Strategy Analytics
Agents: System analysts, business analysts, scientist, engineers, technology management consultants;
Strategic moves : Focus on emerging logistics technologies.
Call deep analytics ‘7-S’ model; explore how to ensure a perfect fit among 7- S elements – scope, system, structure, security, strategy, staff-resources, skill- style-support;
Define a set of security goals and emerging technologies accordingly.
Do SWOT analysis: strength, weakness, opportunities and threats of existing technologies as compared to emerging technologies.
Fair and rational business model innovation.
Who are the consumers?
What should be the offering of products and services?
What do the consumers value?
What is the rational revenue stream ?
How to deliver values to the consumers at rational cost?
Do technology life-cycle analysis on ‘S’ curve : presently at emergence phase of ‘S’ curve.
Explore technology innovation-adoption-diffusion strategy.
Real-time fault diagnostics using fault tree analytics, FMEA and TFPG.
Automated verification of security intelligence at multiple levels using deep analytics
Distribution of intelligence
Processing unit integration
Integration of driver’s interfaces, train positioning and communication schema
Exchange of information between track and train
SWOT and TLC analysis
Explore innovation model and knowledge management system for creation, storage, sharing and application of knowledge.
Adopt ‘4E’ approach for innovation projects on logistics technologies :envision, explore, exercise and extend.
Prof. Prakash is analyzing the strategic moves for the innovation, adoption and diffusion of emerging logistics technologies. This element should be analyzed from different perspectives such as R&D policy, learning curve, SWOT analysis, technology life-cycle analysis and knowledge management strategy. An intelligent R&D policy should be defined in terms of shared vision, goal, strategic alliance, collaborative, collective and business intelligence. Top technological innovation is closely associated with various strategies of organization learning and knowledge management, more specifically creation, storage, transfer and intelligent application of knowledge. It is essential to analyze strength, weakness, opportunities, threats, technological trajectories, technology diffusion and dominant design of the technology of electrical and hybrid vehicles through logical and analytical reasoning.
The technological innovation is closely associated with R&D policy and organizational learning strategies in new product development and process innovation. There are various strategies of learning such as learning by doing and learning before doing. Learning by doing is effective in those technologies which demand low level of theoretical and practical knowledge. On the other side, learning before doing is possible through various methods such as prototype testing, computer simulations, pilot production run and laboratory experiments. It is effective for the innovation of EVs where deep practical and theoretical knowledge can be achieved through laboratory experiments that model future commercial production experience.
Let us explore the role of deep analytics on technological innovation of EVs. It is interesting to analyze the impact of different learning strategies and timing of technology transfer on product development performance, process re-engineering and R&D cost of this technological innovation. It is important to compare the effectiveness of various types of learning strategies in terms of cost, quality and time. It is also critical to analyze the relationship between process innovation and learning curve in terms of dynamic cost reduction and improvements in yield. It is essential to identify the critical success factors (e.g. resource allocation, ERP and SCM strategies) that influence the rate of learning and superior performance.
It is rational to evaluate strength, weakness, opportunities and threats of the technological innovation on electrical and hybrid vehicles. There may be major and minor strengths and weaknesses. Strength indicates positive aspects, benefits and advantages of EVs. Weakness indicates negative aspects, limitations and disadvantages of the technology. Opportunities indicate the areas of growth of the market of EVs and industries from the perspective of profit. Threats are the risks or challenges posed by an unfavorable trend causing deterioration of profit or revenue and losses.
Let us first do SWOT analysis on EV technology and explain the strength of EVs. Wide spread adoption of electrical and hybrid vehicles can limit the environmental pollution of conventional fuel based transportation and can reduce dependence on oil (e.g. petrol and diesel). Intelligent supply chain contracts and switching stations may increase driving. The adoption of electrical vehicles is safe, reliable and consistent. Rational policy intervention is expected to consider battery purchase subsidies and R&D for advancement of battery techniques in terms of safety, system performance, cost, life-span, specific energy and specific power. Sustainable green transportation is a critical research agenda of government, environmentalists, industry and academics; green fuel (electrical, biofuel, hydrogen, natural gas) can limit environmental pollution and oil dependence.
Next, let us talk about the weakness of EV technology. The transition from conventional gasoline vehicles to EVs poses several challenges. Increase in adoption of EVs may create unprecedented strains on the existing power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Renewable energy is typically intermittent which may result a potential mismatch between supply and demand. There are other constraints such as range anxiety and high battery cost that may limit consumer adoption. It is rational to adopt novel switching station based solution. Electrical and hybrid vehicles can use standardized batteries that when depleted can be switched for fully charged batteries at switching station. The consumers can pay for miles driven and don’t pay for upfront battery purchase. In case of range anxiety, an EV may have insufficient range to reach its destination. It demands technological advancement and high energy storage capacity of batteries. Next, let us explore the opportunities and threats of EV technology. Transportation sector is a significant contribution to environmental pollution. Geopolitical uncertainties often result increased vulnerabilities of oil based transportation infrastructure. The adoption of electrical vehicles is expected to result the growth of electrical drives, hybrid vehicles, renewable energy (e.g. solar microgrid, wind, tidel), power plants, standardized batteries and electrical battery charging stations. This business model requires an efficient payment function and market clearing mechanism. It is not rational to buy batteries; rather it should be replenished at battery charging stations. EVs require adequate supply of electrical energy; thermal power may not be an interesting option from the perspectives of environmental pollution.
SWOT analysis on Smart Batteries : Let us exercise SWOT analysis on Li-ion and solid state batteries. Electrical vehicles may be dearer to buy but cheaper to run. But there are issues of range and rate of efficient battery charging mechanism. Electrical batteries may be the game changer in the innovation of electrical and hybrid vehicles technology. Solid state batteries replace the wet electrolyte of lithium ion batteries with a solid electrolyte. Current lithium-ion batteries are flammable and produce heat and have short life span; constant charging and discharging slowly erodes the performance of the battery. Smart batteries are expected to be simple in design, cheaper and lighter in weight as compared to present Li-ion batteries; won’t need liquid cooling; the smart batteries should be long lasting, fire-proof and should permit faster charging.
Let us discuss the limitations of existing battery technologies of EVs. SSBs are generally very expensive; those batteries have other limitations such as poor system performance at low temperature, impact of pressure, breakage due to mechanical stress and risks of dendrites. Li metal dendrites from the anode piercing through the separator and growing towards the cathode in the form of crystal like structure. Generally, solid Li anodes in SSBs replace graphite anodes in Li-ion batteries for higher energy densities, safety, and faster recharging time. Solid Li anode experiences the formation of Li dendrites due to the reactivity of the metal. Li dendrites penetrate the separator between the anode and cathode to prevent short circuits. The penetration of Li dendrites into the separator may cause short circuit, overheating, fire or explosion from thermal runaway propagation and reduction of columbic.
There are also financial barriers of existing battery manufacturing plant; they have to invest significantly on solid state batteries. There is a huge difference between a technology that works on a small scale and one that is ready for mass market production. Cars charge as they drive; EVs demand the support of smart batteries which should be cheaper, smaller in size, light weight, non-flammable, increased life cycle (say 2-10 years), higher capacity and fit for faster charging and long range. The industry is looking for a sustainable, affordable and widespread energy conversion system. Is it possible to have a battery with two times the density of current batteries at 1/5 of the cost?
Technological life-cycle analysis : Deep analytics can evaluate and explore the technological innovation of EVs in terms of technology life-cycle, technology trajectory, S-curve, technology diffusion and dominant design. No element in this universe exists eternally. Similarly, the technology of EVs has emerged and is now growing to some level of maturity It is essential to evaluate the status of each technological innovation through TLC analysis. Some technologies may have relatively long technology life-cycle; others never reach a maturity stage. Emergence of new technologies follows a complex nonlinear process. It is hard to understand how the technology life-cycle interacts with other technologies, systems, cultures, enterprise activities and impacts on society. All technologies evolve from their parents at birth or emergence phase; they interact with each other to form complex technological ecologies. The parents add their technological DNA which interacts to form the new development. A new technological development must be nurtured; many technologies perish before they are embedded in their environments. Next phase is growth; if a technology survives its early phases, it adapts and forwards to its intended environment with the emergence of competitors. This is a question of struggle for existence and survival for the fittest. Next phase is a stable maturity state with a set of incremental changes. At some point, all technologies reach a point of unstable maturity i.e. a strategic inflection point. The final stage is decline and phase out or expire; existing technologies of oil fuelled vehicles will eventually decline and are phased out or expire at a substantial cost.
Let us consider the analysis of the performance of a new technology vs. effort; it is basically an S-curve. Initially, it is difficult and costly to improve the performance of the new technology of EVs. The performance is expected to improve with better understanding of the fundamental principles and system architecture. Next, let us analyze the adoption of the technology over time which is also an S curve. Initially, the new technology of electrical and hybrid vehicles may be costly for the adopters due to various uncertainties and risks. Gradually, this new technology is expected to be adopted by large segments of the market due to reduced cost and risks.
The rate of improvement of the new technology may be faster than the rate of market demand over time; the market share increases with high performance. Technological change follows a cyclical pattern. The evolution of the new technology of EVs is passing through a phase of turbulence and uncertainty; various stakeholders of the supply chain are exploring different competing design options of the new technology and a dominant design is expected to emerge alongwith a consensus and convergence of structure. Then, the producers will try to improve the efficiency and design of the EVs based on stable benchmark of the industry. The dominant design of EVs must consider an optimal set of most advanced technological features such as smart batteries, solar power enabled battery charging mechanism and V2V communication, which meet the demand of the customer, supply and design chain in the best possible way.
Technology trajectory is the path that the technology of EVs takes through its time and life-cycle from the perspectives of rate of performance improvement, rate of diffusion or rate of adoption in the market. It is really interesting to analyze the impact of various factors and patterns of technology trajectories of this innovation today. How to manage the evolution of this technological innovation? The nature of innovation shifts markedly after a dominant design emerges. The pace of performance improvement utilizing a particular technological approach is expected to follow an S-curve pattern. The evolution of innovation is determined by intersecting trajectories of performance demanded in the market vs. performance supplied by technologies. Technology diffusion indicates how new technologies spread through a population of potential adopters. It is controlled by characteristics of innovation, characteristics of social environment and characteristics of the adopters such as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. What should be the innovation model for effective innovation, adoption and diffusion of emerging technology of EVs / HVs? It is rational to adopt K-A-B-C- D-E-T-F model.
It is expected that RailTech will go through emergence, diffusion, development and maturity phases in this decade. At present, the technology is at growth phase of TLC. It is not a trivial task to evaluate and explore technology life-cycle in terms of S-curve, trajectory, diffusion strategy and dominant design of RailTech. It is hard to understand how RailTech interacts with other technologies, systems, cultures, enterprise activities and impacts on society. What should be the innovation model for effective innovation, adoption and diffusion of emerging technology of Railtech security? It is an interesting option to adopt K-A-B-C-D-E-T-F model. Initially, it may be difficult and costly to improve the performance of the RailTech; the performance is expected to improve with better understanding of the fundamental principles and system architecture. The evolution of this technology passes through a phase of turbulence and uncertainty; various stakeholders associated with the system may explore different competing design options of the new technology and a dominant design will emerge through consensus and convergence of structure.