How the Announcement of the
For Turkey the announcement of the Turk Stream was a gift sent from heaven. Even though the actual construction of the project could harm Turkish interests, as I already explained, the announcement of the project can only benefit Turkey. Erdogan already got generous discounts on the price of the natural gas that Turkey is already importing from Russia. And what did Erdogan gave Putin in return? Erdogan simply gave Putin a public handshake for the Turk Stream, without even signing a binding agreement. Putin and Erdogan simply signed a memorandum of understanding, which says that the two parties have to examine the project.
For Erdogan it is very useful to have Putin depending on Turkey, because Erdogan has slammed Syria, Israel, Cyprus and Egypt, all of whom count on Russia's support. At the same time Erdogan sends a message to the EU and the US, telling them that Turkey has an alternative to the TANAP project, in order to get more diplomatic and financial support from them.
At the same time Erdogan sends a message to Iran, to Azerbaijan, to Turkmenistan, to Qatar and to the Iraqi Kurds, telling them that Turkey has an alternative to TANAP, in order to receive higher discounts and transit fees. And it is true that Turkey has alternatives, because it could cancel the TANAP project and send the Russian natural gas to Europe. Of course if Turkey was to do that, it would no longer be a true NATO member and this would not be an easy decision for Turkey. But the Russian option is there if Turkey ever decides to exercise it. But the truth is that nobody really expects Turkey to do so, at least not for now. But the option is on the table, and that makes a huge difference.
And at the end of the day if the Turk Stream can be constructed without jeopardizing TANAP, so much better for Turkey. She will have at her feet the US, the EU, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, the Iraqi Kurdistan and Qatar, if Qatar is finally connected with Turkey through the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. To have the US, the EU, Russia, and the countries of the Caspian Sea and the Middle East depending on Turkey, is more than Erdogan could ever dream of.
That's why Turkey was so aggressive towards Syria, when Assad did not agree to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline but agreed to the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. And that's why Turkey was so aggressive towards Israel, which backed the East Mediterranean pipeline. Turkey is also very aggressive towards Sisi's Egypt, because if Egypt is not controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, she might send her natural gas to Europe through the East Med pipeline. If she is controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood she will sell her reserves at places that do not harm Turkey.
Note that Egypt has 2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, Israel has 1 trillion and Cyprus has less than 0.5 trillion of reserves. However Egypt is facing a falling production and currently she is importing natural gas in order to meet her export agreements. The 3.5 trillion cubic meters of Egypt, Israel and Cyprus is not much when compared to Russia's 48 trillion, or Iran's 33 trillion, or Qatar's 25 trillion, or even Saudi Arabia's 8 trillion, but it is enough to send Europe 10-20 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year for many decades. But for the moment Egypt needs to buy natural gas in order to meet her export contracts, and therefore what mostly worries Turkey and Qatar for the moment is that Israel and Cyprus can sell natural gas to Egypt. If the Muslim Brotherhood was running Egypt, Egypt would never buy natural gas from Israel. Egypt would prefer to buy natural gas from Qatar even at higher prices.
At the following Guardian article, titled 'Israel sees 'stars aligned' for new gas pipeline to Europe', December 2014, you can read that if Turkey puts too much pressure on the European Union, the European Union might have to go for the Israel-Cyprus-Greece pipeline (East Med), which could send to Europe 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. But the Palestinians warn that this can not happen unless there is a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The article refers to the Palestinians but it really means Turkey and Qatar, who are the countries controlling Hamas, which is the affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood that is running Gaza. By mentioning the Palestinians the article is also referring to the Iranians, who control Hezbollah, which is the terrorist organization operating at the Israeli-Lebanese borders, but who also have significant leverage over Hamas.
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Israel and Cyprus have launched a new push for EU funds to build a pipeline that could bring about 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of their natural gas to Europe annually, and ease the continent‘s energy security anxieties. But Palestinians are warning that without a broader resolution of regional disputes, the pipeline risks becoming a source of conflict.
8th Paragraph
But the Palestinian Authority cautioned the EU against signing any contract until territorial gas disputes with neighbouring countries such as Lebanon were resolved.
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But until now, political instability has hindered its exploitation, with Israeli and Cypriot claims to overlapping gas fields contested by Lebanon and Turkey, respectively.
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The planned offshore pipeline, which diplomats say could transport between 8-15bcm of natural gas annually, has already been selected for"project of common interest" status by the EU. This potentially gives it access to a €5.85bn fund, and pre ferential treatment from multilateral banks.
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A commission timeline estimates that the pipeline could begin pumping gas by 2020, four years after the Leviathan field, which contains around 450bcm of gas comes online. As well as Leviathan, the already operating Tamar field has proven reserves of 283bcm. Israel also has several smaller gas fields and is searching for more exploitable reserves. The country wants to export up to 60% of the gas it produces, Feldman said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/01/israel-sees-stars-aligned-for-new- gas-pipeline-to-europe