This is a strategy for readers with a Machiavellian disposition. It is primarily intended for mar kets which are relatively quiet, or for those markets which have just opened and have not yet become “mature”.
Strategy:
There is a phenomenon which I have recently experienced on Betfair which I sometimes find very irritating, but which can be used to move prices in your favour and which can be done for very little risk.
To begin with, let’s imagine some different scenarios.
First, imagine you have decided to BACK XYZ to WIN with odds of (say) 2.62. The bet is un matched, but it is the cheapest, and possibly the only price available to layers.
Imagine that within a couple of minutes of you placing your bet that the price closes to:
Back Lay XYZ 2.24 2.60 2.62 80 100
Your unmatched bet of 2.62 is no longer the cheapest price available to layers someone has undercut your price.
If your bet is £100 and the other is for similar or less, and you believe that the market is likely to become quite active, then that is simply the nature of exchanges.
You now have the choice of:
· Leaving your bet as it is
· Joining the other backer at his price
· Dropping your price to 2.58 to remain the cheapest backer
If you do opt for the final of these options then be prepared for an “auction”. You may find the other backer drops his price to 2.56 to remain the cheapest and then you will have to decide whether you want to chase the price down or remain where you are. If you do decide to chase the price then you should have a clear idea what the lowest price is at which you are willing to BACK and to stop when you get there.
Imagine now, that your bet is just a small one. Let’s say that it is £2 the smallest Betfair will accept and you do the same as before and BACK XYZ at 2.62. This time your bet is the only one available to layers. Back Lay
Imagine also that, as before, within two minutes of your bet appearing in the LAY box a bet appears at 2.60 for £80. This time the amount is a lot more that yours.
LayBack
Now you are at the back of the queue and if, apart from the £80 bet, there are only small “players” around, it will seem like the chances of getting your bet matched are significantly af fected. This time it is likely that you may feel that the only way to have a chance of getting your bet matched is to drop your price to 2.58.
I can understand why a BACKER will want to make himself the cheapest when there is a mod erate to large amount of money on the “active” lay button (the pink button). But, to my mind, it is nonsense to put up an £80 (or even a £20) bet at a lower price (2.60), when all that is available to layers is £2. It would seem to me to be far more sensible to join in at 2.62 knowing that only the £2 is in the way of getting the bet matched.
Offering lower odds achieves virtually nothing, except to suggest a lack of understanding of how markets work forcing the price down for no reason other than to be cheapest, no matter how small the competing bets, simply reduces potential profits~ it achieves no real advantage and all it does is benefit the layers. The seeming mindlessness of the behaviour leads me to wonder if this is human beings putting their minds in neutral or “bots” (software) programmed to ensure that the backer using such software stays “on the offer” (cheapest price available to layers).
Whether this is the behaviour of mindless humans, or bots, for those who wish to use it the re sult is that the behaviour gives an opportunity to move the odds in your favour and for very little risk.
Keeping with the same scenario as before, imagine that the odds for XYZ are still 2.24 2.62 but this time you want to LAY XYZ for £50 at somewhere between 2.46 and 2.54. Imagine also that from your experience in this particular market you are aware that if you simply “putup” your odds at 2.46 the most likely effect will be that, apart from the price becoming 2.46 2.62, another layer will suddenly appear and the price will close forcing you to either drop out, miss your odds being the best available to backers, or forcing you to chase the price (i.e. just as be fore). You may, therefore, simply wish to watch the price until the odds you want become avail able i.e. the price available to layers drops to 2.54 or below.
However, if you think the price is more likely to drift, rather than shorten, you may want to “assist” the price to move in the direction you want. If there is evidence that any price you put up will be leapfrogged, then a simple strategy, using the prices we used before, would be to BACK XYZ for £2 at 2.60. When the lower price of 2.58 appears, reduce your price to 2.56~ when the next price of 2.54 appears, reduce your price to 2.52 and keep going until the backer stops lowering his price. Then simply “take out” the backer by LAYING at the available price, remembering to cancel the £2 BACK at the same time.
I admit that this may seem like a “sneaky” strategy, but anyone betting on Betfair should be aware that they are swimming in shark infested waters and that there are professionals who will use much sneakier techniques than this to make a profit.