The Geopolitics of Energy & Terrorism Part 7 by Iakovos Alhadeff - HTML preview

Articles

For the Al Monitor article see

“Will Islamic world accept Turkey’s leadership?”, April 2016

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/turkey-erdogan-oic-summit-pitch-for-islamic-leadership.html

“Turkey is deliberately 'unleashing' Isis terrorists into Europe, says Jordan's King Abdullah”, March 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/king-of-jordan-abdullah-says-turkey-isis-terrorists-and-unleashing-them-europe-erdogan-a6954841.html

“Are Amman-Ankara ties in crisis”?, April 2016

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Although Erdogan has been criticized for launching verbal tirades against regional leaders, it has been Jordan’s monarch who has repeatedly attacked the Turkish president. According to a leak reported March 25 in Middle East Eye, Abdullah told US congressional officials during a January visit to Washington, “The fact that terrorists are going to Europe is part of Turkish policy and Turkey keeps on getting a slap on the hand, but they are let off the hook.” Asked whether the Islamic State (IS) was exporting oil to Ankara, Abdullah responded, “Absolutely.” Abdullah’s accusation that Ankara is working with IS likely does not sit well with Erdogan, as Turkey has suffered several horrific attacks by IS of late.

An informed source, who requested anonymity for lack of authorization to speak with the press, told Al-Monitor that ties between Amman and Ankara had reached a “crisis.” Given that the king’s quotes were published right before Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was scheduled to visit Jordan on March 27, the source wondered whether the timing of the leak had been intentional, to try to sabotage the visit, which had required weeks of planning.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/jordanian-monarch-international-regional-ties-turkish.html

“Turkey: Muslim Brothers' Protector”, June 2015

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5926/turkey-muslim-brotherhood

“Saudi Arabia extends hand to Muslim Brotherhood”, March 2016

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/blogs/politics/17773-saudi-arabia-extends-hand-to-muslim-brotherhood

“Saudi Arabia and Russia ministers agree oil production freeze”, February 2016

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da44fb1c-d485-11e5-8887-98e7feb46f27.html

“Why Saudi Arabia decided to reclaim its islands from Egypt now”

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A lot of shock and disgruntlement has been expressed regarding the deal reached between Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi following the king's visit to Egypt.

King Salman's visit ended with him cashing in on years of Saudi funding for the Egyptian state and economy, as well as energy subsidies, and leaving with his father’s old Red Sea islands back under the authority of the Saudi state as well as a final agreement to build the long-discussed but never constructed Saudi-Egypt bridge.

Many Egyptian opposition groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have complained that Sisi has unconstitutionally ceded Egyptian territory and done so in exchange for a “fistful of dollars”. Undoubtedly Sisi is acting in his own interests and survival as his country plunges further into chaos and economic hardship. But the fact remains that the islands are historically Saudi, and all that King Salman has done is take back direct control over islands his father already possessed and were a part of his dominion during a time that is still within the king’s own memory.

However, the question remains what the Saudis gain by reclaiming the islands now. To answer that, we must look back to why did Saudi Arabia agreed to the leasing of the Tiran and Sanafir islands to the Egyptians in the 1950s. This was likely in a bid to detach itself from direct responsibility for the Palestinian cause.

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Although this is unlikely to happen right now due to Israeli fears, Saudi Arabia has already reopened Iraqi-built pipelines to the Red Sea that it may expand in order to mitigate the threat of the stranglehold Iran has on Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s energy passes. It is also doing its utmost to prevent Iranian clients such as the Houthis from controlling Yemen and threatening access to the Gulf of Aden to the south. Saudi Arabia’s move should therefore be seen as an insurance policy to diversify its export and trade routes.

Finally, and as a furtherance of King Salman’s repeated statements calling for greater Arab unity in the face of shared threats, the King Salman Causeway, as it will be known, will pass over the islands and connect the Sinai with the Arabian Peninsula, thus bridging Africa and Asia and providing for a land route that bypasses the historical route that traverses the Levant.

Saudi Arabia is not only seeking to increase its economic ties with the Egyptians, a million of whom already live and work in Saudi Arabia, but it also probably sees this bridge as a way of connecting the Arabian Maghreb with the Mashriq. Apart from the obvious benefits of having such a land route for the annual Hajj pilgrims, there will be increased trade and commercial opportunities across both sides of the bridge, the idea being that with increased economic interdependence comes increased cooperation.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/why-saudi-arabia-decided-reclaim-its-islands-egypt-now-352329237

“Saudi readies oil line to counter Iran Hormuz threat”, June 2012

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Saudi Arabia has reopened an old oil pipeline built by Iraq to bypass Gulf shipping lanes, giving Riyadh scope to export more of its crude from Red Sea terminals should Iran try to block the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources told Reuters.

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The effects of tensions have been diverse, with Saudi Arabia's decision to widen its export routes the latest evidence of states in the region preparing for difficulties.

The Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA), laid across the kingdom in the 1980s after oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf by both sides during the Iran-Iraq war, has not carried Iraqi crude since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Saudi Arabia confiscated the pipeline in 2001 as compensation for debts owed by Baghdad and has used it to transport gas to power plants in the west of the country in the last few years.

Iran threatened in January to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. and European sanctions that target its oil revenues in an attempt to stop the nuclear program.

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Alarmed, Saudi Arabia has now quietly reconditioned IPSA to carry crude, test pumping along the line over the last four to five months, several sources with knowledge of the project say.

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More than a third of the world's seaborne oil exports pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz from the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports are all shipped through Hormuz.

Worried about its reliance on Gulf shipping, Saudi Arabia increased its capacity in 1992 to pump oil from fields predominantly clustered in the east across the country to the Red Sea. Capacity rose to about 5 million barrels a day through two parallel pipelines known as the Petroline.

Saudi crude exports run as high as 8 million bpd but rising demand for its crude in Asia, shipped out of the Gulf, and falling demand from Europe, usually sourced from Red Sea ports, meant Petroline's pumping capacity was never fully used.

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Until recently the Saudi government had considered the risk of such a disruption in the Gulf too small and its western gas needs too great to switch Petroline fully back to oil. But as tensions over Iran's nuclear program rose, it decided to put IPSA on standby to transport more crude west in an emergency.

The United Arab Emirates has built its own Hormuz bypass pipeline, which is due to start exporting from the Gulf of Oman next month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-hormuz-idUSBRE85R0KT20120628

“Iraq seeks to reopen oil pipeline through Saudi Arabia”, December 2015

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Iraq is seeking to reopen its crude oil export pipeline through Saudi Arabia, shut in 1990, state newspaper Assababah reported citing an unidentified Iraqi official. "The Iraqi oil ministry started taking steps to revive the Iraq-Saudi Arabia export pipeline, as part of a plan to diversify its export outlets," said the Baghdad-based daily.An Iraqi oil ministry spokesman declined to comment on the report.Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline in 1990, after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The pipeline used to carry Iraqi crude to the Saudi terminal of Yanbu on the Red Sea.The pipeline was built in the 1980s, during the Iraq-Iran war, to diversify Iraq's exports routes when the two countries were attacking each other's tankers in the Gulf.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iraq-saudi-pipeline-idUKKBN0U70NO20151224

“Saudi Arabia-Iran Rivalry In Africa: Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia Part Ways WithTehran As Riyadh Influence Grows”, January 2016

http://www.ibtimes.com/saudi-arabia-iran-rivalry-africa-sudan-djibouti-somalia-part-ways-tehran-riyadh-2255456

“Eritrea Says It Backs Saudi Arabia's Moves to `Combat Terrorism”, February 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/eritrea-says-it-backs-saudi-arabia-s-moves-to-combat-terrorism