The Arab Spring in Libya
Things were very complicated in the Libyan Arab Spring. Qaddafi, the Libyan socialist dictator, was a traditional enemy of the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, and even though an Arab he was a traditional Iranian ally i.e. like the Syrians. However in the last decade there were many problems in the Libyan-Iranian relations. The problems between Qaddafi and Iran made it very hard to understand whether it was Iran or Saudi Arabia who was more eager to support the Islamist rebels who were fighting Qaddafi.
At the following video you can see a confrontation between Qaddafi and the previous Saudi King, King Abdullah, during an Arab League meeting. See “Qaddafi VS King Abdullah”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoR9sxPVpjc
Qaddafi accuses the Saudis for inviting the Americans to defend themselves when Iraq (Saddam Hussein) invaded Kuwait, instead of finding another way to deal with the problem. Qaddafi also says that the Saudis are capable to ally with the devil in order to save themselves. The Saudi King calls Qaddafi a liar, and tells him that his grave is in front of him. That was in 2003, and in 2009 the two men exchanged insults again during an Arab League summit. See the Telegraph “Muammar Gaddafi accuses Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah of lying at Arab summit”, March 2009
Qaddafi had supported quite a few assassination attempts against the Saudi Kings, and the Saudis have done the same against Qaddafi.
On the other hand Qaddafi was a traditional Iranian ally. Since the rise of the Iranian Islamists to power in 1979, and the overthrow of the pro-American Iranian monarch, Qaddafi and the Iranian Islamists were jointly fighting the Saudis. The Saudis produced large quantities of oil, keeping oil prices low. Moreover the Saudi oilfields are easy fields, and oil can be produced at very low costs in Saudi Arabia. Qaddafi was counting on oil exports to pay the civil servants who supported his dictatorship in Libya, and the Saudi oil policies hurt him. For the geopolitics of the alliance between Qaddafi and Iran see “Libya and Syria : The 2 Arab Friends of Iran”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/02/02/libya-syria-the-2-arab-allies-of-iran/
On the other hand in the last decade there were many great problems in the Libyan-Iranian relations, and probably these problems became more important from the common hatred for the Saudi King.
This essay is mainly about the problems between Iran and Libya, and Iran’s role in the Libyan Arab Spring. I initially thought, but I was wrong, that the Iranians did not play a role in the toppling of Qaddafi, and they only hailed his assassination to strengthen their position in the post-Qaddafi Libya. See for example Daily Telegraph “Iran welcomes Muammar Gaddafi's death”, October 2011.
One of the problems between Qaddafi and Iran was that in 2007 Qaddafi and Sarkozy agreed that France would construct in Libya a plant for the production of nuclear energy. See for example Spiegel “Sarkozy Meets Gadhafi: France to Build Nuclear Reactor in Libya”, July 2007.
As you know the French are strong allies of the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, and the French have very problematic relations with the Turks and the Iranians. I guess that after the agreement between Qaddafi and Sarkozy, Qaddafi must have promised that he would stop attacking the French in North Africa, and probably cooperate with the French against Islamists. The problem is that some of the Islamists attacking the French in North Africa have very good relations with Iran, Sudan and Turkey.
Remember that the French need the uranium of Niger, Mali and Chad, for their production of nuclear energy. The French cover most of their energy needs with electricity produced from nuclear energy. The Iranians, together with their Chinese allies, want the uranium of North Africa too, and Qaddafi also wanted it, at least until the agreement with the French in 2007 was made. I guess things changed when Qaddafi made the agreement with the French in 2007, because the Frech would use a part of the African uranium for the production of nuclear energy in Libya.
Moreover, Qaddafi had very problematic relations with the strongest ally of Iran in Africa i.e. Sudan. Qaddafi had supported the Christians and the non-Arab separatists of Sudan, against the Arab Islamists of North Sudan. The oil of Sudan is located in South Sudan, while the Arab population is mainly located in North Sudan. See for example BBC “Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim flees Libya”, September 2011.
Map Libya and Sudan
http://yalibnan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/libya-sudan-map-e1410156072643.jpg
The separatists of Sudan managed to gain their independence in 2011, and Sudan was separated to Sudan and South Sudan, with the Arab population controlling the northern part, while the oil of the country came under the control of the non-Arab population of South Sudan. That was a great problem for China too, because China is the dominant player in the oil industry of Sudan and South Sudan.
The Arabs of Sudan lost their main source of revenue, and this probably played a role in their alliance with Saudi Arabia in 2015. As long as the Arabs of Sudan were exporting their oil from Port Sudan in the Red Sea, there was a lot of tension between them and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia exports oil from the red see too, through the East-West oil pipeline that ends at Yanbu Port. Saudi Arabia has very “easy” oil fields, and can produce oil with very low production costs i.e. around 10 dollars per barrel. The other oil exporting countries do not like that, because the huge Saudi production pushes oil prices downwards. On the other hand the non-oil exporting Muslim countries always want a share of the Saudi oil profits in order not to support the Saudi socialists and Al Qaeda against the Saudi King.
Map Oil Pipelines of Red Sea
Therefore we could say that Qaddafi played a role in Iran losing its main ally in Africa i.e. Sudan. Once the Arabs of Sudan stopped exporting oil, it became easier to improve relations with the Saudis, and that’s what happened in 2015, when the Saudis gave large economic donations to Sudan.
The Saudi East-West pipeline makes the Saudi exports to Europe and Africa cheaper, due to lower transportation costs, and it also gives Saudi Arabia an alternative when exporting oil to Asia. That’s very important in case Iran closes for Saudi Arabia the Straits of Hormuz, as Iran many times in the past has threatened to do.
Map
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/Hormuz_map.png
Things will become much worse for Saudi Arabia if Iran takes control of Yemen, because Iran will be able to also threaten Saudi Arabia at the Straits of Bab el Mandeb at the Gulf of Aden. For the time being the Saudis can feel secure at the Suez Canal, because they are allies with Egypt.
Another problem between Qaddafi and Iran was that Qaddafi was in very bad terms with the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, which is mainly funded by Iran. Hezbollah had a strong presence in Sudan, and together with Sudan she supported the Islamists of Libya. Qaddafi was supporting leftist terrorists in Lebanon against the Islamists of Hezbollah. For the role of Hezbollah in the Libyan Arab Spring see “Hizbullah’s part in Gaddafi’s downfall”, October 2011.
The special forces of Sudan, Hezbollah and Qatar were among the first ones who set foot in Libya to support the Libyan rebels. In the meantime the communist and nazi propaganda says that the Arab Spring was simply a plot of the CIA, without even mentioning all this struggle in the corrupt Islamic countries.
Another problem could have been that when Qaddafi abandoned his nuclear program in 2003, he gave his equipment to United States and England, essentially betraying Pakistan, which was selling nuclear technology and nuclear equipment in the black market. See “The Black Market for Nuclear Weapons”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/02/10/the-black-market-for-nuclear-weapons/
Pakistan is the only Muslim country which possesses nuclear weapons. I guess that Pakistan and North Korea are also selling nuclear technology and nuclear equipment in the black market to Iran too. Therefore betraying Pakistan could have been another thorn in the Qaddafi-Iranian relations. I must say that Russia is the county which has helps Iran to construct factories for the production of nuclear energy in Iran. But Russia would not be willing to help Iran obtain nuclear weapons, because Iran is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of oil and gas reserves. Therefore one day Russia might face the Iranian Islamists as enemies. Many times in the previous centuries Iran and Russia faced each other. Russia might even have to face an alliance of Iranian and Turkish Islamists, because Turkey does not have oil and gas, and there is a lot of room for cooperation between the Iranians and the Turks.
Contrary to Iran, Pakistan does not have oil and gas, and it wants the oil and gas of Iran, and I do not thing that Pakistan would hesitate to sell nuclear technology to Iran in exchange for oil and gas. Obviously at the same time Pakistan would have to assure its traditional ally Saudi Arabia that it will sell her nuclear weapons if the Iranians ever threaten Saudi Arabia. I have to say that it is more likely to assume that the Iranians get their nuclear purchases in the black market from North Korea, which is a Chinese ally and does not have diplomatic relations with the United States. The Iranians also tried to boost their nuclear technology from Argentina. See “Iran Taking Over Latin America”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/12/26/iran-overtaking-latin-america/
Another problem between Qaddafi and Iran was that after the Al Qaeda attack at the Twin Towers in 2001, Qaddafi started cooperating with the American and English secret services against the Islamists who were attacking all three of them. See “The Cooperation Between George Bush and the Libyan Dictator Against Al Qaeda”.
I have said many times that Al Qaeda is a Saudi terrorist organization, but because she against the Saudi King and the Americans, in many cases Al Qaeda has been supported by Iran, Sadam Hussein, Sudan, and other enemies of United States and the Saudi King.
After the improvement in the US-Iranian relations the willingness of Iran to support Al Qaeda will be significantly reduced. On the other side the United States has improved its relations with India and has hurt its relations with Pakistan, a strong Chinese ally, and Pakistan has a lot of influence in some groups of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Therefore Pakistan can support terrorist attacks against the United States if their relations further deteriorate in the future. The Americans are already accusing the Pakistanis of supporting terrorist attacks against them. See “Pakistan – Osama bin Laden”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/05/08/pakistan-osama-bin-laden/
All the above were great problems between Qaddafi and I was wrong to believe that the Iranians hailed Qaddafi’s death only to be nice to the new Libyan status-quo. Iran played a great role in Qaddafi’s overthrow, even if it did so through its allies i.e. Sudan and Hezbollah. The only concern Iran had about the overturn of Qaddafi was to prevent actors supported by France and Saudi Arabia to take control of the post Qaddafi Libya, due to the dominant presence of the French air force, and the support France could provide to the rebels.
In the same way the Iranians and the Turks feared French influence in post-Qaddafi Libya, the French were fearing a post-Qaddafi Libya which would be controlled by the Turks or the Iranians. The main reason Nicola Sarkozy made the mistake to support the rebels was that the Iranians or the Turks would become the dominant force in the post Qaddafi Libya. If the Turks and the Iranians were to become the dominant force in the post Qaddafi Libya they could create a hell for France in North Africa.
Nicola Sarkozy had already lost in Tunisia and Egypt, where he supported the socialist dictators who were allies of France and Saudi Arabia i.e. Ben Ali (Tunisia) and Mubarak (Egypt). Unfortunately for Nicola Sarkozy and France, Ben Ali and Mubark were toppled by the Islamists, and they had to flee to Saudi Arabia to save their lives from the Islamists supported by Turkey, Iran, Sudan, Qatar and Hezbollah.
The Islamists and the Communists had launched a propaganda war against Sarkozy, and he had to officially apologize for France’s stance in Tunisia. See for example the Guardian “Sarkozy admits France made mistakes over Tunisia”, January 2011.
In the past I thought that the reason the French supported the rebels was because they wanted to gain influence in Libya at the expense of the Italians. It is true that Italy is the European country with the closest economic relations with Libya, and the same is true for France in Algeria, and there is definitely some kind of competition between the South European countries in North Africa. But the main reason Sarkozy decide to help the rebels in Libya was his previous defeats in Tunisia and Egypt, where he supported the socialist dictators who were traditional allies of France.
Unfortunately the Islamist and Communist propaganda is everywhere, and it is so heavily funded in Europe and the United States, and no matter how cautious you are it will get you at some point. And if you are a silly silly this propaganda will convince you that everything that goes wrong in the world is because of greedy Europe and because of greedy United States.
But I also have to say that Nicola Sarkozy made a great mistake by not supporting Qaddafi against the Islamists. He should have supported him, and then try to defend himself against the propaganda war that would be launched against him by the Islamists in the Muslim World, and by the Communists in Europe and the United States. If Sarkozy had supported Qaddafi, the Islamist and Communist propaganda would attack him by saying that he supports an oppressor to get oil contracts in exchange.
Now the Communists and the Islamists are happy that Qaddafi is gone, but they pretend to be sad for his death, while it was the people who pay them that killed him. But they say that the greedy Europe and the greedy United States are responsible for his death, without mentioning anything about the rotten Islamic countries. But you did not see the Communists protesting in the streets of Europe and United States, asking Europe and United States to support Qaddafi, did you? No you didn’t. You only saw them after his death taking money from the Islamists and accusing Europe and the United States for Qaddafi’s death.
After Qaddafi was toppled a war for power broke out in Libya, with the Islamists supported by Turkey, Qatar and Iran, and the socialists supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and the Western countries.
I must also say that in Egypt the decision of Obama not to support the socialist dictator Hosni Mubarack against the Islamists played a very important role. Mubarack was a loyal American and Saudi ally, and even though he promoted anti-Semitism in Egypt, he never broke the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. With his decision not to support Mubark, President Obama poisoned his relations with the Saudi King and the Israeli Prime Minister.
Mubarak was succeeded by Morsi from the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi was funded by Turkey, Iran and Qatar, and when he was elected he received the Turkish President Tayip Erdogan in Egypt as an emperor. Maybe as a Sultan. Moreover the Iranian President visited Egypt after the Islamists rose to power, and this was the first time an Iranian President visited Egypt after the rise of the Iranian Islamists to power in 1979. See BBC “Iran President Ahmadinejad begins historic Egypt visit”, February 2013.
Morsi stayed in power for 1 year, and he was toppled by the Egyptian socialists who were supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and that deepened the crisis in the Turkish-Saudi relations, which was partly overcome after the death of King Abdullah, and the efforts of the new King i.e. King Salman.
The argument for the Egyptian Islamosocialists of the Muslim Brotherhood was that they rose to power by wining the elections. And that is true. The Egyptian Islamists won the election by promising everything to everyone, funding their propaganda with Turkish, Iranian and Qatari money. But as soon as Morsi became President he started granting himself with the powers of a king. See for example the Telegraph “Mohammed Morsi grants himself sweeping new powers in wake of Gaza”, November 2012
From all the above we can also understand why the Saudis were reluctant to help the Libyan Islamists against Qaddafi, even though they hated Qaddafi so much. The Saudis were afraid that they would not be able to compete on the ground with Turkey, Iran, Sudan and Qatar. They would love to kill Qaddafi but they were afraid of what was coming in Libya after Qaddafi. Also note that Omar Al Bashir, the islamosocialist Arab dictator of Sudan had very good relations with Turkey. See for example “Why Does Turkey Love Omar al-Bashir?”, March 2009.
Qaddafi was trying to distance Erdogan from the Sudanese, and he even awarded Erdogan the prize for human rights. See for example Ynetnews “Turkey's Erdogan wins Gaddafi prize for human rights”, November 2010.
If the Saudis were sure they could win on the ground in Libya, they would have torn Qaddafi to pieces. But they knew they could not compete on the ground with Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Sudan and Hezbollah.
As you can read at the following International Business Times, written at the time of the Libyan Arab Spring, there was a paradox in Libya. Iran seemed to support the rebels of Libya more than Saudi Arabia, even though Qaddafi had been an ally of Iran and a bitter enemy of Saudi Arabia. See International Business Times “Are Libyan rebels backed by Saudi Arabia or Iran”?, June 2011.
I hope the present essay sheds some light on why Iran was happy to see Qaddafi dead, and why the toppling of Qaddafi worried the Saudis.
