Firms that use technology to disrupt markets rather
Competing futures
than simply providing compelling solutions can create
Ever since William Gibson’s novel Neuromancer gave significant systemic problems. Many regulations are
birth to the cyberpunk movement, a digital future in which enacted for social rather than economic reasons. For
we’re jacked into the global network has been the popular example, many governments provide pensioners with
image. It’s a libertarian ideal in which nation states have taxi vouchers that regulations compel taxis to accept.
little meaning as technology evolves to the point that we These help the elderly stay mobile and retain their
can more or less do without them.
independence without the need to continue driving.
There are good reasons to rethink the foundations on
Less time has been invested in trying to understand
which our industries are based, but we need to be
how society might also shape the future of money. We
careful that the new foundations are as equitable as the must accept that some of the short-term but large shifts old and that they can act as the pillars of the new
predicted will become true. However, no technology
society.
has survived contact with society unscathed. While
elements of a technology-driven vision may really
Many new FinTech solutions expose consumers and
happen, we need to explore alternative scenarios.
businesses to risks they have no experience in
quantifying or managing. There’s also the chance of
We need to consider both social and technological
collateral damage as firms and individuals experiment
change. To do this, we explore four possible
outside the light of the regulator or established
scenarios that cover the big and small changes for
products and services. Projects funded through
both the social and technological factors.
platforms such as KickStarter, and which subsequently
fail, foreshadow problems with crowdfunded equity,
while Bitcoin’s high volatility creates currency risks that few are equipped to manage. The stakes are higher
when people’s retirement savings are in the mix.
There is more than enough opportunity for all,
but disruption in the finance sector is something that needs to be managed carefully. Banking disruption over the decades – from sub-prime loans through to credit
default swaps – has caused big problems for those least able to cope. As this is a social change, it will have winners and losers. However, we can make navigating
between the various possible futures that technology
enables an active process, working to shape the one we want rather than simply being victims of change.
The Future of Exchanging Value Cryptocurrencies and the trust economy 21
Figure 4: Four scenarios for the future
Paradigm
change
New equilibrium
Transformation
The system reaches a balance
The system is discarded in
among competing forces that is
favour of a new one with a
significantly different from the
new set of rules.
current balance. There can be
significant change, but it is
New technology
within the framework of the
New system
current system.
Incremental technology
New system
Social
change
Current trends continue
Collapse
The system moves forward along
The system falls apart under
its current trajectory. It is ‘present
the weight of ‘negative’ driving
trends and continued’, usual y
forces and typical y reverts back
considered most likely to happen.
to an earlier form.
Incremental technology
New technology
Incremental system
Incremental system
Incremental
change
Incremental change
Paradigm change
Technological change
