruin
Staff Writer
South Africa is sinking so swiftly in the quicksand of moral decay that corruption and state looting have become institutionalized. An influential London-based newspaper has highlighted the astonishing reality there is so much corruption and crime across all levels of government that it no longer makes the headlines that a country’s high commissioner has finally been sacked over revelations that she is a convicted drug trafficker. The Times reports the case of Hazel Ngubeni, a former air hostess who went to jail for operating as a drug mule before emerging from jail and somehow managing to inveigle her way into a job as a diplomat. As extraordinary as that might seem, Ngubeni is not the only diplomat with a dark cloud of controversy hanging over her head. Another diplomat is still based in London even though he had large unexplained cash sums in his bank account. The Times paints a picture for its readers of a ruling party that has positioned thieves across all levels of government, with President Jacob Zuma presiding over a shameless strategy to tap state resources for personal gain. The ANC seems to be oblivious to the reality that this is not how a democracy is run and that it is looking more like an organised crime syndicate than a collection of noble freedom fighters.2 While ANC leaders keep their eyes shut and grab whatever they can, other governments must surely be pondering whether it is time to relegate South Africa to the diplomatic sidelines. Which global citizens can be happy knowing that South Africa’s diplomats can skirt laws for criminal objectives? – Jackie Cameron
Cyril Ramaphosa’s challenge to the corrupt president is a last chance for ANC and the nation, writes Jenni Russell in a scathing review of the state of South Africa for The Times.
The media outlet has pointed to the case of the South African high commissioner to Singapore who was finally sacked four months after a newspaper exposed her criminal past.
“It had not been the diplomat’s first smuggling arrest. Four years earlier she had gone on trial in South Africa for importing nine kilos of heroin in her suitcase; after the witnesses mysteriously declined to testify, her trial collapsed. Hazel Ngubeni had omitted to declare her conviction to the authorities, and months of security vetting had apparently been unable to uncover these basic facts,” says Russell.
“Until that point officials had managed not to notice that the high commissioner was a drug trafficker who had served a two-year sentence in an American jail for smuggling cocaine while working as an air hostess,” she says.
Highighting that the Ngubeni case is not an isolated incident, Russell outlines how the high commissioner to Britain also failed his vetting. And, although he had too many large unexplained cash sums deposited in his bank accounts, he remains in London today.
“Neither of these stories caused more than a ripple in the news. They are competing with so many daily accounts of lies and corruption that they cannot make an impact. The ANC under President Zuma is running a country where official thieving, from the government and police chiefs downwards, is commonplace and rarely punished,” says Russell.
Other news outlined in her piece includes:
The Times notes that “such institutionalized corruption has led the ANC into its greatest crisis since the end of white minority rule in 1994″, with Zuma putting all his power and energy into preventing being jailed for corruption.
“If Ramaphosa can persuade the party to back him, he might just pull both state and party out of decline. The nation is in desperate need of it, with poverty and inequality entrenched, zero growth last year and unemployment at more than 26 per cent.
Fight, the beloved country,” she adds.
How world sees SA: Zuma ‘functionally illiterate on economics’, country ruled by thieves
By Matthew le Cordeur
South Africans have become accustomed to having a president that is a bit of a clown: falls asleep on the job, can’t count properly and is generally daft on a day-to-day basis. But the international community is still coming to grips with the reality that a man of his ilk is running a major economy on the African continent. What’s more, the message is spreading fast that President Jacob Zuma is highly incompetent at his job to the detriment of investment returns and business growth. In a commentary, influential Wall Street adviser Ian Bremmer has politely referred to Zuma as “functionally illiterate on economics”. Reality is starting to dawn beyond the borders that South Africa is now a kleptocracy, effectively ruled by thieves. Bremmer points to some positive aspects about the South African economy, including that the elite is a better racial mix and that the country is less dependent on commodities. But those highlights are unlikely to be enough to sway investors who see South Africa as a deeply dysfunctional country and they are unlikely to stave off a ratings downgrade for much longer. The rot has set in and international investors aren’t convinced it will be excised any time soon, is the stark message from Bremmer. – Jackie Cameron
Cape Town – South Africa’s day of reckoning with international rating agencies is coming as a result of President Jacob Zuma, who “ushered in a kleptocracy that’s now reached deep into his entire administration, barring the Treasury”.
That’s the view of Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer and author of Time magazine’s list of the world’s top geopolitical risks, who visited South Africa in February on a fact-finding mission.
Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer
Bremmer placed South Africa in 10th place on the Times risk list, an alarming position to be in considering the various tensions rising around the world.
An influential Wall Street adviser based in New York, Bremmer is a leading political scientist specializing in US foreign policy, states in transition and global political risk.
In an email to investors, analysts and economists around the world, Bremmer said he “encountered one of the most dysfunctional governments in the emerging market space right now”.
Zuma is ‘functionally illiterate on economics’
“President Jacob Zuma is an exceptionally savvy political tactician but functionally illiterate on economics,” said Bremmer.
“And he’s ushered in a kleptocracy that’s now reached deep into his entire administration, barring the Treasury.
“That they’ve managed to forestall credit downgrades is surprising, but the day of reckoning is coming, especially as the political pressures around Zuma mount.”
He pointed to hope in the form of Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, but said it seems he doesn’t have enough votes within the African National Congress (ANC) to make his rise to the presidency a reality.
How Zapiro views Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa’s current role. More magic available at zapiro.com
“There’s an eclectic but significant alliance forming around … Ramaphosa to take over the leadership of the … ANC party in December, with big business, the country’s trade unions, and the communists all hoping for an alternative to Zuma’s corruption.
“Ramaphosa certainly holds the moral high ground among party members, but that doesn’t count for much in the party’s internal elections, which will see some violence and is likely to be about brown envelopes rather than policy positions.
“At least for now, it doesn’t look like Ramaphosa has the votes inside the ANC.”
Glimmer of hope
However, Bremmer offered a sense of hope.
“Still, that doesn’t mean the wheels are about to fall off South Africa,” he said.
“There’s a rich talent base in the country – only about 20% of South Africa’s whites left the country post-apartheid, and the elite labour pool is now reasonably well mixed between black and white.
“Further, South Africa’s economy is no longer dominated by commodities, but instead has diversified towards infrastructure, services and information technology, all of which bodes well for a comparatively inexpensive and high quality-of-life destination.
“Education remains poor and immigration is limited (mostly because of spotty execution on visas rather than the policies themselves), which limits the upside, but you already see South Africa, on Europe’s time zone, becoming a more attractive back office destination for European firms.”
Africa’s rise is also good news for South Africa.
“As Africa itself continues to grow, the base for diversified firms continues to be South Africa,” said Bremmer.
“Especially because the larger African markets – Egypt and Nigeria – are otherwise unattractive as destinations for regional hubs.
“For increased consumption and infrastructure, Africa overall will still see moderate to high growth. Companies that plan on expanding investments accordingly will mostly situate themselves in South Africa.” – Fin24
South Africa’s ANC government: corrupt, inept and immoral
12 August 2016
Since its transition to majority rule in 1994, South Africa has enjoyed many years of almost universal adulation. Having lived in South Africa for a decade, I felt that much of that praise was undeserved. I got my fair share of criticism for pointing out what has eventually become conventional wisdom – South Africa is not an example for other societies to follow and its government is corrupt, inept and immoral. The outcome of last week’s local election suggests that the South African electorate is slowly waking up to the immense damage that the ruling African National Congress has inflicted on the country.
South Africa has never been the vaunted miracle portrayed by the sympathetic global press. To start with, consider some of the most basic measures of human wellbeing. Life expectancy in South Africa was 62 years in 1994. Last year, it was 57 years – a reduction of 7 percent. Meantime, global life expectancy increased from 66 years to 72 years – an increase of 8 percent.
The main reason for the collapse of life expectancy was the unchecked spread of HIV/AIDS and the government is to blame. Thabo Mbeki, who oversaw domestic policy under Nelson Mandela before becoming President himself, denied any connection between HIV and AIDS, and did little to stop the spread of the disease. As such, prevalence of HIV/AIDS exploded in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The decline in life expectancy was exacerbated by other government failures. For example, the country continues to suffer from a very high murder rate. While murders are rarer than they used to be in the 1990s, the government is responsible for demoralizing the police force through race-based hiring and promotion.
Even infant mortality, which has been declining throughout the world, remains relatively high. Consider that in 1994, the global infant mortality rate was 29 percent higher than that in South Africa. By 2015, South Africa’s infant mortality rate was 6 percent higher than global average. That is a result of declining public healthcare, which suffers from mismanagement and corruption.
Corruption, of course, has gotten worse over the last two decades and, as I have noted elsewhere, the same can be said of the rule of law, favouritism in decision making by government officials, wastefulness of government spending, diversion of public funds, transparency of government decision making and, inevitably, trust in public officials.
Economically, South Africa’s performance has been, at best, mediocre. South Africa’s average annual income per capita adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity was 54 percent of the global average in 1994. By 2015, that rose to 57 percent. If the current trend continues, the gap between South Africa and the world average will continue until the year 2342!
Internationally, the country has cosied up to Castro’s Cuba, Gaddafi’s Libya and Saddam’s Iraq, prompting one esteemed American commentator to call the country a “rogue democracy”. The growing global disenchantment with South Africa is often blamed on the rapidly declining quality of the country’s government. And, true enough, Nelson Mandela was a better president than Thabo Mbeki and Mbeki was better than the current leader Jacob Zuma. But, all three were democratically elected by voters who preferred to vote along racial lines – the ANC is credited with bringing about majority rule – rather than cast their votes for a more competent and less corrupt government.
Clearly, South Africa can do better. But, in order to do so, the country will have to embrace normal politics that put a premium on concrete government deliverables. As such, the results of the local elections, which took place last week, look promising. While the ANC has, once again, polled at more than 50 percent nationally, the party has lost majority control on city councils in Pretoria, the country’s capital, Johannesburg, the country’s economic powerhouse, and Port Elizabeth.
The Democratic Alliance, led by Mmusi Maimane, has made substantial gains. Prior to last week, the DA was only in charge of Cape Town. If it is able to form local coalitions, the DA will be able to show to South Africans living in other large cities that a more efficient and less corrupt government is possible. Once that happens, national elections in 2019 could turn out to be a close run affair. If the ANC falls below 50 percent, it might have to relinquish power for the first time in 25 years. Will the ANC go quietly or hang on to power like Robert Mugabe did in Zimbabwe? That, alas, is a topic for another column.
South Africa: Race and Economic Conflicts
Dr Anthea Jeffery, Head of Policy Research, IRR
There are many ideologues in the ruling party and the EFF with a vested interest in playing up racial incidents and portraying the repugnant words or conduct of t