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Looking again at two contestant events, you may favour a contestant to win and therefore wish to BACK before looking at any further trading possibility which may stem from your original bet. STOP. Before BACKING your favoured contestant to WIN, it might be more profitable to LAY the unfavoured contestant to LOSE.
Let me explain.For each BACK odd on one contestant there is an equivalent LAY odd on the other contestant (don’t forget we are only looking at two contestant events here). Let’s take a look at the exam ple from the chapter A 2 Horse Race.
I fancy Worcestershire to WIN and the current BACK odds are 2.02.
I could go ahead and BACK Worcestershire at these odds or ask for my own odds, but there may be an advantage to LAYING Gloucestershire at the current LAY odds.
To convert the BACK odds of 2.02 to equivalent LAY odds I apply the following formula:
LAY odd equivalent = 1 + (1÷(BACK odds 1))
= 1 + (1÷( 2.02 1))
= 1 + 0.98
= 1.98
In this case there is NO advantage to LAYING the unfavoured contestant~ the LAY odds of 1.99 are higher than the conversion of 1.98
Let’s imagine that the LAY odds for Gloucestershire are 1.98 .
I could then BACK Worcestershire or LAY Gloucestershire and achieve the same profit. Which path to take would depend on what trade, if any, I had in mind.
Alternatively, if I LAY Gloucestershire at 1.98 with an amount equal to the profit I would have made from a BACK bet i.e. £51, I will make the same profit if my prediction of Worcestershire Winning is correct.
If Worcestershire LOSE I will lose £50 if I BACK them.
If Worcestershire LOSE I will have to pay out £50 if I LAY Gloucestershire (1.98 less 1 multi plied by £51). There may be a few pence difference through rounding.
Let’s imagine the LAY odds for Gloucestershire are 1.95
If Worcestershire LOSE I will lose £50 if I BACK Worcestershire.
If Worcestershire LOSE I have to pay out £48.45 if I LAY Gloucestershire (1.95 less 1 multi plied by £51). There may be a few pence difference through rounding
You may only save a few pence by LAYING instead of BACKING, or vice versa, but remember the saying :Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves.
The overall rule is therefore:
· If you intend to BACK a contestant you will do better if the LAY odds on the other con testant are LOWER than the equivalent CONVERTED BACK ODDS
· If you intend to LAY a contestant you will do better if the BACK odds on the other con testant are HIGHER than the equivalent CONVERTED LAY ODDS