FORETELL
What to Foretell?
To foretell is to possess foreknowledge and to share it. This operator focuses on one of
my central premises in constructing the MindMap – which I call “an index of the whole of human knowledge”. Both predicting and forecasting have evolved to the state where they give averages and alternatives rather than projective certainty – so does that mean that we can’t really be definitive about the future? That’s not very re-assuring, but can we do anything about it? Can we foretell anything? You bet your life we can!
Why to Foretell?
Humans live their lives by not only living “in the moment” but by anticipating AND remembering. What we learn is only useful if we can remember it. Life only has a point if we can look forward to goals and objectives. That is the purpose of foretelling. So, every time you wonder, think about, or plan “what you’ll do next”, you will be basing that on foretelling, to one extend or another. The more you want to accomplish…..
When to Foretell?
Whenever there is a decision, choice, or alternative facing you – in other words, most of the time. It’s when you ignore the implications or consequences of what you are about to do (or not do), that you leave yourself open to the vulnerability of not being prepared. Think about it! This is the dilemma: the more details you want about the future, the less successful your foretelling will be. Since less is more, settle for what you can get.
Whether to Foretell?
Do you really want to know? Knowledge is both empowering and burdening – anyone who doesn’t recognize this situation as just “two sides of the same coin” doesn’t know much. Sadly, that’s most people. Can you live with what you might find out? Do you want to find out? On the other hand, what happens when you find out something you never anticipated but have to deal with? Whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
How to Foretell?
The Laws of Forecasting set a context for the methods of foretelling. Forecasting is short-sighted, the reason being that the facts of many situations change from day to day. Methodology is over-rated, because reality is too complex to be captured by rules. Foresight requires insight, but most approaches aren’t very insightful. Only at the conceptual level can one discern enough systemic stability to substantiate prescience.
References
William Ascher & William Overhold
STRATEGIC PLANNING AND FORECASTING
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1983