Deep Analytics: Technologies for Humanity, AI & Security by Sumit Chakraborty, Suryashis Chakraborty, Kusumita - HTML preview

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1. SCOPE

Scope Analytics

Agents: system analysts, business analysts; scientists;

Moves : Critical success factors analysis, Requirements management;

Security parameters: define a set of sustainable development goals.

img75.png Energy security : clean and affordable power;

img75.png Utilities security :

    • pure drinking water : artificial rain, water conservation /* refer to session 2*/
    • oil (petrol, diesel) /* refer to session 7*/
    • gas: solar induction cooker may be a substitute of gas for cooking application;
    • telecom /* refer to session 8*/
    • internet /* refer to session 8*/
    • computing /* refer to session 8*/

img75.png Poverty control

img75.png Business model innovation

img75.png Environmental pollution control

Application domains : Solar lighting system, solar power pack, consumer electronics and home appliances, solar water heater, solar charging for computing devices and mobile phones, solar water pumps for agriculture, solar induction cooker, solar microgrid for rural electrification.

 

Prof. Tony Fergunson and Dr. Robert Messi have started the session exploring various applications of solar power system. The issues of water, oil (petrol, diesel) and telecom, computing and internet have been covered during sessions 2, 7 and 8 respectively. Entrepreneurial success depends on various factors. The critical success factors are associated with entrepreneurial motivation, creativity, business model innovation, rational and intelligent business plan, core competencies, new technology management, sustainable policy for economic growth, corporate social responsibilities, industry structure, government’s support in terms of incentives and subsidies, dynamic role of entrepreneurial education institutes, business incubator, business cluster and good support of financial institutions. Let us first explore a set of innovative business models for solar power technology.

This session is focused on the problem of global energy security and has explored a set of fundamental research agendas: What should be the strategic moves for the diffusion of solar technology? What should be the dominant design of solar power system in terms of structure and security? What is the scope of solar technology? What should be the right innovation model? What is the outcome of a rational SWOT analysis on various types of energy? What is the outcome of solar technology life-cycle analysis? Solar power electronics and nanotechnology based solar cells are two critical success factors of the dominant design of solar power system for the improvement of energy conversion efficiency and reduction of cost of solar energy generation. Are there any other interesting strategic moves in this connection? Is it really possible to enhance the absorption capacity of solar cells by 1000 times using the concept of nanotechnology? Can we adopt K-A-B-C-D-E-T-F innovation model for fast diffusion of solar technology globally?

Photovoltaic (PV) is the most direct way to convert solar radiation into electricity and is based on the photovoltaic effect, which was first observed by Henri Becquerel in 1839. Solar power electronics is an interesting option in transformation of old and traditional energy system which requires fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of as-is energy policy and technology. The present work has analyzed the technology of solar power through deep analytics in terms of seven ‘S’ dimensions: scope (S1), system (S2), structure (S3), security (S4), strategy (S5), staff-resources (S6) and skill-style-support (S7). Effective solar technology diffusion strategy demands a perfect fit, proper coordination and integration among these seven elements. It is clear from scope and SWOT analysis that solar power is a potential option of sustainable energy and business model innovations for the future as compared to other sources of energy. There are some technological constraints such as efficiency and cost of solar cells. Presently, solar power system is at the growth phase of technology life-cycle and it demands an intelligent and rational technology diffusion strategy through the support, commitment and involvement of efficient and creative innovators.

The basic objective of this session is to analyze the technology of renewable energy, more specifically solar energy. This is an interesting cross-fertilization between management science (e.g. business intelligence, technology management, entrepreneurship) and engineering science (e.g. photonics, power electronics, chemical engineering, electrical engineering, renewable energy and structural engineering). It is basically a modest effort to business model innovation and system implementation; it tries to explore a set of fundamental questions based on rational analytics: What are the intelligent moves in solar technology management? Who are the customers? What do they value? How is it possible to deliver value to the customers at optimal cost? What are the emerging application domains? What is the revenue model? What is the quality policy? What are the corporate social responsibilities? Can the business model generate significant number of new job opportunities in our society? Is the technology ready, feasible and practically implementable? What are the major constraints? What are the critical success factors?

The contribution of this work is that proper diffusion of solar technology at a fast speed requires effective coordination and integration among seven ‘S’ elements of the deep analytics. These moves must be integrated, coordinated and synchronized for effective diffusion of solar power technology. The scope analytics outline a set of interesting business model innovation in solar technology. The system intelligence is explored along five dimensions: smart materials innovation for photonic cell, power electronic circuit intelligence in terms of power amplifier, DC-DC boost converter, microinverter, energy storage, energy efficient load (e.g. LED, computing devices, motors) and topology (e.g. microgrid, standalone or hybrid system). The security intelligence is explored along four dimensions: switchgear, relay and earthing system and maximum power tracking based load manager. The strategic intelligence is associated with good governance, good wishes in public policy, industry analysis, efficient enterprise resource planning, supply chain management and marketing efforts like strategic pricing, promotion, trust in communication, sales and distribution.

The business model requires the support of a functional organization structure enabled with advanced information and communication technology. The structure should have project, power generation, distribution, maintenance, revenue management, HR, SCM and finance cells. The structure is also important for effective knowledge management: creation, storage, sharing and application of knowledge in a transparent, collaborative and innovative way. The business model should be operated by a pool of intelligent, educated, efficient, productive, committed and motivated staffs or HR workforce.

The workforce require different types of skills such as research and development, product design, sales, event management, project management, erection, testing, commissioning and service maintenance. One of the critical success factors is the style or quality of leadership in terms of motivation, commitment, support, coordination and excellent communication. The leaders must be able to share vision and values among all the stakeholders honestly and appropriately in time. It is really challenging to implement the solar power system physically and practically for global energy security. There are different threats from traditional industries: coal, oil and gas, thermal and nuclear power, local bias, power play and politics. It is essential to understand the intelligence of business modeling and system dynamics, fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of global energy trading. The traditional boundaries of electrical, power and consumer electronics and structural engineering industries must be redefined for future growth in a stable way. The research methodology adopted for this work includes literature review on solar energy, photonics and photovoltaic power electronics and case analysis.

The people of today’s world need energy security through emerging renewable technology, new business models and innovative applications. Presently, the global energy consumption is 10 TW per year and 30 TW by 2050. The solar energy plays a significant role in meeting the global energy demand in future. Solar power is useful for the growth of rural, urban, semi-urban and remote zone. The business models based on solar power can create significant number of new job opportunities in photovoltaic micro grid project, erection, installation, testing, commissioning and maintenance of standalone solar power system. Further, there are good opportunities of technology consulting in power electronics and product design and business consulting in global supply chain management. This section explores various types of innovative business models and applications of solar power electronics in terms of solar lighting system, solar power pack, consumer electronics and home appliances, solar charging for laptop and tablets, microgrid for rural electrification and solar water pumps for agriculture with some practical examples of business analytics. This section requires detailed cost benefit analysis based on current technical and commercial data.

Solar Lighting System : Solar power system can be used intelligently in various applications such as lighting of homes, religious places, tourist spots, streets, transportation management systems (e.g. airport, rail stations, bus stops, public toilets), educational institutes (e.g. schools, colleges, universities, research labs), healthcare institutes (e.g. public and private hospitals, health clinics, drug shops, pathological lab), office buildings of public and private firms, IT firms, hotels, restaurants, dairy firms, biotechnology firms and food processing units and space science. A typical solar lighting system can illuminate a house of 5 persons lighting 5 lamps for up to 5 hours daily. It can save the cost of 300 litres of Kerosene of about Rs. 10,000. The PV panel converts solar radiation into electrical power; the current is controlled by a charge controller or inverter and charges a battery. The battery supplies power to the connected load while switched on and illuminate. Rooftop solar power system should be used as alternative power supply during power cut due to cyclone or other various types of disaster.

Solar Power Pack: A power pack consists of a set of solar panels which convert solar radiation into electrical energy and transmit the power to domestic load or battery bank through a smart inverter. The battery bank stores surplus power when the demand mismatches with the supply. The inverter interacts with PV panel, domestic load, grid and battery intelligently to ensure continuous and regular supply of power. The rating may vary between 100W upto a few KW. A 1 KW power pack can save fuel cost of Rs. 50,000 per annum approximately and can also save energy bill of Rs. 10000 per annum.

Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances: Solar cells can be used as economical power supplies with miscellaneous applications such as solar cookers, fans, mobile phones, watches, tablets, laptops, torches, emergency lamps, LED, calculators, radios, televisions, freezes, air conditioners, water heaters, cars and other different types of home appliances. Solar cells are generally used in space vehicles.

Solar water heater: A solar water heater consists of a collector, pipes and an insulated tank. The collector is made of glass tubes in evacuated vacuum tube system or metallic tubes in flat plate collector system. It gets heated in sunlight and the heated water reaches the top of a water tank. The relatively colder and denser water descends into the tubes and gets heated through a continuous Thermo-siphon cycling effect. A 100 LPD water heater provides 100 litres of hot water at 65°C and saves Rs. 5000 energy cost annually. The existing design needs a change in terms of mechanism, size and compactness. Solar power enable water purifier is expected to be attached with tube wells in urban and rural zone to ensure the supply of clean purified drinking water.

Solar Charging for Computing Devices and Mobile Phones: Solar charging of batteries has recently become very popular for laptops, tablets and mobile phones. The typical voltage output of a solar cell is 0.7 V. A solar panel may have eight cells connected in series producing 5.6 V at most. It can charge a single Li-ion battery used in cell phones to 4.2 V with a buck or step-down charger. It requires a boost step-up charger to charge a multicell Li-on battery of a laptop.

Solar Water Pumps for Agriculture : The expert panel have already discussed the application of solar water pumps for agriculture during session 3 [58,59].

Solar induction cooker [53-57]: Solar cooker is an interesting emerging application; it may be a direct or indirect application. An indirect application is related to the use of induction cooker or microwave oven enabled with solar panel. Let us exercise SWOT analysis of solar induction cooker and conventional gas cooking oven / gas pipelines. Is it possible to explore the option of solar power enabled induction cookers at mass scale? Solar power enabled induction cooker should be a substitute of costly cooking gas. It is irrational to invest capital on new gas pipeline projects today in the age of induction cooker. Solar cooker uses the solar energy from direct sunlight  to  heat,  cook  or pasteurize food  or  drink.   It   is   relatively   inexpensive, reduces fuel cost, having simple technology and large solar cookers can cook for hundreds of people. Solar cookers have various advantages in terms of minimal fuel consumption, reduced danger of accidental fire, health and environmental pollution.

There are many types of solar cookers such as parabolic, solar ovens and panel cookers. The basic principle of solar cooker is based on concentration of sunlight, conversion of light into heat and trapping of heat. A mirrored surface with high reflectivity concentrate sun light on a small cooking area. It can produce high temperature like 65 - 400°C depending on the geometry of the surface. An alternative design of solar cooker concentrates sunlight on a receiver such as a cooking pan. The interaction between solar energy and the receiver material converts light to heat; it is maximized by materials which can conduct and retain heat. The convection of heat can be reduced by isolating the air inside and outside the cooker. Parabolic solar cookers concentrate sunlight to a single point which is focused on the bottom of a pot and can heat the pot quickly to very high temperature. Parabolic troughs are used to concentrate sunlight for solar-energy. Spherical reflectors operate like paraboloidal reflectors and can attain temperatures above 290°C to cook meat, vegetable, soup, baking of bread and boiling water in minutes.

But, solar cookers are less useful in cloudy weather and near the poles and may take longer time to cook food. The alternative solution is the adoption of induction cooker which can be operated through solar power fed by PV panels. It is essential to design user friendly solar cooker which can be commercialized. The basic principle is to incorporate heating into material by photovoltaic effect and thermal treatment. An efficient solar cooker needs the boosting of only 30W which is generated by a small standalone solar panel of 75W.

 

Solar Microgrid for Rural Electrification: A smart Microgrid is an interesting option of rural electrification [Figure 6.1]. It consists of solar panels, power condition unit (PCU), distribution box (DB), battery system and loads. Its size depends on the load estimation and the number of PV panels and rating of solar cells. The PV panels comprise of a set of solar cells connected in series or parallel; they convert solar radiation into electrical power; the power flows from PV panels to PCU or power inverter; PCU controls, regulates and directs the power to various loads (e.g. domestic load, water pumps in Greenfield). The surplus power generated in the daytime is stored in the battery bank and may be utilized after the sunset. The typical energy demand of a rural house is approximately 3 units. For a village of 100 houses, a 5 KW microgrid may be useful. It can generate annual energy of Rs. 50000. It is an approximate calculation.

img76.png

Figure 6.1: Solar microgrid for rural electrification

Let us consider the application of solar power for rural electrification: how solar power can illuminate the life of poor rural people. The innovative business model of solar power can save energy cost of rural people in domestic applications and agriculture. The peasants and farmers can reduce the cost of energy used in water pumps for irrigation in agriculture. It can improve the productivity required for green revolution. Many rural people suffer from road accidents and snake bites due to lack of adequate street light; the solar power can save them from those dangers in the form of solar torch. The rural students can study in the evening and night effectively using solar lamps. The rural people can save the cost of energy used for home appliances and domestic power supply. They are able to use modern electrical and electronics systems (e.g. home appliances, TV, music system, mobile phones, i- pod, computers, laptops, washing machines, freeze, induction cookers, microwave ovens etc.) through the use of solar power economically. In summer, they can feel comfortable using fans and air-conditioners and in winter, they can use room heaters and geezers. Rural market is a potential option for the growth of consumer electronics and electrical industries.

PV Panels or Solar Cells Manufacturing: The present global PV market is  growing at about 40% per year and global PV production was about 11 GW in 2009 due to rapid reduction in production cost, technology improvement and market development reflecting the economy, reliability and versatility of solar energy. About 80% of the global PV production is based on c-Si and pc-Si wafer technologies. Major market segments comprise consumer applications, industrial systems, rural electrification in developing countries, microgrid and hybrid systems. The major markets exist in USA, European Union (e.g. Germany), Japan, China and Taiwan. The top ten producers of PV cells and modules are First Solar, Suntech Power, Sharp, Q-cells, Yingly Green Energy, JA Solar, Kyosera, Trina solar, Sunpower and Gintech. In future, a set of PV panels (or solar cells) manufacturing plants should be set up in India through joint ventures. Definitely, the new industrial units will be able to boost the growth of manufacturing industry in India. The budding entrepreneurs must try to explore a set of fundamental questions based on rational analytics: Who are the customers? What do they value? How is it possible to deliver value to the customers at optimal cost? What are the emerging application domains? What is the revenue model? What is the quality policy? What are the corporate social responsibilities? Can the business model generate significant number of new job opportunities? Is the technology ready, feasible and practically implementable? What are the major constraints? What are the critical success factors? What are the business intelligence moves in solar technology management? How to make an effective business plan? What are the critical elements of an intelligent business plan? A good business model consists of four interlocking elements : customer value proposition in terms of target customers, jobs and product and service offerings; profit formula in terms of revenue model, cost structure, margin model and resource velocity; key resources such as people, technology, products, equipments, information, channels, partnerships, alliances and brand and key processes, rules, metrics and norms. A good business plan must have a set of common elements such as executive summary, the mission and vision of a company, organization structure, roles and responsibilities of management team, industry analysis, market, operation management strategy, marketing plan, financial plan, risks assessment and mitigation strategy. Many ventures fail due to lack of intelligence in defining a good business model and business plan.

The entrepreneurs need the support of business incubator, social network, business cluster and single window system from the ministry of MSME (Micro, Small and Medium enterprises). Entrepreneurial development institutes and MSME training institutes should focus on developing entrepreneurial skills in the domain of solar power electronics. A business incubator can nurture new ventures by providing them good guidance and support during start-up period. The entrepreneurs also need good network of technical experts and business development consultants. A business cluster may gain performance advantage through co-location, business relationships, right infrastructure and right skills. The aspiring entrepreneurs should be able to get all necessary permits and clearances by applying to a single agency of MSME ministry. The ministry of MSME should offer value adding incentive schemes and good mechanisms for access to debt, equity and venture capital, tax breaks, stimulating innovation, access to market and simplification of administrative burden and legal hassles. The policies should be correctly evaluated on regular basis. The rural banks and cooperative banks should launch innovative schemes (e.g. loan guarantee) to fulfill the needs of the budding entrepreneurs for rural electrification though smart Microgrids. Finally, the budding entrepreneurs must have commitment, determination, patience, tolerance of risk and uncertainty, creativity, self-reliance and motivation for successful ventures on solar power electronics.