Nuclear-tipped Russian drone torpedo approaching an American coastal city.
14:46 (Washington Time)
Sunday, November 10, 1996 ‘C’
United States National Combined Combat Command Center (NC4)
The Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia, U.S.A.
The U.S. Army brigadier general who was in charge of the Sunday afternoon shift at the NC4 was somewhat surprised to see Ingrid Dows walk into the National Combined Combat Command Center, or NC4 in short, wearing a set of civilian clothes.
‘’General?! You are not enjoying some time off this Sunday?’’
Ingrid responded with a sober expression and a thin smile while approaching him.
‘’Well, it is hard to have my mind at peace with all the recent past indications that the C.I.R. and Russia are possibly cooking up trouble. I just came to see if anything unusual or new popped up today. How is the situation around the World to date, General Conway?’’
‘’Mostly unchanged and quiet, General. I will get you the latest intelligence and operational reports we received since yesterday evening. I suppose that you will want to study them at your NC4 open work desk, General?’’
‘’I will but I will look at the big board first.’’ answered Ingrid before walking to the work desk reserved for her, situated a few meters from the World situation electronic board covering over half of a wall and facing it. She was still studying it when a staff officer brought a few thick files to her desk and put them down on it.
‘’Here you go, General: the latest reports from yesterday evening and today.’’
‘’Thanks, Major! Anything worthwhile in them?’’
The Air Force major hesitated for a second before replying, instantly putting Ingrid in full attention mode.
‘’Er, there were some questions raised during the night shift about a set of reconnaissance photos taken of the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet bases in and around the Kola Peninsula but the night shift supervisor, Rear Admiral Stoneman, decided that there was nothing untoward about them.’’
‘’Oh? Tell me more about those photos, Major.’’
‘’Well, one intelligence analyst at the NRO{11} thought that there was something fishy about a few pictures taken of a number of submarine bases in the region, but Admiral Stoneman and other analysts finally decided that there was nothing worth getting excited about them. However, Admiral Stoneman decided to play it safe and asked for new reconnaissance coverage to be done, just in case. We are still waiting for the results of those newer photo-reconnaissance missions but they should be in at any time now, General.’’
‘’And do you know what exactly that NRO analyst found fishy, Major?’’
‘’Uh, don’t laugh, General, but she said that, quote, many Russian submarines at quayside looked too clean, unquote.’’
While the major had expected Ingrid to shake her head at that, she instead stared hard at him while pointing her right index finger.
‘’I want to see those photo prints, Major. Are they stereoscopic pairs{12}?’’
‘’Yes, General! I will get that file right away.’’
While the staff officer was fetching the requested file, Ingrid sat down at her work desk and grabbed first the latest intelligence reports to read through them. A minute later, the Air Force major came back with a thick file and a small folding stereoscope in his hands.
‘’Here you go, General.’’
‘’Thanks! Show me the photos which concerned that NRO analyst.’’
The major nodded his head and opened the photo binder he had brought, turning the plastic protector pages until he came to a particular pair of photos showing an overhead view of a Russian naval base, with over twenty Russian submarines at quay.
‘’This is the first pair of photos that attracted her attention, General. This is the Gremikha submarine base, in the Kola Peninsula.’’
‘’Alright, let’s see what they say.’’ said Ingrid, who then took the photos out of their transparent plastic holders and put them side by side, then unfolded the small stereoscope, which looked like a pair of metal-rimmed spectacles, putting it astride the two photos. She studied the photos for a good minute before speaking up, her eyes still over the stereoscope lenses.
‘’Hum, that analyst was right: there is something different between some of the submarines at quay and the other submarines. Their decks and hulls look impeccably clean, compared to the decks of the other submarines, which show patches of rust and incrusted barnacles on their hulls. From experience, dirty hulls would be more typical of Russian submarines and ships than immaculate ones, unless they were cleaned up prior to some inspection visit by a bigwig. But then, why clean only some of the submarines and not all of them? This doesn’t make sense!’’
Taking more time to study the photos, she then notices something else that was unusual and looked at the major.
‘’Major, are you experienced at looking at overhead reconnaissance photos?’’
‘’Uh, yes, General: I once was part of a reconnaissance squadron based in Europe.’’
‘’Then, look at this particular submarine on that photo and tell me if its hull looks flatter than the others to you.’’
Intrigued, the staff officer bent over the stereoscope and looked through it for a moment before straightening up and giving Ingrid a puzzled look.
‘’You’re right, General: that submarine’s deck shows less relief than the submarine next to it, which is of the same class. I don’t understand.’’
‘’Me neither.’’ replied Ingrid, who then thought over that in silence for half a minute before she had a sudden mental flash and swore to herself, prompting a questioning look from the major.
‘’What? What is it, General?’’
‘’Those dark lines along the waterline around the hull of this submarine and of the other submarines with clean hulls. I thought at first that they were done by floating layers of oil on the surface of the water but I now realize that only the clean submarines have them. If they were oil stain lines, then all the submarines in this base would show them, but they don’t.’’
‘’And what could be the cause of that, General?’’
‘’Something that was used by us during World War 2 in order to fool the Germans about where our big landings in France would occur. Do you remember the story of how General Patton was put in charge of running a fictitious American invasion force facing the Pas-de-Calais area?’’
‘’Uh, I must confess that I don’t, General. Sorry about that.’’
‘’Well, you weren’t there, while I was, so you are excused, Major. Basically, General Patton had fake army camps created and false radio networks activated, in order to create the illusion of a huge army being assembled in Southeast England, facing the Pas-de-Calais. Those fake camps included dummy tanks, vehicles and planes made from inflatable, full-size replicas. That deception actually worked very well and our true landing sites in Southern France completely surprised the Germans. What I believe is that those ‘clean’ submarines are actually fake inflatable boats. If I am right, then a sizeable portion of the Russian submarine nuclear fleet, which we thought was in port, is in reality at sea, something that can’t mean good news for us.’’
‘’Damn! You may well be right about that, General. What should we do now?’’
‘’First, we wait to see what the NRO will find from that new run of photo-reconnaissance ordered last night. Second, I want you to review all the recent photos we have of Russian submarine bases and count how many ‘clean’ submarines are docked at quay in those bases and since when. This task is to be considered as our top priority right now.’’
‘’Understood, General. I will get our people here on it right away.’’
The staff officer had walked away some four minutes earlier when one of the encrypted telephones on Ingrid’s work desk rang, prompting her to pick up the receiver.
‘’General Dows speaking!’’
‘’General Dows, this is Colonel Welsh, at the NRO. We received a new batch of satellite pictures of the Russian naval bases in both the Kola Peninsula region and the Russian Pacific coast bases about one hour ago and have just finished our preliminary analysis of them. I am afraid that my night shift analyst was right: all those ‘clean hull’ submarines at quay show absolutely no internal thermal signatures and they must thus be considered as dummy submarines.’’
Ingrid straightened up in her chair, while her heart accelerated noticeably.
‘’And how many of those dummy subs did you count in port, Colonel?’’
‘’We counted a total of 131 such dummy subs in port, General, all of them replicas of nuclear submarines able to fire nuclear-tipped missiles via either their torpedo tubes or via dedicated launch tubes. Right now, the Russians have put to see the totality of their ballistic missile-launching submarines and of their cruise missile-launching boats. This represents a total first salvo capability of over 900 nuclear-tipped missiles, some of them armed with multiple re-entry warheads.’’
Ingrid’s blood froze in her veins on hearing that and she needed a couple of seconds before she could speak again.
‘’And what if that submarine force approaches close to the continental United States before launching its missiles? Would we then have the time to react properly to them, Colonel?’’
‘’No, General! Our bases and command installations along our coasts would go up in smoke before Washington could order a retaliatory strike via our own ballistic missiles and our strategic bombers and submarines. Even our ICBM{13} complexes in the Midwest would be erased from the map before they would have time to launch their birds. In essence, such a Russian surprise nuclear strike mounted by submarines close to our coasts would result in a resounding defeat for us and in the near-total destruction of our country.’’
Ingrid had again to pause before replying to that chilling assessment.
‘’Colonel, I want your people to review all the recent overhead photos taken of Russian naval bases and find out for how long those dummy submarines have been in position in port. Also, do a detailed count of how many submarines and of which type have been replaced at quay, plus the list of the nuclear weapons, with their ranges and yields, they could carry. This is now your top priority. I am now going to request the President’s permission to go to DEFCON 2 right now.’’
Putting down that telephone receiver, Ingrid let out a deep sigh before grabbing the receiver of the encrypted direct line linking the Pentagon with the White House. The first person to pick up at the other end was a military liaison officer on duty in the White House.
‘’White House, Captain Leavenworth speaking!’’
‘’Captain Leavenworth, this is General Ingrid Dows speaking from the Pentagon. I need to speak with the President right away. This is a case of national security emergency.’’
‘’One moment, General. I am going to trace the President right now.’’
After a few seconds wait which felt like an hour for Ingrid, the voice of President Perot came on the line.
‘’This is the President! What’s up, General?’’
‘’Mister President, I have reasons to suspect that the Russians are planning a surprise nuclear strike against us, using their nuclear submarine fleet with the goal of launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at us from positions close to our coasts, something that would basically prevent us from reacting in time to them. We are talking here about a warning time of only a few minutes at best, instead of the twenty minutes or more a conventional ground-based ballistic missile attack would normally give us. I am thus requesting your authorization to immediately go to DEFCON 2 and to order an intensive anti-submarine sweep along our coasts.’’
There was some delay on the line before Perot responded, his voice hesitant.
‘’How sure are you about this, General?’’
‘’Quite sure, Mister President. Analysis of our latest satellite photos of Russian Navy ports show that 131 of their nuclear submarines able to fire nuclear-tipped weapons have been replaced at quay by inflatable dummy submarines. And that does not count the nuclear boats which were already known to have gone to sea in the past few weeks. In essence, this means that the Russians are trying to hide from us that the totality of their nuclear submarine force has left port at a date still undetermined and may be now either on their way towards the continental United States or are already in position along our coasts. If those submarines are allowed to launch a surprise close-in strike against us, then our country will be destroyed, with little chances for us to reply or defend ourselves. We have to act now and be ready to thwart the Russians’ plan. However, I promise you that we will do the utmost in keeping our response to a use of conventional weapons only.’’
There was again a pause at the other end of the line before Perot answered Ingrid.
‘’I have full confidence in your abilities, General. You have my authorization to place our forces on DEFCON 2 and to do whatever you deem necessary to protect the United States.’’
‘’Thank you, Mister President. I will keep you appraised of any new development as it materializes. One last thing, Mister President: the Vice-President should leave Washington right now and move to the Strategic Air Command Headquarters in Omaha, which is one of the best protected installations we have and which has as well extensive strategic communications capabilities.’’
‘’A judicious counsel, General. I will tell John Glenn to leave for Omaha as soon as I hang up. Anything else?’’
‘’Now that I think of it, yes, Mister President: this must be kept strictly secret for now. If the Russians learn that we are reacting to them, they may decide to launch their missiles earlier than planned. Also, that could put their submarines on their guard and make them more difficult to find and destroy. Lastly, Mister President, I would strongly urge you to get on Air Force One as soon as possible and start flying around the country in the company of a tanker aircraft and a couple of fighter jets: if the Russians do launch a nuclear strike against us, then the whole of Washington D.C. area may soon look like the surface of the Moon.’’
‘’Another judicious counsel, General. I will heed it. Good luck to you and to our serving men and women.’’
‘’Thank you, Mister President.’’
Ingrid then hung up and immediately got on her feet to shout orders at the duty personnel in the NC4.
‘’ATTENTION TO ALL! WE ARE NOW UPGRADING TO DEFCON 2 AGAINST RUSSIA. WARN ALL COMMANDS AND UNITS THAT WE ARE EXPECTING A POSSIBLE SURPRISE NUCLEAR STRIKE AGAINST US BY RUSSIAN SUBMARINES LAUNCHING MISSILES FROM CLOSE TO OUR COASTS. DEFENSIVE PLAN ‘MEGIDDO FOUR’ IS TO BE ACTIVATED IMMEDIATELY. I WANT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE THE CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS AND ALL THE SERVICE CHIEFS ONLINE WITH ME, PLUS CINCLANT{14} AND CINCPAC{15}. HOWEVER, I ALSO WANT THIS TO STAY CLASSIFIED. NONE OF THIS IS TO FILTER TO THE PUBLIC MEDIAS.’’
Her orders had the NC4 turn into what would look like an ants’ nest that had just been kicked hard. Grabbing a message form and a clipboard, Ingrid then started writing a number of short, concise and direct messages to the various commands in charge of defending the coastal areas and waters of the continental United States. Two minutes later, one of her telephones rang. Picking it up quickly, she heard the voice of the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral David Jackson.
‘’General Dows? Admiral Jackson here! What’s up?’’
‘’Admiral, we are now going to DEFCON 2 against Russia, with Defensive Plan MEGIDDO FOUR ordered activated. We just discovered that the whole Russian nuclear submarine force left in secret its ports, leaving behind 131 inflatable decoy submarines. I suspect that the Russians plan to deliver a surprise nuclear strike on us from very short range, in order to prevent us from being able to react in time to it. I will need all our ships to start a quick but thorough anti-submarine sweep along our coasts, as per Plan MEGIDDO FOUR, from our coastline to up to 200 nautical miles at large. All Russian submarines found within those limits are to be attacked and sunk without warning. However, we will use only conventional warheads: no nuclear-tipped torpedoes or anti-submarine missiles are to be used without my express authorization. For your information, I will relay those same directives myself to CINCLANT and CINCPAC. We don’t have the time now for any red tape: Russian subs may already be in position along our coasts.’’
‘’My God! Have the Russians gone mad to try something like this? Even if their plan works, they will still have to deal with our remaining forces around the World and with our own ballistic missile submarines presently on sea patrol.’’
‘’Unfortunately, the Russians have shown themselves to be less than logical or reasonable lately, Admiral Jackson. I will now have to leave you on this. I am confident that your sailors will do their usual best in this new task. The sheer survival of the United States is now in their hands.’’
‘’You can count on the Navy, General.’’ replied Jackson, sounding shaken.
Both Jackson and Ingrid then hung up at the same time, seconds before the commander of the Atlantic Fleet called. Ingrid then repeated what she had said to Jackson, doing the same three minutes later with the commander of the Pacific Fleet. From then on, time went on like a blur for Ingrid, with questions, reports and directives flying around the NC4 in a near-continuous basis. At one time, Ingrid couldn’t help imagine what kind of chaos and critical delays the present situation would have caused if the old inter-service rivalry among the American forces would have still reigned.
15:53 (Washington Time)
Bridge of the escort frigate U.S.S. NANTUCKET
Leaving Portsmouth Harbor, New Hampshire.
Northeast Atlantic coast area of the United States
‘’Captain, we just got an immediate priority secret message from CINCLANT.’’
Commander Helen Prior, standing a few paces behind the wheelman of her frigate, took the clipboard presented to her by her signals officer and quickly read the message clipped to it. That single page message made her stiffen at once, something noticed by some of the other bridge crewmembers. Then, Prior surprised them by quickly walking to the control box of the bridge announcement system and hitting a large red button, starting the loud blare of the ‘Action Stations’ horn. Next, she spoke in the ship-wide intercom.
‘’Attention all hands, this is your Captain! We are now at DEFCON 2 against Russia. Action Stations! Action Stations! All department heads are to join me in the C.I.C.{16} for a quick command meeting.’’
Prior was about to walk out of the bridge when a thought caught her mind and she returned instead to the P.A. box.
‘’Sonar Department, this is the Captain. Go to maximum anti-submarine alert right away and advise me immediately about any unusual underwater contact. Weapons Department: I want one of the two eighteen-round ready ammunition drums of our five-inch gun to be reloaded at once and exclusively with anti-submarine depth shells. The other eighteen-round drum is to be loaded with anti-aircraft proximity shells if it is not yet so. The four-round ready drum will be filled with semi-armor-piercing high explosive shells. As well, I want live fish to be loaded into our torpedo tubes. Get to it right away!’’
Only then did Prior run out of the small bridge of the escort frigate, leaving behind sailors wondering what the hell was happening.
Nearly running down the stairs of the ship’s central communications staircase, Helen Prior first stopped at her cabin, situated two decks below the bridge, and opened her safe, which contained copies of the various military plans prepared by the Pentagon concerning possible enemy attacks or American offensive operations. Sifting through the large, sealed envelopes, she grabbed the one marked ‘MEGIDDO FOUR’ and took it out of her safe, closing and locking its steel door before ripping open the classified envelope and extracting a file marked ‘Top Secret’. Her heart, already beating fast because of the anticipation and stress from going to DEFCON 2, accelerated further as she started reading the executive summary on the top page of the document she was holding: it concerned the American military preparations and response to a possible Russian nuclear strike against the continental United States, using missile-carrying submarines launching their weapons from positions very close to the American coasts, this with the goal of achieving surprise hits on their intended targets and of cutting the response time available to the American forces. Next, she read the two-page attached annex clipped to the file which stated the role of the U.S.S. NANTUCKET in the plan. That annex included a map of the American northeast coastline and its surrounding waters, on which rectangular boxes delimited the patrol zones assigned to American warships. The one assigned to her escort frigate covered the coastal waters around Portsmouth, from the coastline to 200 nautical miles out. What truly shocked Helen was the fact that the patrol box started right at the coastline and the entrance to Portsmouth Harbor, implying that Russian submarines could come that close to the American coast. Reading quickly through the rest of the file, Helen then put it back in its envelope and left her cabin with it, going down four decks to the C.I.C. and entering the semi-dark compartment filled with work stations with glowing sensors display screens and tactical display tables. There, she found her eight most senior officers, along with the senior NCO of the ship, Senior Chief Petty Officer Fred Lomax, waiting for her around the main tactical display table. They came to attention at once at her entrance, prompting her to give a brief order.
‘’At ease, people! To make it short and sweet, we are now at DEFCON 2 against Russia and are expecting the Russians to try a close-in nuclear strike against the continental United States, using both ballistic and cruise missiles fired from close to our coasts in order to achieve surprise. They may also use heavy, nuclear-tipped torpedoes against our ports. We are to operate according to Defense Plan MEGIDDO FOUR, which I have the file for here in my hands. That plan specifies that, even if we are not yet at DEFCON1, the actual war condition, we are to fire without warning and destroy any Russian submarine found within our 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone. That is why I already gave the order for our crew to load and arm all our antisubmarine weapons and to man our sonars to maximum alert levels. Here is the map showing the patrol boxes to be manned along our Northeast coast area. Our patrol box is here, in front of Portsmouth, and extends from the coastline to 200 nautical miles out. Commander Simmons, you will enter the coordinates of that patrol box at once in our tactical computer, while Commander Corelli and Lieutenant Hansen will review and study the ocean floor relief found inside our patrol box, to determine possible waiting or launch positions that the Russians could use if they truly plan to attack us. I don’t have to underline the fact that, while most Americans believe Portsmouth is not of much importance militarily, it does contain the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, which is one of our seven yards which builds Navy submarines. As such, it does represent a valuable target for the Russians so, if they attack us, we can expect at least one Russian submarine to come into our patrol box. If the Russians do come, then don’t expect them to officially declare war to us before they start shooting. So, I will reiterate this again: if we find a Russian submarine or ship within our EEZ, then we will attack and sink it immediately, without warning. Questions?’’
‘’One question, Captain.’’ said at once Lieutenant Commander Nick Corelli, the ship’s sensors officer. ‘’Do we go passive or active for our sonar sweeps?’’
‘’Both! Our bow, mine-hunting and sidescan sonars will operate in active mode, while our towed array sonar will operate in passive mode. I also want our electronic warfare suite to keep an ear out for any communications between Russia and Russian subs and for Russian radar signals. Hopefully, our active sonar pinging will panic a Russian sub commander into either moving away or to try to launch prematurely its weapons. Commander Gore, please advise me the moment that the reloading of our weapons will be completed.’’
Her weapons officer, Lieutenant Commander James Gore, nodded his head at that.
‘’Will do, Captain!’’
‘’Good! Any other question? Then, let’s get to work!’’
16:18 (Washington Time)
Five-inch ammunition handling room, U.S.S. NANTUCKET
‘’I hate those depth shells!’’ pronounced Seaman Roman Horowitz as he strained and sweated while carrying with another sailor a 100-kilo 127mm antisubmarine depth shell between one of the ammunition hoists and the reload shell drums situated under the single multi-purpose five-inch gun turret of the frigate. His partner, a big sailor named Fernando Aguilar, smiled in response.
‘’Come on, Roman, don’t be a wimp! Think instead about the reaction of a Russian submarine captain when he will start receiving this baby on his head. Since they supposedly still don’t know about those new antisubmarine shells, this should come as a nasty surprise to them.’’
‘’But will this be powerful enough to truly hurt a Russian sub?’’
‘’A 220-pound shell packed with RDX explosive and fused with a triple proximity, hydrostatic and contact fuse? You can bet your ass that it will! Each of these babies are as powerful or more than our old depth charges we used against German submarines in World War 2. At a firing rate of one shell every two seconds, we should be able to make the Russians’ ears ring quite hard.’’
‘’Maybe, but I still hate them!’’ replied Horowitz, honoring his reputation as a chronic whiner, which was the main reason he still had not achieved the rank of Petty Officer Third Class despite his years of service.
16:33 (Washington Time)
C.I.C. of U.S.S. NANTUCKET
Twenty-five kilometers east of Portsmouth Harbor
‘’SIR, I HAVE AN UNIDENTIFIED BOTTOM TARGET!’’
Lieutenant Commander Nick Corelli nearly ran to the row of sonar watch stations and looked over the shoulder of the operator of the mine-hunting sonar, Petty Officer Second Class Abraham Kirshbaum. His eyes fixed at once on the large sonar echo displayed on the screen, dead ahead of the ship and about three kilometers away.
‘’That’s a biggie and it is also a solid object. This could definitely be a submarine lying on the bottom. What is its depth?’’
‘’About 250 feet, sir. Couldn’t it be simply a wreck? We lost a lot of merchant ships in this area during World War 2.’’
‘’It is possible but I will not take any risk with this thing, especially with the present alert state. We have anyway a way to confirm its nature. Let me talk with Commander Rubineck.’’
Going to the main tactical plot table, Corelli stopped next to the executive officer of the frigate, Lieutenant Commander Saul Rubineck.
‘’Sir, we have a big bottom object some two miles ahead of us, at a depth of 250 feet. I believe that it could well be a submarine but I would like to use our bottom observation ports to confirm visually its nature while we pass overhead with our weapons ready to fire.’’
‘’I like your idea: do it! I will get our five-inch gun and our torpedo tubes ready to react if this object indeed turns out to be a Russian submarine. Still, having an enemy sub lying in wait only twelve nautical miles from the entrance of Portsmouth Harbor…’’
As Corelli enlisted the help of one of the chief petty officers present in the C.I.C. and ordered him to go aft to the bottom observation lounge, Rubineck grabbed an intercom microphone and spoke in it.
‘’Captain to the C.I.C.! Captain to the C.I.C.!’’
Chief Petty Officer Second Class Henry Sturgis ran out of the C.I.C. and climbed up two decks before running aft, passing by the main turbine room and the diesel generator room before going down a ladder and ending in the bottom observation lounge, at the level of the Hold. That observation lounge was a recent concept for the U.S. Navy and only a few new ships, including the U.S.S. NANTUCKET, had one such lounges. While it partly served to dist