We now understand what an arb is and the different types of odds that we may come across in the pursuit of the arbs. So lets go find those arbs.......
The first thing we need to do is find a suitable event. One where we can cover all possible outcomes for all competitors and be sure of making a profit before the event starts, knowing the result of the event is not important.
Firstly we need to find all the odds that are being offered for that event and list them.
Now clearly we do not want to choose an event where there are lots of participants and we have to bet on every one of them to create an arb. The tour de France is a no no. By the time we have calculated the odds for the umpteen riders winning the race the odds may have changed and its all too complicated.
We are ideally looking for bets where there are only two outcomes. Win or lose and then our next best option is three outcomes, typically win, lose or draw. The fewer the outcomes the easier the arb is to calculate and ultimately spot.
So with that in mind lets take a tennis match as an example. We would look on the Internet and find all the odds offered from as many bookmakers as is possible. We would list the odds they are offering and find the best value for player A to win and the best value for player B to win as in the example above.
How many sites or bookmakers to approach is an interesting question. It will become clear with a little experience which bookmakers are consistently the best at offering the best selection of prices on certain events and which specialise on other events. Clearly the greater the list of bookmakers offering varying odds the more chance of finding an arb. However we will find in the next chapter that help is at hand in finding and listing these odds.
Now, be warned prices can change and so when findings arbs time is of the essence. It is no good collating the odds one day and calculating the arb the next only to find that the odds have changed.
Once we have the best odds we should do the simple calculation of adding up how much we need to stake. If the percentage is less than 100% then we have an arb. The staking chart above is the easiest method of working out this figure. As before if the odds were 6/4 the chart would show a percentage stake of 40% and 8/11 would show 57.80%. A total stake of 97.80% to return 100. This is known as being under 100% or the 100% rule. We also know it as an arb.
Now that the arb is found the rest is plain sailing. We need to decide how much to stake, place the two bets and wait for our winnings. It will become clear with a little experience that one of the prices which make up one side of the arb appears slightly out of line with what the other bookmakers are offering. This is the one you should bet on first to ensure that we don’t fall foul of prices suddenly changing. It can happen.
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If one bookmaker is offering 6/4 on player A and five bookmakers are offering 8/11
on player B then 6/4 is the bet to place first. Then we have plenty of time to select one of five other bookmakers which can provide the 8/11 price to complete the arb. This is important.
An arb will typically be found because one price offered by one or more bookmaker is clearly out of line with the common prices of the other bookmakers. Always place your stake first on the odds which are out of line. Complete the other side of the arb secondly, where you may have a selection of bookmakers you can use all offering the same price.
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Chapter 6 - The internet and Odds comparison sites Thank goodness for the Internet and frankly you can’t run this business very easily without it. If you are serious about the business whether it is just to earn some extra cash or to do it full time the Internet is an invaluable tool. Firstly, for finding the arbs and secondly for placing the bets.
To help us with our odds comparisons a number of sites dedicated to this very purpose have sprung up in the last few years. They list the odds from a number of bookmakers provide links to them for placing the bets and offer other invaluable titbits to aid us in our pursuit of arbs.
Mostly their prices are updated in real time and are reasonably accurate. These odds comparison sights are the first place you should look to save you having to do some of the odds listing manually.
Here is a list of some of the sites and the features which they employ. I neither offer them as a recommendation nor vouch for their accuracy. You will learn in this business that as you gain greater experience and knowledge you will assimilate your own opinions on the comparative merits of each site. Also the design and content of these sites do change over time, usually for the better as they develop and become more sophisticated.
One thing to bear in mind when reviewing these services some of them offer a sure bet service which is basically an arb in the waiting. These can be useful but these arbs are found by utilising software written for scanning a number of bookmaker prices.
Like all things in computing it is only as good as its software. There are going to be occasions when the software misinterprets the data it is being passed from the bookmakers and highlights an arb which doesn’t exist. Always check prices before committing funds. A recent example from one of the sites emailed a sure bet with a win percentage of 166%, clearly an error.
WWW.ODDSCHECKER.COM
This is one of the better laid out sites for finding odds and easy to navigate. It covers all the sports in which we are interested. Sub categories list the various events taking place within that sport. The site offers all the odds from a number of participating bookmakers. At the time of writing this was primarily about 20 major bookmakers all from the UK. Also to make life easier the best odds are highlighted and the best percentage book displayed. Any book under 100% means that an arb is available.
To take an example of their English soccer coverage they cover all matches in all professional leagues. Also a selection of odds on the first scorer in a match, last scorer, total goals, total corners and so on. The prices for all events are updated on a regular basis and some effort is made to keep this as accurate as possible.
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However on placing bets, after clicking the relevant bookmakers’ odds, you will find that the odds may have changed and the arb has gone. This is an issue of timing, and experience will tell you that prices come and go, sometimes at the very moment of the execution of the arb. This site offers the odds displayed in all formats, but as before I suggest using the decimal format which is the most logical and popular way for calculating arbs and general betting worldwide.
When all the odds are listed it is possible to track the history of all the prices that have been offered by a particular bookmaker. This is useful for noting patterns of betting and checking for future reference whether any arb opportunities were available earlier and at what time odds were being posted by the firms.
This site also offers a glossary of betting terms, help for the beginner and a detailed breakdown of a number of bookmakers with various detailed information on them.
This includes betting limits, whether they belong to IBAS (Independent Betting Arbitration Service), maximum payouts, methods of transferring money and their various settlement criteria.
It also has a section on specials which are non-sporting events such as political bets or the winner of a reality TV program. These non-sporting events can be lucrative for arbs and are discussed later in the book.
WWW.BETBRAIN.COM
Another good site which again shows the odds from a large number of bookmakers.
Approximately 75, but the exact number is listed on the home page. The coverage of sports is also excellent and the layout of the site is quick and easy to follow. This is definitely aimed at the more experienced and professional trader. They too have a sure bet section and this is basically to highlight arb opportunities. This is in the middle of the home page and is clear and easy to follow. This handily links into the relevant bookmaker sites.
Again, be cautious about logging on and finding half a dozen easy arbs. This would be too easy by half but they do exist so check them out to see if they are still current.
If you are given an easy arb here treat it as a bonus. The sure bet will show the percentage win so this part of the calculation is done for you, all you have to do is calculate your stake, click on the relevant bookmakers and create the arb.
The 'Quick Brain' facility allows you to navigate to your particular sport very quickly without fuss. There is a forum in bet brain which is split into four categories.
Bookmakers, Matches, Surest and Services. There are various postings under each category going back months. There are often comments on experiences from fellow arb makers.
The bookmakers’ discussion category is useful for discussing a number of topics. You may wish to know if a particular bookmaker is worth avoiding for whatever reason or you may want to know which offer the early prices on a particular event. Other Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
punters experiences are worth knowing. Betbrain, by its very existence probably has a number of arbitrageurs using their site.
WWW.ODDSEXCHANGE.COM
This is another professional set up offering just the sort of useful data that an arb seeker wants. After a recent revamp this site is offering a great deal of detailed data on a huge range of sporting events. Again its easy to navigate and utilises a wide range of bookmakers. The sure bets are again on the home page and clearly marked.
This site also offers ‘sure bets’ to your email. Just register and twice a day you will receive all the sure bets that the service has found. This site covers a large range of bookmakers. It's most convenient to have these sent to your email account. However be careful, they may be out of date as they are sent twice a day and not when they are found. Again, always check the prices actually on the bookmaker’s site before committing funds to any arb.
What you definitely need to be aware of, if you intend to use these ‘sure bets’, are the rules of the individual bookmakers. Be aware of their terms and conditions especially when using betting exchanges. You can find that taxes are deducted from your winnings, if the bookmaker is registered in a country that does this. You might not have taken account of this, and neither might the software which highlights possible arb opportunities.
This site for example warns of the different settlement rules for basketball and ice hockey. Check the settlement rules which will be listed on the bookmaker’s site.
The interesting thing about these sure bets is that they cover North American sports, typically ice hockey, basketball and American football. These are sports which have the same possibilities for arbs as anywhere else. In fact they can be quite rich in arb opportunities as the bookmakers will work towards a smaller profit potential.
The European bookmakers which cover the American sports tend to be sheep and follow the prices posted by their American counterparts. This is hardly surprising as the vast majority of the money will be wagered through North America, by North Americans and they will be much more informed of any news that would affect prices.
The European bookmakers are reactive to events and clearly not proactive in offering early prices. Arbs can occur because the European bookmakers are slow to alter their prices when their American counterparts are much quicker to react to events.
Here is a typical sure bet offered by odds exchange. They will list the competitors, the event, the best odds, the percentage win, the date and the number of bookmakers they have scrutinised. They will repeat the sure bet later if it is still available, although the odds may have changed. In this case both bookmakers saw their prices changing.
Fabiola Zubuaga vs Lubomira Kurhajcova WTA tour tennis Centrebet
1.22
Marathonbet 6.30
2.2%
28/2
No. 21
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Twelve hours later this alert was issued.
Centrebet
1.25
Marathonbet 6.00
3.4%
29/2
No. 24
WWW.TIP-EX.COM
This site is aimed more at the professional player but the layout leaves a lot to be desired. Again a sure bet section on the home page is very useful for us. The odds comparison part is not as good although they do cover a wide range of sports. The sure wins can at times seem to list a huge number of opportunities with the bookmakers and the percentage profit listed. However beware as with all these free sites that not all these are available at the time and I have found this particular facility to be erratic at times. This is all well intentioned but if the odds being shown are out of date they are of no use.
This site collates prices from in excess of 100 bookmakers and this alone highlights it as one for the favourite folder. As stated its not so user friendly as the others but here is how to translate the data.
Once you have selected a sport and event then you are faced with a series of columns.
We are interested in the first 3 columns that relate to each bookmaker. These are the European or decimal odds format multiplied by 100. So for example in a soccer match with home win, draw and away win the first 3 figures might read: Ladbrokes
320
330
205
These should be divided by 100 to give the decimal equivalent: Ladbrokes
3.20
3.30
2.05
Due to the large number of bookmakers offering odds this can be a great place for some easy arbs. However again a word of caution. The prices are not real-time and there has been known to be a delay between price updates.
This site seems to trawl through a large number of bookmakers to find their prices and once you are comfortable with the format its worth paying it a regular visit.
WWW.INFOBETTING.COM
This is another useful site. Firstly they list a whole host of bookmakers, a large number of which you should open accounts with. The odds comparison part of the site Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
is easily navigable and extensive. The total number of bookmakers offering prices are listed along with their odds.
The best odds for each outcome are highlighted in red. The odds that are shortening are highlighted in blue. At the end of the odds comparison page a summary of the best odds available are presented and the percentage return listed. As you may have guessed, any return under 100% will indicate an arb.
Another interesting point here is that the various bookmakers list their odds for a number of events. It is clear who price their selections first and those who wait until later to offer prices. However this does not necessarily mean that the prices are not available they just have not been posted on their internet site.
Typically if we take the English Premiership all the forthcoming matches for the following week are listed. However if there are betting opportunities on a Sunday then the odds for the following match say next Saturday will not be available.
Having said this there are bookmakers who price up well in advance in the hope of gaining an edge on their rivals. If their prices are wrong with the market then an arb will appear when the other bookmakers price their games.
The chart on this site at the end of the odds comparison page will help with this. It is very clear which prices are out of line with the general market and which prices are not. Listing the number of bookmakers which are offering odds indicates the best markets for arbs.
As good as this site is it does not list all bookmakers. It is an Italian based site but has an English translation. The design of the site leaves a lot to be desired but don’t worry about that. The site is particularly keen on tennis and soccer. If you are specialising in these sports this site is a useful aid to you.
One thing to note here and this is where a lot of beginners go wrong and get disillusioned. These odds comparison sites are generally speaking highlighting the odds from a selective number of sources. They do not list all the odds from all the bookmakers offering a bet on the event.
The sites are usually inextricably linked to these ‘sponsor’ bookmakers who pay them to drive business to their sites. There is no harm in this except when the odds comparison site says these are the best odds you can get, don’t believe them. These are the best odds from the bookmakers they are affiliated to.
There is no point in listing here which sites seem to be linked to which bookmakers as this can change quite rapidly. Suffice to say do not get stuck looking at one odds comparison site when looking at two or more is going to give a fuller picture. In a typical scenario for an arb there will be only one bookmaker that stands out with the best price on one outcome of an event say a home win. Another bookmaker will offer the best odds on the draw and a third the best odds on the away win.
Any one odds comparison site may not have all three ‘best’ prices and therefore not list the arb, when in fact it does exist you just need to dig a little deeper. The moral is
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the arbs are there but you must not just look at one odds comparison site, see that there are no arbs, give up and move on elsewhere. You may have missed an opportunity.
WWW.EASYODDS.COM
UK site started in 2000. Has a limited number of bookmakers. Don’t use much and appears to like to concentrate on horse racing. Wide list of sports on offer. Not my favourite site.
WWW.BESTBETTING.COM
Good site well laid out. Shows the usual percentage book. Steamers odds in odds out etc. Has the usual suspects i.e. major bookmakers for the odds. Not really enough though. Has a good alert on special bets which can add to arb profits.
WWW.BETRESCUE.COM
This is a new site which is worth a look. This site may well develop into one of the stronger candidates, we will have to wait and see. Aimed definitely at securing value for the betting amateur and possible professional too.
Here is an example of where there are odds offered on an odds comparison site and there is an implication that there is not an arb available.
However they are missing Betfair, currently the biggest of the exchanges.
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If we combine both sets of prices let us see what happens. If we take the best price for Reading to win which is 1.36 with William Hill. Take the best price for Man City to win which is also with Betfair at 30 and take the draw with Stan James at 4.8 we have the following scenario.
Reading
Draw
Man City
William Hill
1.36
Betfair
4.8
Betfair
30
Let us work out the percentages approximated from the conversion table.
Reading
Draw
Man City
William Hill
73.33
Betfair
20.70
Betfair
3.30
This makes a total percentage of 97.33. A nice profitable arb with plenty of liquidity in Betfair to allow us to place a high stake.
Here is another example from the world of soccer where a quick check of the odds comparison sites yielded more than one arb on the same event. Surprisingly these were available for many days so you could take as much as you wanted.
It’s the Champions League winner for 2006/2007 season in Europe.
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Firstly let us look at Barcelona to win the Champions League. Their odds are decimal 5.0 with three different bookmakers on this one odds comparison site. Look at Betfair and you can lay Barcelona at 4.8. just look at the amount of money waiting for you to lay off on Betfair against Barcelona.
If you look further down the list you can get 15 with Stan James and lay them off at 13.5 up to 14.5 on Betfair, all be it with a greatly reduced liquidity.
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There was even the opportunity for Valencia to make a profitable bet. Back them with Betdaq at 30 and lay them off on Betfair at 28.0 (not shown).
OK, so was this unusual? No, a few weeks later the odds had improved and an even greater profit was available. You can bet on Barcelona at 5.0 with Premierbet and lay them off on the exchanges at 4.5.
Don’t worry if you don’t understand the laying off of bets. This will be explained in the chapter on betting exchanges. At which point it may be worth revisiting this chapter to understand this concept and the examples more thoroughly.
All these examples are using the odds comparison sites for easy arb profits.
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Chapter 7 - Organisation and starting out
Organisation
You will probably start this business filled with excitement and a little trepidation. Tip number one, don’t go at it like a bull in a china shop. Planning is everything, whether you are starting out for the first time and when you are experienced. If you wander from event to event aimlessly collating odds then you will get frustrated very quickly.
The main point is to plan your strategy, organisation is critical to success. Be sure to keep records of all your activity, and in the first two months a diary of your arb hunting. This will highlight possible pitfalls and dead ends which can be avoided next time. The diary will include important information such as when prices for certain events became first available and which bookmakers were offering them.
This is a key factor when looking for profitable arbs. The early prices first displayed on the Internet or offered over the phone, before they are available online, are the most likely for finding arbs. Be there first!
Clearly you will want to open accounts with a number of bookmakers trading on-line.
You will need to do this up front before you start trading. There is no point in waiting until you find an arb and then opening an account. The delay in opening the account may mean the arb is lost. There are links to bookmakers in this book and on the website. Opening accounts is free and as you will see later on this will be profitable in itself due to the bonuses given for just opening the accounts.
When first starting out decide to concentrate on one or two events. A lot of people choose soccer as this offers a number of different opportunities. Then decide what area of soccer you are most likely to find arbs in. That is what type of bet will be the most lucrative for arbs and what types are a waste of time. This will be discussed in greater detail in the next chapter.
When concentrating on an event collate as many prices as you can from as many bookmakers as you can. For example the more obscure the soccer match the more opportunities tend to arise. So why not start by looking at some of the lower divisions.
Find out when various bookmakers first post their odds for a match. Some are quick off the mark, others wait to see h