Erdogan’s Efforts to Unite the Muslim World
A very interesting article from Al Monitor, about the efforts of the Turkish President Tayip Erdogan to unite the Muslim World and become its leader. And about whether the leaders of the Muslim World can accept Erdogan as their leader. See Al Monitor παρακάτω “Will Islamic world accept Turkey’s leadership?”, April 2016.
The article refers to the recent summit of the Muslim countries in Turkey (Organization of Islamic Cooperation OIC). Al Monitor mentions that the socialist leader of Egypt Abdel Sisi was absent, together with the King of Jordan. I must say that both the Egyptian socialists and the King of Jordan are very upset with the Turkish Islamists, because they support in Egypt and Jordan the Islamist socialist organization Muslim Brotherhood.
Recently the Jordanian King accused the Turkish President of sending terrorists to Europe on purpose, and also said that the Europeans are afraid of Erdogan. See Al Monitor “Are Amman-Ankara ties in crisis”?, April 2016. See also Independent “Turkey is deliberately 'unleashing' Isis terrorists into Europe, says Jordan's King Abdullah”, March 2016. See also the Gatestone Institute “Turkey: Muslim Brothers' Protector”, June 2015.
In the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Erdogan had the Saudi King first at his right, and fourth to his left was the Iranian President. Erdogan wanted to show how the relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have improved, and also that in the Saudi-Iranian conflict Turkey favors the Saudis. I must say that the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia have improved after King Salman became King in January 2015, because he accepted to relax the stance followed by his predecessor against the Muslim Brotherhood. He also pledged billions of Saudi investments in Turkey. See Al Monitor “Saudi Arabia turns to Turkey”, February 2016 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-visit-saudi-arabia-economy-political-partnership.html
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However the Turkish President also said that his religion is Islam, and not Sunnitism or Shiitism, in an effort to unite Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the main powers of Shiite and Sunni Islam respectively.
For Turkey it would be great if Iran and Saudi Arabia could reach a détente, or even manage to cooperate. The Turks and the Qataris are hoping that if the Saudis and the Iranians reach an agreement, it would be much easier for them to send the oil and gas to Turkey, and from there to Europe. Turkey wants to reduce her dependence on Russian gas, and also to send the oil and gas of the Middle East and the Caspian Sea to Europe. That would mean billions in revenues for Turkey, and also an increased geopolitical role. The opposite would be true for Russia. The largest gas field of the world i.e. the South Pars/North Fields, lies in the Persian Gulf, and it is shared by Iran and Qatar. A bit to the north, in Turkmenistan, lies the second largest gas field in the world, the Galkynysh.
Map 1South Pars/ North Fields Gas Field
A rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, would be very good for Turkey and Qatar, but it would be a disaster for Russia, because it would open the corridor Middle East-Turkey-Europe. If Iraq was to be included in this kind of deal things for Russia would become even worse. With peace between the Sunnis and the Shiites of the Middle East, it would be much harder for the Russians to intervene in the Middle East.
But it is not as easy as it seems for the Saudis and the Iranians to reach a détente, even though it would be a blessing for the Turkish Islamists. The Turks and the Iranians have been supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and the Iranians are also supporting the Shiite minority of Saudi Arabia too. The idea is that if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over Saudi Arabia and Jordan, it will be much easier for Turkey to control these countries, and it would be much easier for Iran and Saudi Arabia to cooperate, since the Muslim Brotherhood is sponsored by Turkey and Iran.
Iran is already an Islamic Republic, and the Turkish Islamists are closing the media and destroying the opposition in Turkey, and they are transforming Turkey to an Islamic republic too. If the Saudi members of the Muslim Brotherhood were to rise in Saudi Arabia, the three main players of the Persian Gulf would all be Islamic republics.
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The Turkish efforts to overturn the family of Saud in Saudi Arabia are enhanced by the animosity that has been developing between Saudi Arabia and United States after the terrorist attacks at the Twin Towers (9/11). The Americans do not blame for the attack the then Saudi King, but all the terrorists were Saudis, and this was definitely a Saudi attack, even though it was also supported by Iran, Afghanistan, and maybe from Iraq too. Recently the American courts fined Iran with 10.5 billion dollars for its support to the Saudis who carried out the attack. See Bloomberg “Iran Told to Pay $10.5 Billion to Sept. 11 Kin, Insurers”, March 2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/iran-told-to-pay-10-5-billion-to-sept-11-kin-insurers
The Congress is also thinking about investigating the role of Saudi Arabia in the attack. See CNN “Saudis warn of economic reprisals if Congress passes 9/11 bill”, April 2016 http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/16/politics/saudi-arabia-government-9-11-congress-bill/
The Americans never accused the then government of Saudi Arabia of organizing the 9/11 attack, but the present Saudi King, King Salman, was funding charity organizations that have been associated with Al Qaeda. That was of course before he became King of Saudi Arabia, and I guess it has a lot to do with the war within the Saudi Royal family. See Foreign Policy “King Salman’s Shady History”, January 2015 http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/27/king-salmans-shady-history-saudi-arabia-jihadi-ties/
I guess that after the Saudi King promised to be more relaxed towards the Muslim Brotherhood branch of Saudi Arabia i.e. Erdogan’s friends, and all the Saudi investments he pledged for Turkey, Turkey will relax her stance towards the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia.
However, even if at some point the Turks and the Iranians manage to bring the Muslim Brotherhood in power in Saudi Arabia, it won’t be a piece of cake for an agreement to be reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Remember that before the rise of the Iranian Islamists in 1979, Iran was the main US ally in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia was also a US ally. However the two countries were still killing each other for their exports. And it is not only the Saudis and the Iranians. There is also Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Syria, and everybody is looking after his own interests.
But even if we assume that the Saudis and the Iranians reach an agreement, in order to send oil and gas to Europe through Turkey, thus overcoming Russia, what will happen with Asia? The Arabs and the Iranians are mainly exporting to Asia. The only common interest they have in Asia is to block the gas of Turkmenistan and the oil of Kazakhstan from reaching India and the Indian Ocean. But the Iranians have a clear advantage over the Saudis when it comes to India and China, due to the Iran-Pakistan corridor. Maybe the Iranians and the Qataris could jointly export gas from the South Pars/North Fields to China and India, but is there to unite Iran and Saudi Arabia?
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China could attempt to sort things out for the Iranians and the Saudis, because it is mainly China that imports oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. The United States have increased their oil and gas production from shale rock, and they import huge quantities from Canada and Mexico, both countries very rich in shale rock.
China could say something like “I will buy that much from you, that much from you and you and you”, in an effort to keep everybody happy. That was the point of the recent visits of the Chinese President to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran. See Reuters “China's Xi to visit Saudi, Iran in new diplomacy push” January 2016. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-middleeast-idUKKCN0UT12O
See also “Can China Afford to Finish the War in the Middle East”? https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/can-china-afford-to-finish-the-war-in-the-middle-east/
I said that Iran has an advantage for Europe and Asia, and therefore I must also say that Saudi Arabia has an advantage over Africa. But the rich customers are in Europe and Asia, and not in Africa. Recently Egypt returned to Saudi Arabia two islands that Saudi Arabia had surrendered to Egypt in 1950, in order for Egypt to block the Eilat-Ashkelon oil pipeline that was promoted by Iran and Israel, and which was constructed in 1968, after the 1967 war between Egypt and Israel.
The Saudis will construct a bridge that will pass from these two islands, and will for the first time connect the Arabian Peninsula with the Sinai Peninsula. Moreover Sudan recently changed sides and from an Iranian ally it became a Saudi ally. Eritrea and Djibouti also pledged their support to Saudi Arabia.Iran is claiming Yemen through the current war, in order to connect to Africa, and also to be able to block the Saudi exports to Asia. The Saudis have constructed the Petropipeline to export from the Red Sea their oil, which is located near the Persian Gulf. Iran threatens to block the Straits of Hormuz in case of a war with Saudi Arabia.
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http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/images/map-pipelines-2011.jpg
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Another issue related with all the above is that if there is a Saudi-Iranian agreement, in order to send gas and oil to Europe through Turkey, they will deeply “hurt” the Russian economic exports to Europe. And if the Iranians and the Saudis hurt the Russian interests, and at the same time they have very good relations with China, there will be problems between China and Russia. And there are already big problems between Russia and China. See “Russia VS China”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/russia-vs-china/
Also remember that the Iranian Islamists supported the rise of the Turkish Islamists to power, because they thought the Tukish Kemalists were too pro-American and too pro-West. The Iranian Islamists believed that the rise of the Turkish Islamists would enhance the Iranian-Turkish cooperation. However we saw that the rise of the Islamists in Turkey led to the Turkish-Iranian war in Syria. Because the priority of the Turkish Kemalist was to keep the Kurdistan of Turkey quiet, and they were willing to sacrifice Turkish influence in the Middle East. The current doctrine of Neo-Ottomanism promoted by Erdogan and Davutoglu is hurting the Russian and Iranian interests, and if these two countries are not happy with the Turkish energy policy they will support the PKK in Turkey.
The terrorists of the PKK were traditionally supported by Syria, due to the problematic Syrian-Turkish relations, but Syria is one thing, and Russia and Iran are another.
Also remember that in the 70s the socialists of Iraq and Syria were both Russian allies, and they wanted to become one country, in order to export Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean Sea. That was at a time the Soviets were not exporting oil and gas to NATO members. But in the end the Syrian and Iraqi socialists became bitter rivals, and after the rise of the Iranian Islamists in power, the Syrians became Iranian allies.
What I am trying to say is that the Turks might want to see a Saudi-Iranian détente, in order to export their oil and gas to Europe, but forming alliances is not a simple task. On the other hand a civil war in Saudi Arabia would be perfect for Iran. Actually I think that for Iran a civil war in Saudi Arabia would be much better than a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Also remember that the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea and West Siberia hold approximately 2/3 of the global oil and gas reserves, and the toughest international terrorists are running these countries i.e. see “the resource curse”, and “American Politics in the Age of Oil”.
Map 3 Persian Gulf-Caspian Sea-West Siberia
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Also remember that Saudi Arabia has other options too. Saudi Arabia has the option to make a deal with Russia against Iran. Saudi Arabia consumes internally her natural gas production, and she is not as rich in natural gas as Iran and Qatar. Therefore Saudi Arabia is much less interested in the Qatar-Iran-Turkey gas pipeline, and a lot more interested for her oil exports.
Therefore the Saudis have the option to make a deal with Russia, in order for Russia to block Iran in Syria. Then Saudi Arabia and Russia can cooperate as an oil cartel in order to increase oil prices. Therefore it is much easier for the Saudis and the Jordanians to negotiate with the Russians in Syria, than it is for Turkey and Qatar. See “Russia, Saudi Arabia reach consensus on oil output freeze - Ifax cites diplomatic source”, April 2016 http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-opec-saudi-russia-idUKKCN0X91QL
Also see “Vladimir Putin asked Bashar al-Assad to step down”, January 2016 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/735b4746-c01f-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html
A Saudi-Russian agreement except of decreasing output and increasing prices would also mean that the Saudis would focus on their exports in Asia, and the Russians would focus in Europe. It would also mean that Russia would protect Saudi Arabia from Iran. Russia could even provide nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, now that Pakistan is becoming a bit neutral between Iran and Saudi Arabia, due to the Iran-Pakistan-China economic corridor. Pakistan is the only Muslim country that is a nuclear power. Russia is already cooperating with Saudi Arabia on nuclear energy. See Reuters “Saudi Arabia, Russia sign nuclear power cooperation deal”, June 2015 http://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-russia-nuclear-idUSL5N0Z516320150619
See also BBC “Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan”, November 2013 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24823846
See also the Financial Times “Saudi Arabia and Russia ministers agree oil production freeze”, February 2016. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da44fb1c-d485-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html
On the other hand, Turkey too has the option to cooperate with Russia with the Turk Stream (Russia-Black Sea-Turkey-Europe), and block Iran, in order to become for Russia an new Ukraine and earn transit fees. But the Turks want to buy the Russian gas in low prices and negotiate it themselves with the potential buyers, while the Russians want to make the negotiations themselves, and simply allow Turkey to earn transit fees, like they were doing with Ukraine.
But let me go back to the Al Monitor article. The article also says that at the summit of the Organization of the Islamic Council Erdogan attacked the West, and said that the Muslim World must cooperate in order to promote its interests, because the Westerners only care about the oil of the Muslim World. He also said that the Europeans and the Americans make a big fuss about the terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris, but they don’t care about the terrorist attacks in Turkey. He was referring to the support of the West to the Kurds of Syria, because the Kurds of Syria cooperate with the Kurds of the PKK in Turkey. See also “Erdogan and Syria”. https://iakal.wordpress.com/2016/03/28/erdogan-and-isis/
At the end the Al Monitor articles says that it is not very easy for the Muslim World to cooperate, and it says it is doubtful whether the leaders of the Muslim World will accept Erdogan as their leader.
Picture Turkish Imports of Natural Gas
Picture Turkish Imports of Crude Oil
