To PROFIT from this method you MUST be able to pick a horse that you think will WIN a race and where you think LAY ODDS will shorten to a lower level than the BACK ODDS at which you take your BACK BET.
Let’s work through an example. (I shall be overwriting a lot of the figures on the Betfair screenshots with hypothetical figures to demonstrate the principles involved. Some of the fig ures may be exaggerated to show a point).
The BACK BET is placed early in the day to give the LAY ODDS time to move in my favour. (This is my preference~ you may decide to start trading at a different time).The Odds are reasonable at this time, and I think the LAY ODDS will move in my favour, so I’m going to BACK to WIN using the displayed Odds, but I’m only going to take £20 of the £28 on offer. I SUBMIT and CONFIRM my bet and the bet is matched.
Pella 10.5 £190 You are backing PellaAmount will change to £8
once my bet is matched and
provided noone else is
posting at the same time as
me.
(Original £28 less my Stake of
£20)
As things stand, I am left with one of the following possibilities: · Pella WINS the race and I make a PROFIT of £190. · Pella LOSES the race and I lose my Stake Money of £20 What I am looking for now is for the LAY ODDS against Pella to shorten (comein) so that I can LAY the decreased Odds to produce a NO LOSE situation if he LOSES and a PROFIT situation if he WINS. Obviously, the LAY ODDS will have to shorten to a level which will generate my required profit. Once I know what the LAY ODDS and Stake need to be, I can ask for them and wait to see if they are matched. Closer to the event I will check to see if anyone has matched my LAY BET, and if there have not been any takers, I may decide to lower by Profit Target.
There may be times when it is impossible to place a LAY BET to produce a PROFIT and NO LOSE situation because the LAY ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave the original BACK BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will WIN. Alternatively, if there is no sign of the LAY ODDS falling below the original BACK ODDS as the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to tradeout of your BACK BET by placing a LAY BET at current odds, and take a small loss. It is also possible to monitor the odds as the race is in progress (inrunning). They change very quickly, and the odds and stake you require may appear.
What do the LAY ODDS and Stake need to be to produce a PROFIT/NO LOSE situation?Take a look at the table below:
The table has been filled in with known facts. I have a BACK BET which is currently active and I now wish to place a LAY BET to trade myself into a PROFIT or a NO LOSE situation. I know that if I leave things as they are and Pella WINS I will make a profit of £190. On the other hand, if Pella LOSES, I will have lost my £20 stake. Therefore, to trade myself into a PROFIT or a NO LOSE position I need to establish what the LAY ODDS and Stake need to be to produce my Target.
CURRENT BET Odds Stake Potential Potential Profit Payout £ £ £ BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NILI’m going to set my Profit Target at £20. To produce a NO LOSE situation if the horse LOSES I need my LAY BET Stake to be the same as my BACK BET Stake
This is £20.00
I can enter this £20.00 into my table in the Stake and Potential Profit for LAYING.
After setting my Profit Target at £20.00, I now know that my Potential Payout from a LAY BET can be no more than £170.00 (Potential Profit from BACK BET of £190.00 less Profit Target of £20.00).
I can enter this £170.00 into my table in the Potential Payout for LAYING.
The only thing left to do now, is to calculate the LAY ODDS I will be asking for.
This is simply a matter of dividing the Potential Payout by the Stake, and adding one.
(Don’t forget European Decimal Odds include the Stake)
RACE RESULT