He is not a fan of scenario planning and sees it just to "frighten the elite".
"History does not go in a straight line. It goes through a series of tipping points," said
Johnson.
SA's credit downgrades formed one such tipping point, which has changed the game.
Another, in his view, will be when SA must ask the IMF for a bailout.
"Like most African countries, SA is ruled by a bureaucratic elite practicing nepotism
and that leads to a bloated civil service," said Johnson.
The ANC leadership change will be another major tipping point for SA, in his view.
"Whoever becomes the next ANC leader will be an improvement on Jacob Zuma and
will bring some positive uptick in the market for SA," he said.
"However, we have had a year of negative campaigning in this regard. The ANC
campaigned against white rule and would like to campaign against apartheid for the
next 100 years if it could. That leads it to make promises of land, health and mining
reform which will drive away investors and create bad market conditions."
In his view, it creates a climate of great uncertainty where consumers hold out on
buying so-called big-ticket items like cars and houses.
"Whoever is elected as next ANC leader will face a tough situation," said Johnson.
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The next tipping point will, therefore, be to see if any of the radical promises made
during campaigning will remain on the table afterwards.