Strategy Analytics
Agents: System analysts, business analysts, technology management consultants;
Strategic moves :
Call deep analytics ‘7-S’ model; explore how to ensure a perfect fit among 7- S elements – scope, system, structure, security, strategy, staff-resources, skill- style-support;
Define a set of energy security goals and emerging technologies accordingly.
Do SWOT analysis: strength, weakness, opportunities and threats of existing technologies related to energy security.
Fair and rational business model innovation associated with solar power
Do technology life-cycle analysis on ‘S’ curve : presently at emergence phase of ‘S’ curve.
Explore technology innovation-adoption-diffusion strategy for solar power system.
Explore innovation model and dominant design of solar power system.
Adopt ‘4E’ approach for the development of underdeveloped zone by building smart villages and optimal resource planning, allocation and distribution : Envision, Explore, Exercise, and Extend.
Prof. Johan Macacini is exploring the strategy for the innovation, adoption and diffusion of solar power technology. This element can be analyzed from different dimensions such as SWOT analysis, technology life-cycle analysis, R&D policy, learning curve, shared vision, communication protocol and knowledge management strategy.
SWOT Analysis : The technology of solar power is related to the problem of energy security. The people in today’s world are faced with significant challenges in energy sector such as shortage of energy, high cost of power generation and distribution, power distribution loss, environmental pollution, greenhouse gas emission and rural electrification. We must set an efficient national and global energy policy to promote the development of a sustainable energy system which should be viable environmentally, socially and economically based on solar power. The sustainability in energy not only requires the development of renewable energy but also promotes the use of energy efficient system such as LED lighting system which slows down the growth of energy demand and promotes the concept of clean energy that can cut down the usage of fossil fuel significantly.
Let us first do the SWOT analysis on solar power. Renewable energy uses natural energy sources such as sun, wind, water, earth’s heat and plants. There are different types of renewable energy such as solar, wind, hydropower, ocean or tidal, geothermal and bio-energy. Clean and green renewable energy technologies turn these fuels into electricity, mechanical, heat and chemical energy. It is basically an initiative of natural resource planning (NRP), a specific case of ERP. The world has limited supply of fossil fuels; there are critical issues of environmental pollution, safety and problem of waste disposal, rapid growth of energy demand. The use of thermal and nuclear power cause global warming which in turn results increase in sea level, flood, drought, heat wave and different types of natural disaster. Air pollution is one of the most dangerous killers worldwide – more than alcohol, sugar and kidney failure. The main cause of air pollution is the burning of fossil fuels. The crisis of global warming is associated with rising seas, catastrophic flood, devastating heat waves, changing heat structure of the atmosphere, unprecedented hurricanes, summer storms and smog. These events clearly show how the traditional old power plant engineering technologies are affecting the climate and weather globally. Renewable energy is plentiful and the technologies are improving rapidly. Solar technologies convert the infinite power of the sun into heat, light and power. Solar electricity or photovoltaic (PV) technology converts sunlight directly into electrical energy. Solar energy is a potential option for sustainable global energy demand. The PV market is growing rapidly.
National energy policy should be redefined since solar energy is an alternative source of energy and a substitute of traditional sources of energy such as thermal, hydel and nuclear power. It is essential to define a clear vision on renewable sources of clean energy such as solar power and set up relevant advanced research institutes to ensure energy security. Sufficient capital has been already invested on thermal, diesel and hydel power. The initial investment on hydel power plant is very high. It is not a good option for hot and dry zone where there is scarcity of water (e.g. drought in Brazil). The tribal workforce should be relieved from hard mining career (e.g. coal) in future. The nuclear power is very expensive due to shortage of fuel (e.g. Uranium). The coastal zones need several solar and wind power plants; it may be a hybrid system. Land may not be a constraint for the adoption of solar power; there is large barren land in rural zone; coastal areas, desert, hills, plateau and forests. The barren land may be utilized for solar park. It is possible to adopt ‘million roof program with solar power’. It is possible to make strategic alliance with reputed solar energy vendors and manufacturers of Germany, Japan, USA, China and Israel for fast and efficient implementation of solar power system. It is possible to build many solar parks but it is also required to promote intelligent standalone solar power system. This change in energy policy is not a simple, trivial problem. The people expect more dynamic and active performance from Solar Energy Society and Rural Electrification Corporation Limited. It is required to define an intelligent solar energy policy, imports of PV modules and anti-dumping strategy.
The strong points of solar power are direct conversion of solar radiation into electricity, no mechanical moving parts, no noise, no high temperatures, no pollution. PV modules have a very long life-time, the energy source i.e. the sun is free, ubiquitous, and inexhaustible. PV is a very flexible energy source, its power ranges from microwatts to megawatts. Solar power can boost the growth of various types of industries like photovoltaic cells or modules, power electronics devices (e.g. power amplifiers, converters and inverters), battery and energy storage devices, intelligent load managers with power tracking capabilities, smart micro-grid, steel and aluminum structures. It can reduce the cost of power generation, transmission and distribution and power distribution loss significantly. But, there are few constraints of this technology such as low efficiency of solar cell, maintenance, cleaning of dust, dirt and moisture from solar panels and the negative impact of natural disasters like storm, rainfall and snowfall.
Figure 6.7 : Technology life–cycle analysis
Technology Life-cycle Analysis : Deep analytics evaluates and explores top technological innovations in terms of technology life cycle, technology trajectory, S- curve, technology diffusion and dominant design. Technology trajectory is the path that the solar technology takes through its time and life-cycle from the perspectives of rate of performance improvement, rate of diffusion or rate of adoption in the market. It is really interesting to analyze the impact of various factors on solar technology trajectory today. How to manage the evolution of this technological innovation? The nature of innovation may shift after a dominant design emerges. At present, the solar technology is waiting for the dominant design. The diffusion indicates how new solar technologies will spread through a population of potential adopters. It is controlled by the characteristics of innovation, economic environment and the adopters like innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards.
At present, the technology of solar power is at growth phase of technology life-cycle [Figure 6.7]. It has come out from the emergence phase. It is interesting to understand how the life-cycle of solar technology is interacting with other technologies, systems, social impact, life-style and culture. The solar technology has been evolving from its parents such as other branches of electrical power system and electronics engineering; they are interacting with each other to form complex technological ecologies. The parents are adding their technological DNA which are the basic building blocks of new product development. A new development of solar technology must be nurtured properly since many technologies had perished at the emergence phase due to inherent constraints, uncertainties and risks. Next phase is growth; the solar technology has survived its early phases, it is adapting to various challenges of business model innovations and is forwarding to its intended environment with the emergence of competitors. It is basically the question of struggle for existence and survival for the fittest of the dominant design.
Initially, it may be difficult and costly to improve the performance of new solar technology; it may be costly for the adopters due to various uncertainties and risks. The performance is expected to improve with better understanding of the fundamental principles and system architecture. Gradually, this new technology may be adopted by large segments of the market due to reduced cost and risks. The rate of improvement of the new solar technology may be faster than the rate of market demand over time; the market share is expected to increase with high performance. The evolution of the solar technology is now passing through a phase of turbulence and uncertainty; various stakeholders of the supply chain are exploring different competing design options and a dominant design is expected to emerge in near future through the consensus and convergence of the system intelligence. Then, the producers will try to improve the efficiency and design of solar power systems based on stable benchmark of the industry. The dominant design must consider an optimal set of most advanced technological features which can meet the demand of the users, supply chain and design chain in the best possible way.
Quantitative Analysis: It is essential to exercise intelligent quantitative analysis through business analytics and technical analytics based on up-to-date technical and business data. Both types of analytics are closely associated. The scope of business analytics should be explored in terms of installed power generation capacity: Energy type, capacity (MW/GW), Period (year); PV market analysis based evolution of PV modules production : The basic parameters for this analysis may be energy sources (e.g. solar, wind, tidel, thermal, hydel, nuclear), market share, zone and growth rate; SWOT analysis; Period (year), zone, PV production; Top PV cell production companies, Period (year), MW; Type of PV cell, MW and PV Module comparison based on efficiency, and power rating.
The scope of technical analytics should be explored through advanced experimental set up and graphical data visualization techniques.
Solar cell
Cost vs. efficiency analysis : solar cell type (e.g. 1st, 2nd, 3rd generation), material (Si, III-V, II-VI, I, III, VI, Nano PV), , cost , energy conversion efficiency;
V-I characteristics : short circuit, open circuit, MPP at different irradiation and temperature
P-V characteristics for equivalent series and parallel resistance
Absolute error vs. voltage
Company, device, size, efficiency (%), Power (MW);
PV cell material, optimal absorption, band gap (minimum and maximum eV);
Deposition time vs. evaporation rate
Power electronic circuit performance analysis:
o DC-DC boost converter
o Photovoltaic module integrated Inverter or micro-inverter
Battery performance analysis in terms of battery capacity, nominal voltage, minimum battery voltage, maximum discharge current, maximum charging voltage, maximum charging current, steady state and transient analysis;
Temperature profile of solar cooker (Time vs. Temperature)
Shared vision : Efficient change management is one of the most critical success factors in solar system implementation. It ensures that an organization and its workforce are ready, willing and able to embrace the new business processes and systems. The change management is a complex process. The change should occur at various levels: system, process, people and organization. Communication is the oil that ensures that everything works properly in solar system implementation. Management’s honest determination to exert and maintain its right to decide within a policy of fairness and openness is essential for successful change management. An efficient leader creates understanding among his workforce through intelligent corporate communication.
Communication protocol : It is essential to communicate the scope of solar power to the common people, corporate sector, public policy makers, state and central governments, academic and research community through popular broadcast communication channels (e.g. TV, radio, social media, social networking sites, SMS, MMS, corporate web portals etc.) and adoption of rational and intelligent programmes, advertising and promotions. It is also possible to make innovative and creative documentary films on solar power evolution and broadcast the same to the academic and research community through school and college education systems and YouTube channels. It is rational to focus on introduction of courses on renewable energy and solar power in academic programmes of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (e.g. B.Tech, M.Tech, B.E.E, M.E., Ph.D.) and also business management (e.g. Technology Management, Strategic Management and Business Analytics for BBA, MBA, PGDM, PGDBM).
Goal : The strategic intelligence is associated with good governance, good wishes in public policy, industry analysis, efficient enterprise resource planning, supply chain management and marketing efforts (e.g. pricing, promotion, trust in communication, sales and distribution). Let us first consider pricing strategy. The diffusion of solar power requires a rational, discriminatory and fair pricing mechanism, incentive and subsidy policies. Industrial power play may be a serious threat against the adoption of solar energy. Existing power generation, transmission and distribution companies are comfortable with traditional thermal power technology. The coal, oil and gas industries are also not comfortable with the emerging trends of renewable sustainable energy. They do not want to save precious fossil fuels and oil. That is why, the old power generation and distribution firms are not serious in R&D and deployment of solar power system globally. Solar power is a real transformation initiative and the old firms are trying to resist against this change. Our society needs fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of energy policy. The pricing policy of solar power system (e.g. energy service charge, price of standalone solar power systems) should have necessary competitive intelligence to conquer the aforesaid threats.
Next, let us consider the promotional strategy. An intelligent marketing strategy is essential for proper technology management and enhancement of the awareness of new solar technology. The trade fairs and energy summits are expected to perform live product demonstration and interactive brainstorming sessions; audio and video display of solar power plants and standalone systems already in use in various places of the world; invite national and international technical experts and scientists from industry and academic institutions; invite energy policy makers, consultants, engineers, students, strategists, architects, construction and infrastructure project managers, entrepreneurs, traders, venture capitalists, banking & financial institutions (e.g. rural banks, national banks); invite Business Intelligence analysts to discuss possible growth roadmap and publish smart product catalogues and brochures. Event management plays an important promotional strategy; various workshops, conferences and seminars should encourage exchange of innovative ideas among the experts. There are other important initiatives such as training sessions for the workforce of construction and infrastructure firms, power generation, transmission and distribution companies and contractors; advertisements in popular business and industry magazines and daily newspapers; intelligent broadcast through TV, radio and corporate communication channels; pilot projects in villages, hilly areas, forests and deserts and active involvement of gram panchayat and municipal corporations in solar power system implementation programmes.
Another critical strategy is related to production process and supply chain management of solar cells. Sustainable photovoltaics need the production of next- generation smart materials, devices and manufacturing processes suitable for global needs, environment and resource availability, advanced manufacturing process and multi-scale modeling and reliability. Solar energy integration is a critical issue; it is essential to identify and assess key technical, economic, environmental, and policy barriers in the adoption of solar power globally. For correct road mapping and assessment, it is required to analyze market research, policy and technical data, solar energy integration, storage and multi-scale (10 - 500 kW) concentrating solar power systems.
Dominant design : The technology of solar power is going through an evolution. The emerging technology is trying to achieve a dominant design which may have two major aspects: (1) solar power electronics resulting an intelligent circuit and (2) Nanotechnology based solar cell as stated above. Dominant design is a concept of technology management, identifies key technological features that become a de facto standard. The innovators must try to explore dominant design to win the market share. The dominant design may be a new technology, product or a set of key features as the outcome of a set of independent technological innovations. When a new technology emerges, different firms introduce a number of alternative designs based on incremental improvements. The dominant design enforces standardization, results economies of scale and competition starts based on cost, scale, product features and performance. Dominant design may not be better than other designs; simply incorporates a set of key features that emerge due to technological path-dependence and not necessarily stricts customer preferences. Dominant designs are expected to acquire more than 50% of the market share. The process of dominance passes through a few milestones. An innovator conducts R&D to create a new product or service or improve an existing design. The first working prototype of emerging technology may send a signal to competitors to review the feasibility of their research programs. The first commercial product is launched and directed at a small group of customers and force the competitors to review and speed up their research efforts. A clear front runner emerges from the early market. Finally, a particular technological trajectory achieves dominance.
Technology trajectory is the path that a technology takes through its time and life- cycle from the perspectives of rate of performance improvement, rate of diffusion or rate of adoption in the market. It is really interesting to analyze the impact of various factors and patterns of technology trajectories of solar power system today. How to manage evolution of technological innovation? The nature of innovation shifts markedly after the dominant design emerges. The pace of performance improvement utilizing a particular technological approach is expected to follow S- curve pattern. The evolution of innovation is determined by intersecting trajectories of performance demanded in the market vs. performance supplied by solar cell technology. Technology diffusion of solar power indicates how new technologies spread through a population of potential adopters. It is controlled by characteristics of innovation, characteristics of social environment and characteristics of the adopters such as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. From the perspective of solar power, the basic objectives of technology management include several issues such as integrated strategic planning, forecasting, design, optimization, operation and control of products, processes and services to understand the dynamics of technology innovation, hype, priority, capability, maturity, adoption, diffusion, infusion, transfer, life-cycle, dominant design, spillover effects, blind spots and also the value of this emerging technology for our society. The basic objective of technology forecasting is to predict the future characteristics of solar power system.
Let us consider the issue of solar technology innovation, adoption and diffusion. We should analyze how over time an idea or product associated with solar power gains momentum and diffuses or spreads through a specific population or social system. Diffusion is the process by which innovations spread in our society over time, adoption is a decision of implementing innovations based on knowledge, and persuasion of individuals within a given system. The diffusion of innovation is the process by which new products are adopted by their intended audiences. It allows designers and marketers to examine why it is that some inferior products are successful when some superior products are not. Diffusion of innovation is responsible for the launch and spread of some of the most important advanced solar technologies in human society globally,
Technology diffusion is the process by which innovations of emerging solar technology is adopted by a population. The rate of diffusion depends