Russia vs Turkey: The Geopolitics of the South & The Turk Stream Pipelines by Lakovos Alhadeff - HTML preview

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The South and the Turk Stream Pipelines

 The South Stream pipeline would transfer Russian natural gas to Europe  through the Black Sea and Bulgaria, as you can see at the following map.

 Picture 42

img43.jpg

 The South Stream would have two main legs. The first leg would supply  Southern Europe through Greece, and the second leg would supply  Central Europe through Serbia. The South Stream would have an annual  capacity of 63 billion cubic meters. The cost of the South Stream was  estimated at 10 billion dollars in 2006, when the project was initially  announced, but by 2014 this estimate had increased to 40 billion dollars.

 Satisfying strict European environmental regulations was one of the main  reasons that led to increasing cost estimates. You can read about the cost  of the South Stream at the following article of the Oxford Energy  Institute, from Oxford University, titled 'Does the cancellation of South  Stream signal a fundamental reorientation of Russian gas export policy',  January 2015.

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 From 2008-10, Russia signed intergovernmental agreements with seven European   countries for the onshore section(s). The routes of the two onshore pipelines changed   over time as the project encountered increasing national and EU regulatory challenges. The total cost of South Stream (for the full 63 Bcm/year of capacity) was   estimated at around $40 billion in mid-2014, comprising: $17 billion for the Russian   Southern corridor; $14 billion for the offshore section and $9.5 billion for the   onshore European sections.

  http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Does-cancellation-   of-South-Stream-signal-a-fundamental-reorientation-of-Russian-gas-export-policy-   GPC-5.pdf

 In December 2014, the Russian president Vladimir Putin announced the  cancellation of the South Stream, and its replacement with the Turk  Stream, as you can read at the following Reuters article, titled 'Gazprom,  Turkey's Botas could build 63 bcm undersea gas pipeline: Gazprom  CEO', December 2014:

 1st and 2nd Paragraphs

 Russia's Gazprom and Turkey's Botas have signed a memorandum to build an   undersea pipeline to Turkey with an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters,   Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said on Monday.

 He said 14 bcm out of the total volume would go to Turkey, equivalent to roughly the   volume it currently buys.

 Separately, Russian Energy minister Alexander Novak said that Turkey was seeking a   15 percent discount for Russian gas. President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that   Turkey would get a 6 percent discount starting next year.

  http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/us-russia-gas-turkey-pipeline-  idUSKCN0JF33D20141201

 As you can read at the article, the Turkish Stream will be a partnership  between Gazprom, the state controlled Russian energy company, and  BOTAS, the state-controlled Turkish energy company. The Turk Stream  will have an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters i.e. the same with  the South Stream pipeline that the Turk Stream is supposed to replace.

 According to Reuters, Western Turkey will consume 14 billion cubic  meters of this natural gas, and the remaining 49 billion will be exported to  Europe. Turkey currently receives 14 billion cubic meters of Russian  natural gas through Ukraine. If the Turk Stream, the South Stream or  TANAP are ever built, Turkey will not depend on Ukraine anymore.  According to Reuters, Turkey was asking for a 15% discount on natural  gas prices in order to agree to the Turk Stream, and Russia offered 6%.  However negotiations are not over yet and Turkey is still asking for  higher discounts.

 Even though the South Stream and the Turk Stream have the same  capacity, the Turk Stream is a humble project when compared to the  South Stream. Both the Turk and the South Stream would cross the Black  Sea. The South Stream would exit in Bulgaria and the Turk Stream would  exit in Turkey. However Turkey will be the end of the road for the Turk  Stream, while Bulgaria would have only been the beginning for the South  Stream.

 According to the plan Gazprom will take the Turk Stream to the Turkish-Greek borders and leave it there. European countries will have to find a  way to reach the natural gas of the Turk Stream. On the contrary  Gazprom would take the South Stream to Italy and Austria. That's the  reason the Turk Stream will only costs 10 billion dollars while the South  Stream would cost 40 billion dollars.

 Russia wanted the Turk Stream to move parallel to the Blue Stream and  leave it to Turkey to connect it with the Turkish-Greek borders (red line).  Turkey on the other hand wanted the Turk Stream to exit directly at the  western part of Turkey, near the Greek-Turkish borders, and that's what  Russia and Turkey finally agreed to do (purple line).

 Picture 43

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You can see an actual map of the Turk Stream pipeline at the following  article of RT (Russia Today), which is a state owned Russian news  agency, titled 'Russia and Turkey agree on Turkish Stream onshore  route', February 2015.

  http://rt.com/business/230487-turkish-stream-new-route/