Introduction
If it is to succeed, a mediation initiative cannot be launched at just any time; the conflict must be ripe for the initiation of negotiation. Parties resolve their conflict only when they have to do so-when each party's efforts to achieve a unilaterally satisfactory result are blocked and the parties feel trapped in an uncomfortable and costly predicament.
The idea of a ripe moment is by no means new or otherwise unfamiliar to diplomats. "Ripeness of time is one of the absolute essences of diplomacy," wrote John Campbell more than thirty years ago. "You have to do the right thing at the right time."1 Two years earlier, Henry Kissinger had recognized that "stalemate is the most propitious condition for settlement."2 Chester A. Crocker, U.S. assistant secretary of state for Africa between 1981 and 1989, said of the Namibian dispute, "The second half of 1987 was . . . the moment when the situation 'ripened.' "3 Conversely, practitioners often say that mediation is not advisable because a conflict is not yet ripe. In mid-1992, in the midst of ongoing conflict, the Iranian deputy foreign minister noted, "The situation in Azerbaijan is not ripe for such moves for mediation."4
The concept of a ripe moment centers on the conflicting parties' perception of a "mutually hurting stalemate" that-optimally-is associated with an impending, past, or recently avoided catastrophe. When parties find themselves locked in a conflict that they cannot escalate to victory and this deadlock is painful to both of them (although not necessarily in equal degree or for the same reasons), they seek an alternative policy, or a "way out." The catastrophe is an indication of pain that might increase sharply if prompt action to alter the situation is not taken. The stalemate can be viewed as a plateau (a flat and unpromising terrain without relief ), and the catastrophe as a precipice (the point where things suddenly and predictably get worse). A more dynamic metaphor is that of the moment when the upper hand slips and the lower hand rises, both part