NIL
Backing out of my original LAY BET by placing a BACK BET at higher required odds and appropriate Stake puts me into a “No Lose” situation.
If Sunset Mirage WINS , as I hoped he would, I will have to payout £180.00 to the per son who has placed a bet with me, but on the otherhand I will make a profit of £190.00 from my BACK BET—a net result of £10.00 Profit.
If Sunset Mirage LOSES, then I keep the £20.00 Stake Money which someone has bet with me. This £20.00, less the £20.00 I staked on Sunset Mirage to WIN, gives me a net profit of £NIL
Please note that throughout this manual any commission deducted by Betting Exchanges is ignored.
Scenario 7
BACK first, then determine what Guaranteed Profit, if any, is achievable using the cur rently displayed LAY ODDS
To PROFIT from this method you MUST be able to pick a horse which you think will have its LAY ODDS shorten compared to the BACK ODDS at which you take your BACK BET. After that you won’t care which horse wins or which horses lose.
Let’s work through an example. (I shall be overwriting a lot of the figures on the Betfair screenshots with hypothetical figures to demonstrate the principles involved. Some of the figures may be exaggerated to show a point).
The BACK BET is placed early in the day to give the LAY ODDS time to move in my favour. (This is my preference~ you may decide to start trading at a different time).The Odds are reasonable at this time, and I think the LAY ODDS will move in my favour, so I’m going to BACK to WIN using the displayed Odds, but I’m only going to take £20 of the £28 on offer. I SUBMIT and CONFIRM my bet and the bet is matched.
Pella 10.5 £190 You are backing PellaAmount will change to £8
once my bet is matched and
provided noone is posting at
the same time as me.
(Original £28 less Backer’s
Stake of £20)
As things stand, I am left with one of the following possibilities: · Pella WINS the race and I make a PROFIT of £190. · Pella LOSES the race and I lose my Stake Money of £20 What I am looking for now is for the LAY ODDS against Pella to shorten (comein) so that I can LAY the decreased Odds to produce a “Guaranteed Profit ” situation no matter what the result of the race turns out to be. Obviously, the LAY ODDS will have to shorten to a level which will generate my required profit. I intend to monitor the LAY ODDS and take “depth gauge” readings on a regular basis and calculate how much profit, if any, I can make. At a point where I don’t think LAY ODDS will move any more in my favour I can determine if a satisfactory profit is achievable.
There may be times when it is impossible to place a LAY BET to produce a PROFIT situation because the LAY ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave the original BACK BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will WIN. Alternatively, if there is no sign of the LAY ODDS falling below the original BACK ODDS, as the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to tradeout of your BACK BET by placing a LAY BET at current odds, and take a small loss.
It is also possible to monitor the odds as the race is in progress (inrunning). They change very quickly, and the odds and stake you require may appear.
Imagine that LAY ODDS have dropped to 7.50
Take a look at the table below:
The table has been filled in with known facts. I have a BACK BET which is currently active and I now wish to place a LAY BET to trade myself into a “Guaranteed Profit” situation. I know that if I leave things as they are and Pella WINS I will make a profit of £190. On the other hand, if Pella LOSES, I will have lost my £20 stake.
Therefore, to trade myself into a “Guaranteed Profit” situation, I need to establish what the LAY Stake needs to be.CURRENT BET Odds Stake Potential Potential Profit Payout £ £ £ BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL
I can now calculate the Stake required to give me the guaranteed profit, if any, I can achieve using the current LAY ODDS for Pella.
Lay Stake= (Back Stake÷(Lay Odds÷Back Odds))
= ( £20.00 ÷( 7.50 ÷ 10.50 ))
= £28.00
Odds Stake Potential Potential Profit Payout £ £ £ CURRENT BET BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL
Potential Payout from my LAY BET would be £182.00 (Odds of 7.50 less 1 multiplied by LAY Stake of £28.00)
RACE RESULT Pella Winnings from