It’s not surprising that the tennis market is one where bookmakers may tend to run scared. Some of the bigger companies are reluctant to stick their necks out and will not offer prices at all. Not all companies who are involved in tennis betting price up all tournaments, another indication of their trepidation in this arena. The Tote for example will tend to stick to the major tournaments.
In making tennis arbs we should just concentrate on the match result. As mentioned I think the bookmakers are a little scared of offering other odds e.g. set betting when their knowledge of the whole event is limited. I have noticed some of the firms tend to huddle around the same price looking for safety in numbers, but not all. The bigger firms will be more confident of their opinion and lead the way by offering their prices earlier.
Another bonus from tennis matches is that when a match is finished the player is through to the next round. If at this point he knows his opponent the bookmaker will be looking to set the odds. There is now a form guide and the bookmaker is more comfortable about offering a price.
Therefore as soon as the match is finished a hunt should be on for the odds for the next round. The bookmakers will try to place their odds as soon as possible after the two players in a match have beaten their previous opponents. This allows us to be fairly accurate about when the opening prices are going to appear once a tournament is underway.
Again, the opening prices will offer the greatest chance of finding arbs. It’s when the greatest number of discrepancies between prices appear. With tennis we can be fairly sure that these prices will be offered as soon as the two competitors in a match are known. They may however not be available on the odds comparison sites. Phone up Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
and ask. You will get a pleasant surprise if the odds are relayed to you over the phone before they are on the Internet.
Lets stop for a minute. Tennis is a good example of where it might be easier to look at the job of setting odds from the compilers point of view. We are dealing with individual players. They have varying confidence. They have varying levels of fitness.
One may have just played 3 sets, one five. One may have a days rest between games the other not. And as for the form book they may never have played each other before, in tennis this is quite likely and also if they have, it may have not been on the current playing surface, further confusing the form book.
What is more the compiler has to take these all into account and form an opinion as soon as the match between two players is known. No wonder odds in tennis can vary.
Here are some examples from Wimbledon 2002. The first example is Justine Henin from Belgium against Monica Seles from the U.S. You don’t need to know that Seles is in the twilight of her career even though she is still in her twenties and Justine Henin is vying for number one in the world. The bookmaker is the one who needs to concern themselves with form. All we are looking for are discrepancies in prices leading to profitable arbs.
Seles
Henin
Tote
2.38
Expekt
1.85
Yabet
1.90
Unibet
1.80
SportingOdds
1.80
Here are the percentages as specified in the table in chapter 4.
Seles
Henin
Arb win percent
Tote
42.0*
Expekt
54.05
4%
Yabet
52.38
5%
Unibet
55.56
2.5%
SportingOdds
55.56
2.5%
* One thing to notice is that the 2.37 value is not in the conversion table. It is assumed to be about 42.0. This can be calculated if required.
In this match up the Tote were offering odds of 2.38 on Seles to win. This stood out like a sore thumb as appearing to be too high. All the other bookmakers agreed Henin was the favourite but rated Seles’s chances better.
Therefore the odds they were willing to offer on Henin were better than the Tote’s and several arbs were made on this one match. Expekt a good bookmaker for tennis offered 1.85 on Henin, making an arb of about 4%. Yabet even offered odds of 1.90
making an arb over 5%. Several others including Unibet and Sportingodds were Visit www.SportsBettingLoophole.com
offering 1.80 on Henin offering an arb of about 2.5% when coupled with the Tote price.
The lesson here is that there is often one bookmaker who, for whatever reason, will offer odds different from the market. Opposing them may be half a dozen other companies which make up the other half of the arb. In this instance the more money we could lay with the Tote the better as we knew we could find several other firms to make the other side of the arb. We could do this at leisure as it was clear that all of their prices would not change quickly as they were in agreement.
A word of caution. Tennis matches can be halted due to injury on a more regular basis than you may think. It is important to check the terms and conditions that a bookmaker imposes on such an event. Usually the result stands but if there hasn’t even been a set played then the bet may be void. There is no point having an arb if the match is abandoned and the winning half of the bet is void and the losing half is not void and you lose this stake.
Finally there is always a possibility of an arb with the total number of aces bet. This is split into the habitual three ranges. For example below 10 aces, 10 to 12 aces and over 12 aces. This type of bet will be more to the fore and will be covered in greater numbers when the match has big servers and the media are concentrating on this.
Less than 10 aces
10 to 12 aces
Over 12 aces
In fractional odds
6/5
13/8
4/1
In decimal odds
2.2
2.62
5.0
In percentage terms
45.45%
38.10%
20.00%
Clearly these ranges will vary greatly depending on who is playing and on what surface they are playing on. Each bookmaker will decide their own range of bets. This type of betting is more akin to the spread betting scene where there can be large profits and losses.
Early prices are everything. Prices are unlikely to subsequently change due to injury news etc. only due to money wagered. Establish when you expect the odds to first become available with a bookmaker for a match. Here is an actual example of an early price for a tennis match.
Lleyton Hewitt versus Roger Federer
Leyton Hewitt
Roger Federer
Unibet
2.50
GermaniaSport
1.85
This resulted in an arb of 6.3%. Although this price was an early one it did not last long and the Unibet price came in (reduced) as the match approached.
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Price movements vary for first round matches at the start of a tournament and subsequent rounds. If possible, phone the bookmaker up directly before they are posted on the Internet. Use this technique in conjunction with the odds you will find on the comparison sites and directly on the bookmakers internet sites.
Concentrate on the early rounds. This is before a player’s form is noticed and the odds compilers have greater knowledge with which to work and agree. Here is another example of a tennis arb that was available recently. They are in decimal format. Again there is no need to know the players only to realise that a match has only two possible results. Win or lose.
Catalina Castano versus Fabiola Zulaga
Catalina Castano
Fabiola Zulaga
Marathonbet
6.00
Centrebet
1.25
This resulted in an arb of 3.4%
In conclusion tennis tournaments are global and the odds offered are global. There are tournaments weekly and there are always arbs available. I would suggest that if you were to concentrate on one sport to start with then tennis was as good as any. These type of match result arbs in tennis occur frequently. It has been known to find several on the same day.
To summarise the best type of bet for tennis arbs: Match betting
Total number of aces
Bookmakers who are worth considering for tennis betting are: WWW.Bet365.com
WWW.Canbet.com
WWW.Ladbrokes.com
WWW.Sportingbet.com
WWW.Gamebookers.com
Information sites for tennis:
WWW.Espn.go.com/tennis
WWW.Atp.com
WWW.Tennisserver.com/news
WWW.Masters.com
WWW.Skysports.com/skysports/tennis
WWW.Sportal.com (select tennis)
WWW.Sporting-life.com/tennis/news
Tennis sporting calendar.
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Apart from the grand slam events the tennis calendar is split into the men's and women's tour. The men's tour is known as the ATP tour and the official website is Atptennis.com. The women's tour is the WTA tour and their official website is Wtatour.com. For both the men's game and the women's game tournaments are played every week of the year apart from the Christmas holidays. It would be pointless to list them all here. Each tournament offers a potential hat full of betting opportunities and lucrative arbs.
Golf
Golf is a great arb maker there are just so many tournaments, usually at least one a week where odds are being offered by several bookmakers. As you are probably aware by now the more bookmakers there are the greater the chance of an arb
‘appearing’.
The larger the tournaments the greater the number of firms offering prices. The four majors offer the richest source of arbs. If a tournament is on the European tour and mainly consists of Europeans then the nationalities of the competitors will usually indicate which firms will offer prices. There will only tend be interest in it from countries where they have at least one competitor. It doesn't really matter as this is a global business.
The advent of online bookmaking has meant the odds on offer have become more competitive particularly in Europe. This has meant that arbs in golf have become common. As mentioned in the previous sections, you may find one firm offers prices completely different and wrong from their competitors. This will give an easy arb opportunity as there are many firms to choose from to make up the other half of the arb.
Firstly forget about going for the outright winner of a tournament. Except for specific invited events the fields tend to be too large to cover all possible outcomes. The only exception being one player versus the field type of bet. This would really only be possible where the one player was clearly far superior to their competitors and had odds in the low single digits. The bet then against ‘the field’ may offer an arb, but don’t waste your time looking here.
Again there are a wide range of bets available in golf but past experience tells us that we are going to be most interested in the match ups between players. This may be two players head to head or three balls.
The two players head to head will occur for matchplay tournaments where they may play 18 or 36 holes. Alternatively and this is more common, the bookmakers take two competitors of equal ability and price them up as if they were going head to head.
This is similar to the Formula 1 scenario where two drivers are pitted against each other just for the convenience of creating a betting opportunity.
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The head to head scenario in golf can be over 18 holes or whoever has the best overall score throughout the length of the tournament. Be careful not to mix these two bets up. They are distinct. Also be careful to know the settlement rules in the case of a tie.
Some bookmakers price the tie others return stakes. With the odds of a tie ranging from 7/1 upwards depending on the number of holes being played and the competitors’ relative abilities. Clearly pricing in the tie will have a dramatic effect on the odds. Also the tie is much more likely over 18 holes than 72. Be careful!
Carrying on, from the two ball game, is the three ball game or three ball match up.
This is your typical golf tournament scenario where three competitors play a round together. Only for the purposes of the 'bet' the bookmakers offer odds on their chances of beating their fellow two competitors. The first round of a tournament is where there is the most likelihood of players of different ability starting the round together. This means the bookmakers have the toughest job of pricing these.
The first round will start early, sometimes very early, on the Thursday morning. Begin your arbs hunting at least the day before. It depends when the firms price up. The nice thing about a golf tournament is that it is on for four days, and this equates to four bites at the 'arbs' cherry. Once the second day’s order of play is announced the bookmakers will price up for that days play. Be there first, prices are unlikely to move much even on the final day of the tournament. Golf can be fairly solid and staid for betting although lucrative for arbs.
The betting industry seems to view golf as a good opportunity for luring punters into having a bet. This is a sport that is generally for the well off who can afford the expensive green fees. A few firms seem to view this as untapped riches for betting and the more competitive odds on offer reflects this.
To increase interest the bookmakers are devising more varied bets. A tournament will typically last 4 rounds. After 2 rounds some of the competitors are 'cut' from the tournament to reduce the field. You can bet on a player making the cut. Yes or no. An ideal simple type of bet for arb traders. The more prominent players are more likely to have differing opinions of their form or a lesser known player who has done well in a recent tournament and been recognised as one to watch. ie. raised their profile.
The players score after each round and the total score for all four rounds is also a common bet from many firms. It is however usually split into above or below a certain score not the range of 3 possibilities associated with this type of bet in other sports. eg. over 68.5 and under 69 for one round. Less common is the finishing position. Again this is typically two possibilities not three.
Golf is an international event and is a worldwide betting business especially the majors. It doesn't attract the money that say soccer does and the bets tend to be less partisan, unlike soccer, except maybe when the Ryder Cup is involved.
Best type of bet for golf arbs:
3-ball
2-ball
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Make the cut
Score after each round eg. over 68.5, under 69
Finishing position eg. over 16.5, under 17.
Bookmakers who are primarily worth considering for golf are: WWW.Bet365.com
WWW.ladbrokes.com
WWW.sportingbet.com
WWW.victorchandler.com
Information sites for golf:
WWW.golfweb.com
WWW.golftoday.co.uk
WWW.pga.com
WWW.golfonline.com
WWW.skysports.com/skysports/golf
WWW.sportal.com (select golf)
WWW.sporting-life.com/golf/news
WWW.sports.espn.go.com/golf
Golf sporting calendar.
Golf like tennis has tournaments virtually every week of the year. They tend to last just four days not the whole week. The list is comprehensive but again the majors are the best opportunities for a bet and creating arbs alongside the Ryder Cup which also generates heavy interest.
Formula 1
As the Internet has spawned a huge sports betting market one of the favourite events is the Formula 1 motor racing calendar. This is not just for petrol heads. Remember I stated that you don’t need to know anything about the sport or even enjoy it to find arb opportunities. For this sport it is slightly different.
You need to know that there is a qualifying session as well as the actual race. The qualifying race dictates what the participants starting position will be in the actual race. The driver’s qualifying time dictates race starting position. I mention this because the qualifying throws up some nice arbs just as much as the race does and we wouldn’t want to miss any opportunities.
Every season Formula 1 tinker with the rules to make the sport more exciting. Even down to the points scored for finishing a grand prix. These little indulgences should not affect our betting strategy but beware they exist.
The Formula 1 season runs from March to October with a race approximately every 2
weeks. The weekend race is made up of practice on a Friday, qualifying on a Saturday and the actual race on the Sunday. One exception is the 2004 race in Japan which coincided with the threat of a hurricane and meant the qualifying and the race happened in the same day.
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The types of bets we are most interested in are race match ups between two competitors. Sometimes the competitors are from the same team, sometimes not.
These contests can be for qualification time or for the actual race. The idea is to pit two competitors with roughly the same prospects against each other in a head to head situation, and offer odds on the outcome. This is great for arbs as the event has only two outcomes. There are no draws in Formula 1.
What has made this sport interesting from an arb point of view is the tactics employed by the teams for qualifying. The rules have changed in Formula 1 to make qualifying fairer by stating that a low fuel load in racing must be carried forward to the race.
Low fuel loads are great for a quick qualifying lap, and hence starting grid position but means that the car will have to pit earlier to refuel. This is not necessary to know except team tactics are playing a greater part in the sport for qualifying and race day.
This makes the odds compiler’s job even harder and means that more arbs will appear.
It does appear in Formula 1 that a number of the bookmakers have not got much of a clue here about what odds to offer. It may be a question of companies offering the service because competitors do and seeing how profitable it turns out to be.
Also there are will be varying opinions on the prospects for a team depending on the circuit they are competing on. The tyre wear and car reliability is all so important. A circuit like Monaco will have a gear change every second and a particular pattern of tyre wear. Contrast this with a less demanding circuit such as Silverstone (currently under threat of expulsion from the Formula 1 calendar) and the opinions of a team’s prospects will vary.
We don’t need to know anything about this just to bear in mind the bookmakers will vary their opinions and also their odds depending on these factors. If they disagree slightly then we are ready to act.
Talking of odds it is interesting to note that some bookmakers will not really change a driver’s odds all season. Even if a driver’s form has altered, the car is proving unreliable or even a new version of the car is unveiled mid-season, which the richer teams will do. They figure they either don’t have enough knowledge or feel that the odds they offer continue to produce a profit and get lazy. It’s fine with us!
A not untypical race was this European grand prix where a selection of qualifying arbs were found. Qualifying takes place at about lunchtime the day before the race for one hour.
Qualifying match up between two team mates Coulthard and Raikonnen.
Coulthard
Raikonnen
Sports or Corals
2.00
Sports Interaction
2.08
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Qualifying match up between two more team mates Heidfield and Massa.
Heidfield
Massa
Interwetten
1.50
Coral
3.00
Note that apart from some minor set up modifications these guys drive the same car.
Clearly Heidfield was reckoned to be a long way better than Massa his team mate.
The other types of Formula 1 bets to look out for are classification bets. The classifications bets are whether a driver will finish the race or not. Actually he need only finish 90% of it to be classified. Again, either yes or no, only two outcomes. The following arbs for classification bets were found for the same grand prix.
Montoya to be classified (finish the race).
Montoya classified
Montoya not
(finish)
classified(not finish)
Stan james
3.25
Luvbet
1.53
Coulthard to be classified
Coulthard classified
Coulthard not
(finish)
classified(not finish)
Stan james
3.50
Interwetten
1.46
In Formula 1, winner bets can produce arbs. This should ring alarm bells as there may be up to twenty drivers competing in a race. However odds compilers will offer say the top six drivers and give a price for the field i.e. anyone else winning the race.
Rarely, maybe once in a season does a driver outside the top six win a race, so the price for ‘the field’ is always long.
This isn’t such a great arb opportunity but if you can take it looks good on your accounts. It would produce a profit with one winning bet and six losing bets spread across your accounts and disguise your activity as an arbitrageur. In the same vein the number of finishers can normally be categorised into 3 or 4 groups of bet. Eg. Less than 15, 15-18 and more than 18. If an arb can be created here then this is again a good disguise of your betting activity with two or three losing bets and one winning one.
Patriotism does rear its head in Formula 1 when it comes to betting but it is less pronounced than in say soccer. It's definitely an International betting arena for obvious reasons and so you should have accounts with all the relevant international bookmakers.
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Summary of Formula 1:
Treat the sport as a priority for arbs.
Look at qualification match ups.
Look at race match ups.
Note which bookmakers are lazy and don’t change their odds regularly.
If possible, try to get a race winner arb, it disguises arb activity by putting a number of seemingly losing bets on your accounts.
Best type of bet for Formula 1 arbs:
Qualification head to head.
Race head to head.
Driver classified.
Number of classified drivers.
Internet sites that are useful for Formula 1: WWW.planet-f1.com
WWW.f1.racing-live.com
WWW.f1racing.net
WWW.formula1.com
WWW.skysports.com/skysports/formulaone
WWW.sporting-life.com/formulaone/news
Main bookmakers that are worth considering for Formula 1 racing: WWW.bet365.com
WWW.ladbrokes.com
And many others, again a wide international choice is available.
Formula 1 sporting calendar.