Foreign and Regional Powers in the Middle East
The last geopolitical axis that must be taken into account is the interaction between the great powers and the regional players. The Russians want to block the connection of the Middle East to Europe, and they can do so in two ways. The first one is by blocking pipelines not controlled by the Russian government, and the second one is by controlling the pipelines that send oil and natural gas from the Middle East to Europe, in order to control supply and prices.
An example of a pipeline that was blocked by the Russians was the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would carry Qatari natural gas to Europe through Turkey, following the route Qatar - Saudi Arabia – Iraq – Syria -Turkey or Qatar – Kuwait – Iraq – Syria - Turkey (see following map).
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At the following Guardian article, titled “Syria intervention plan fuelled by oil interests, not chemical weapon concern”, August 2013, you can read that the Syrian dictator Assad refused to allow the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to pass through Syria, because as he said it would hurt the Russian interests in Europe.
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These strategic concerns, motivated by fear of expanding Iranian influence, impacted Syria primarily in relation to pipeline geopolitics. In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, c ontiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's rationale was 'to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas.'
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/30/syria-chemical-attack-war- intervention-oil-gas-energy-pipelines
An example where the Russians tried to take control of a pipeline themselves was the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. As you can read at the following CNBC article, titled “How Vladimir Putin and Russia Hope to Win Big in Syria, February 2013, Gazprom would construct and manage the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. CNBC is one of the largest American TV networks, and this article has a great analysis of the cold war between Russia and United States in the Middle East and North Africa, and I suggest that you read the whole thing.
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The Soviet Union acquired the Tardus Naval Port in Syria in 1971 without any real purpose for it. With their ships welcomed in Algeria, Cuba or Vietnam, Tardus was too insignificant to be developed. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lacked the funds to spend on the base and no reason to invest in it.
The Russian return to the Middle East brought them first to where the Soviet Union had had its closest ties. Libya had been a major buyer of arms and many of the military officers had studied in the Soviet Union. Russia was no longer a global power, but it could be used by the Libyans as a counter force to block domination by the United States and Europeans.
When Gaddafi fell, Tardus became Russia's only presence in the region. That and the discovery of vast gas deposits just offshore have transformed the once insignificant port into a strategic necessity.
Earlier at the United Nations, Russia had failed to realize that Security Council Resolution 1973 that was to implement a new policy of 'responsibility to protect' cloaked a hidden agenda. It was to be turned from a no-fly zone into a free-fire zone for NATO. That strategic blunder of not vetoing the resolution led to the destruction of Gaddafi's regime and cost Russia construction contracts and its investments in Libyan gas and oil to the tune of 10 billion dollars.
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―What Russia lost through the anti-Al-Assad alliance was the possibility to control the natural gas market across Europe and the means to shape events on the continent. In July 2011, Iran, Iraq, and Syria agreed to build a gas pipeline from the South Pars gas field in Iran to Lebanon and across the Mediterranean to Europe. The pipeline that would have been managed by Gazprom would have carried 110 million cubic meters of gas. About a quarter of the gas would be consumed by the transit countries, leaving seventy or so million cubic meters to be sold to Europe‖.
Violence in Iraq and the Syrian civil war has ended any hope that the pipeline will be built, but not all hope is lost.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100496808#
For the Qatar-Turkey and the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipelines, you can also read the article of the Russian news agency RT (Russia Today), titled “Energy ballet-2: Syria, Ukraine & Pipelineistan”, August 2014. You can read in the article that the Emir of Qatar visited Syria in 2009, in order to convince Assad to allow the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to pass through Syria, but Assad refused, because the pipeline would hurt Russian and Syrian interests. Moreover the article says that the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline had already been agreed.
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The Obama administration‘s Syria master plan was ‗Assad must go‘; regime change would yield a US- supported Muslim Brotherhood entity, and a key plank of Pipelineistan - the $10 billion Iran-Iraq- Syriagas pipeline - would be forever ditched.
The Emir of Qatar himself had taken the road to Damascus in 2009 to negotiate a Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline. Bashar alAssad though, said no; his excuse was his unwillingness to jeopardize Syria‘s energy deals with Russia.
And yet, in 2001, an agreement went ahead for a rival Iran-Iraq-Syria project. So the writing was on the wall – or on the (steel) pipes arriving one day in the Eastern Mediterranean. The gas for prospective European customers would in fact come from Iran‘s South Pars field, contiguous to Qatar‘s North Dome; together, they form the largest gas field on the planet.
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Thus the key economic rationale for the whole ‗Assad must go‘ disaster; a war OF terror largely financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with logistical support from Turkey, with Ankara, the CIA and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) gang running a ‗secret‘ weaponizing airlift of so-called ‗good‘ jihadists using Saudi, Qatari and Jordanian military cargo planes since 2012.
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Nabucco‘s idea was to bring gas to the EU via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. Bur where from? Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan were finally ruled out. It could be Azerbaijani gas, but that requires a fortune in extra investment. The Iraqi industry won‘t be ready anytime soon. And Iran will be finally in play only if a nuclear deal is clinched till the end of 2014, and sanctions lifted in 2015 (all this a major ‗if‘).
http://rt.com/op-edge/182816-energy-wars-ukraine-syria/
Now let's turn to the Americans. The Americans want to connect Middle East to Europe through Turkey, in order to reduce Russian influence in Europe. This can be done if the Jihadists of Qatar and Turkey win in Syria and Iraq, so that the Qatar-Turkey pipeline can be built, or if the Iraqi Kurds send natural gas and oil to Europe through Turkey, or finally if the Americans manage to reach an agreement with Iran, which I think would be the most convenient way for the Americans to supply Europe with natural gas and oil. They could also use a combination of all the above.
The Arab Spring was very convenient for the Americans, because it would bring to power in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa Islamist leaders controlled by their allies, Qatar and Turkey, and therefore the Russians would not be able to control the pipelines connecting Middle East and North Africa to Europe.
Finally China is trying to ensure its energy security by investing billions of dollars in all countries of the Middle East. China has heavily invested in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Iraq and United Arab Emirates. However the traditional ally of China in the Middle East is Iran, because Iran has been a traditional American enemy. It is Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar that are under pressure, in order to convince China to move away from Iran and towards them, because they all desperately need to sell oil and natural gas to China.
What I am going to say now is irrelevant to the subject but it is important in order to combat socialist propaganda. According to socialist propaganda, the Arab countries do not have an independent foreign policy, and they do as they are told by the Americans. You should examine the foreign policy of the Arabs in relation to China, which is a geopolitical rival of the US, but a great customer for the Arabs, and not the Arab foreign policy in relation to Russia, which is a geopolitical rival of the US, but a great competitor of the Arabs too. At the following pie charts you can see the best clients of Saudi Arabia.
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http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SA
Therefore whenever a socialist tells you that the Arab countries do as they are told by the Americans, you should talk to him about the Arab foreign policy towards China, which is a rival for the US and a customer for the Arabs, and also explain to him that when it comes to Russia, the Arab countries are behind the Americans because Russia is a great competitor for them in the oil and natural gas markets. I say so because above all this booklet aims in combating Communist and Nazi propaganda, and the only way this can be done is by explaining to the people what is really going on.
The way Saudi Arabia and Iran are approaching the US and China is actually very interesting. The Saudis are mainly selling to Asia, and therefore they want to turn away from the US. The US is no longer their best customer, and the Americans are not even willing to intervene in the Saudi-Iranian conflicts in the same way they used to do in the past, because they want to normalize their relations with the Iranians. Therefore the Saudis want to turn towards the best client, which is China. For the Saudis China would be the perfect customer and patron.
The problem for the Saudis is that even though China has invested billions in Saudi Arabia, she has much stronger ties with Iran than she has with Saudi Arabia. Therefore it is not easy for Saudi Arabia to completely abandon the US and turn to China. At the following analysis of the Wilson Centre, one of the major American think tanks, titled “Iran's Rouhani Puts U.S.- Saudi Ties to the Test”, October 2013, you can read that two former Saudi foreign ministers, Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Turki al-Faisal, said that whether the Saudis like it or not, they cannot abandon the Americans completely. As I just said the problem for the Saudis is that China has stronger bonds with Iran than Saudi Arabia, and Russia, the other big player, is a major competitor of Saudi Arabia in the oil markets. Moreover the Americans are still buying Saudi oil.
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In fact, the Saudi view of the U.S. track record in the Middle East since President George W.Bush‘s ―freedom agenda‖ to promote democracy and then his 2003 decision to invade Iraq amounts to a long indictment of American missteps and misjudgments for which Saudi Arabia has paid the cost and Iran collected the dividends. The U.S. invasion of Iraq resulted, in the words of Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, in a pro-Iranian Shiite government that ―handed Iraq to Iran on a silver platter.‖
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Then came the 2011 ―Arab Spring‖ in the name of democracy, which the Obama administration tried awkwardly to embrace along with the Muslim Brotherhood and similar Islamic groups that won elections in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco. Worst yet, it touched off unresolved civil wars in Yemen and Syria. The Saudis have never forgotten, or forgiven, that the Brotherhood backed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the 1990-91 Gulf War after the Saudis had offered thousands of Brotherhood members a place of refuge from persecution in Egypt and Syria.
The bitter Syrian civil war has become the latest bone of contention in the fraying U.S.-Saudi relationship. Since Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, are backing Syrian President Bashar alAssad and Saudi Arabia is backing his overthrow, Syria has become another test of American fidelity
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The problem now for Saudi Arabia is how to protect itself from the fallout of a U.S.-Iranian thaw and possible long-term rapprochement. In the mid-2000s, King Abdullah sought to diversify the kingdom‘s foreign friends away from Washington, taking his first trip abroad as king to China in January 2006.
The Chinese had provided Saudi Arabia with medium-range DF-3 missiles, capable even of carrying nuclear warhead to protect it from Iran in the late 1980s. The IHS Jane‘s Intelligence Review reported in July 2013 that China has sent more missiles and helped the Saudis built a second launching site with its Chinese missiles aimed at both Iran and Israel.
The Saudis know, however, that China is no substitute for the United States when it comes to ability, or political readiness, to project military power in the Middle East. So, the kingdom is in the process of purchasing $60 billion worth of all kinds of U.S. weaponry, including 84 more F-15s and an updated missile defense system. This has locked Saudi Arabia into the American security umbrella for decades to come.
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Two former American-educated Saudi ambassadors to Washington, Princes Bandar bin Sultan and Turki al-Faisal, both came to the same conclusion after decades of dealing with Saudi foreign policy: like it or not, ―the only game in town‖ for the Saudis was the United States. Whether this attitude will survive a U.S.-Iranian opening remains to be seen. The Saudi leadership has become used to coping with serious differences with Washington over the years. Its strategy has been to isolate and prevent them from upending the overall close security relationship.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/iran_rouhani_puts_us_saudi_ties_test_ottaway.pdf
On the other side, Iran wants to sell its oil and natural gas to Europe, which is the best client, but it is afraid that this might cause problems to its relations with China and Russia. And maybe destroying its alliance with Russia is not a big deal for Iran, but it is when it comes to China, because China is a major buyer of Iranian oil.
Qatar is trying to lure China too. As you can read in the 4th paragraph of the following Al Arabiya article, titled “Qatar looks East: Growing importance of China's LNG market”, November 2014, China is Qatar's fourth largest client, following Japan, India, and South Korea. In the 8th paragraph of the following article you can read that when it comes to liquefied natural gas, Qatar is the world's largest exporter. That is if natural gas sold by pipelines is not taken into account. When all natural gas sales are taken into account, Russia is the world's largest exporter.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/business/2014/11/24/Qatar-looks-East-Growing-importance-of-China-s-LNG-market.html
At the following Reuters article, titled “Qatar to become first Middle East clearing hub for China's yuan”, November 2014, you will read that China created in Qatar her first hub for clearing transactions in Chinese Yuan, in order to reduce her dependency on the dollar.
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―Qatar will become the Middle East's first hub for clearing transactions in the Chinese yuan, in a step that could over the long run help Gulf oil exporting countries reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's Doha branch has been appointed as the clearing bank for yuan deals in Qatar, China's central bank said on Tuesday.
'The signing of the MoU and the appointment of the renminbi clearing bank will increase the strong ties between China and Qatar and position Qatar as the regional centre for renminbi clearing and settlement,' the Qatari central bank said‖.
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Qatar, which has some $43 billion in net foreign currency reserves and an estimated $170 billion in its sovereign wealth fund, is the biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas to China.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/04/china-offshore-yuan-idUSL4N0SU3KV20141104
At the following Reuters article, titled “China's CNPC, Qatar Petroleum planning JV in China”, January 2011, you can read about the joint investments that the state owned China National Petroleum Corporation CNPC, and the state owned Qatar Petroleum are planning in Qatar and China.
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China and Qatar will strengthen cooperation in the oil and gas industries and the top oil companies of the two countries plan joint venture projects in China, the government said on Thursday.
During a meeting between visiting Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah and Wang Yong, the head of state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), the two sides vowed more communication and joint development.
'Both sides talked about planned joint venture projects in China between China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) and Qatar Petroleum (QP),' the SASAC said on its website www.sasac.gov.cn.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/01/13/china-energy-qatar-idINTOE70C06920110113
However Qatar would not want to see the American army leaving the country, because that would make Qatar very vulnerable to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Qatar would stop being an independent player if it stopped hosting the American military bases. When it comes to buying political power abroad Qatar is the number one country, but in military terms Qatar is very weak when compared to the Saudis and the Iranians. It is one thing to buy socialists in foreign parliaments, and another to face the Saudi and the Iranian armies. The first one requires money and the second one requires guns.