Simulation Scenario
Today is the seven-year anniversary of the day that a peace agreement was signed to end ten years of violent conflict in Froga. This small , mountainous country is proud of its ancient cities, vast timber resources, and world-class religious education system but has been ravaged by years of civil war. Each day, Frogans become more disillusioned by what the peace agreement has failed to deliver—justice, political voice, economic stability, and social welfare. Corruption undermines reform and development at every level, and factionalists and warlords are exerting their influence by taking advantage of the gaps in government leadership. An election is scheduled for next year, presenting the country with a major opportunity toward improvement or continued descent into failure. You are participating in a discussion panel to help a UN special commission come up with recommendations for steps that should be taken to improve the situation in Froga.
Conflict
Many factors fueled the ten-year conflict, but two major sources were ethnic tension and disputes over natural resources. Froga has more than eight ethnic groups, and the two largest groups are the Toki and the Yuso. Toki is the larger group of the two. Before and during the conflict, Tokis had complete control of the national government. All profits from timber extraction went to the national government and to cities and towns where Tokis are a majority, and these profits lined the pockets of Toki government officials and business owners. The Yuso and other minority groups who inhabit lands from where timber was extracted did not see any of the profits come back to their communities. Tired of the economic disparity and political marginalization, the minority groups rose up violently against the national government. Over the years, the rebel leaders became warlords, establishing control over towns and cities, using force and violent coercion to recruit members for paramilitary groups, and using any means to bring in profits to maintain their power. The Toki military also took part in illegal activities for profit, such as selling illegal timber, and mercilessly punished and even killed anyone who was suspected of sympathizing with the rebels.
Peace Agreement
To end the violent conflict with a peace agreement, a deal was made to give the top leaders on both sides protection from prosecution for their crimes and to give them leadership positions in the interim government. The peace agreement put into power an interim national government, with national elections scheduled every four years. The peace agreement required that the national government reflect the demographic make-up of the general population. One of the consequences has been that political parties tend to reflect the ethnic make-up of the country and tend to promote the narrow interests of the group rather than a broader national interest.
Problems
The interim government was seen by the public to be corrupt, ineffectual, and catering to the very people who prolonged the violent conflict, benefited financially from it, and committed violence against civilians. It was hoped that the election held three years ago would give government leaders a clear mandate for reform and legitimacy, but allegations of voter fraud and electoral violence by an “independent” election commission headed by members of the ruling Toki party dashed that hope. Currently, the national legislature has far more Toki than Yuso representatives. Six other smaller ethnic groups are also represented. The Toki party, although in a coalition with other smaller parties, nevertheless controls the most senior positions in the government, including the Prime Minister’s Office. Furthermore, the public sees the country’s government officials of all ethnicities as being solely interested in holding on to power. Hampered by corruption and disorder, the local governments have also disappointed the public. Any level of trust Frogans had for positive change is being eaten away, leaving gaps that are being fil ed by factionalists who are again polarizing populations in their bid for power. This is compounded by the government’s staggering commercial taxes, which prevent business investment and local development. The ill -trained and poorly paid police collect “taxes” and bribes and allow criminal activities to increase.
Hope
For people living in the cities and towns dispersed across Froga, a strong national government has never been their experience. These towns historically had functioned with minimal interference by the national government, but since the conflict has left their living conditions worse than before the conflict, they would like to have the support of the national government to rebuild and restore order. The rampant lawlessness has taken a toll on all Frogans. Your task is to make recommendations for how to improve governance, make headway in development in Froga, and help lay the groundwork for the second round of national and local elections that will take place next year.