£8.00
Backing out of my original BACK BET by placing a LAY BET at odds of 7.50 and a Stake of £28.00 puts me into a “Guaranteed Profit ” situation. I don’t care what the re sult of the race turns out to be.
If Pella WINS I will have to payout £182.00 to the person who has placed a bet with me, but on the otherhand, I will make a profit of £190.00 from my BACK BET—a net result of £8.00 Profit.
If Pella LOSES then I keep the £28.00 Stake Money which someone has bet with me. This £28.00, less the £20.00 I staked on Pella to WIN, gives me a net profit of £8.00
Scenario 8
LAY first, then determine what Guaranteed Profit, if any, is achievable using the cur rently displayed BACK Odds
To PROFIT from this method you MUST be able to pick a horse which you think will have its BACK ODDS increase compared to the LAY ODDS at which you take your LAY BET. After that you won’t care which horse wins or which horses lose.
Let’s work through an example. (I shall be overwriting a lot of the figures on the Betfair screenshots with hypothetical figures to demonstrate the principles involved. Some of the figures may be exaggerated to show a point).
The LAY BET is placed early in the day to give the BACK ODDS time to move in my favour. (This is my preference~ you may decide to start trading at a different time).The Odds are reasonable at this time, and I think the BACK ODDS will move in my favour, so I’m going to LAY to LOSE using the displayed Odds, but I’m only going to take £20 of the £40 on offer. I SUBMIT and CONFIRM my bet and the bet is matched.
Sunset Mirage 10 £180 10
You are betting against Sunset Mirage
Amount will change to £20
once my bet is matched and
provided noone is posting at
the same time as me.
(Original £40 less Backer’s
Stake of £20)
As things stand, I am left with one of the following possibilities:
·
Sunset Mirage LOSES the race and I keep the Backer’s Stake of £20 as PROFIT. ·
Sunset Mirage WINS the race and I have to pay the Backer £180 (the Backer keeps his
Stake Money) A loss to me of £180
What I am looking for now is for the BACK ODDS against Sunset Mirage to increase (goout) so that I can BACK the increased Odds to produce a “Guaranteed Profit ” situation no matter what the result of the race turns out to be. Obviously, the BACK ODDS will have to shorten to a level which will generate my profit. I intend to monitor the BACK ODDS and take “depth gauge” readings on a regular basis and calculate how much profit, if any, I can make. At a point where I don’t think BACK ODDS will move any more in my favour I can determine if a satis factory profit is achievable.
There may be times when it is impossible to place a BACK BET to produce a PROFIT situation because the BACK ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave the original LAY BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will LOSE. Alternatively, if there is no sign of the BACK ODDS increasing above the original LAY ODDS, as the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to tradeout of your LAY BET by placing a BACK BET at current odds, and take a small loss.
It is also possible to monitor the odds as the race is in progress (inrunning). They change very quickly, and the odds and stake you require may appear.
Imagine that BACK Odds have increased to 14.00
Take a look at the table below:
The table has been filled in with known facts. I have a LAY BET which is currently active and I now wish to place a BACK BET to trade myself into a “Guaranteed Profit” situation. I know that if I leave things as they are and Sunset Mirage LOSES I will make a profit of £20. On the other hand, if Sunset Mirage WINS, I will have to payout £180 to the person who has placed a bet with me.
CURRENT BET LAY Odds Stake Potential Potential Profit Payout £ £ £ 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00
I can now calculate the Stake required to give me the guaranteed profit, if any, I can achieve using the current BACK ODDS for Pella.
Back Stake= (Lay Stake÷(Back Odds÷Lay Odds))
= ( 20.00 ÷ ( 14.00 ÷ 10.00 ))
= £14. 29
Odds Stake Potential Potential Profit Payout £ £ £ CURRENT BET LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00
Potential Profit from my BACK Bet would be £185.77 (Odds of 14.00 less 1 multiplied by BACK Stake of £14.29)
RACE RESULTSunset Mirage WINS