Conclusion
This handbook has focused on strategies and tactics for talking with groups that use terror; but a few words should be said about the character of the person who will seek to put these approaches into practices.
A mediator or negotiator who deals with a PAG must possess a number of personal qualities in abundance. Prodigious amounts of self-control and self-confidence are required, as are Olympian proficiency in navigating minefields of explosive terminology and reframing zero-sum problems so that they can lead to win-win solutions. But perhaps the most valuable attribute is patience. The mediator or negotiator will inevitably suffer numerous rebuffs, setbacks, and disappointments. He or she will also encounter bad faith, betrayals, and sabotage. And not only the future of the peace process but also the reputation of the mediator or negotiator will come under attack from all sides, including his or her own.
In short, the temptations to wind up or simply withdraw from the peace process will be powerful and persistent. But those temptations must be resisted, for patience can bring great rewards. The longer a peace process endures, the more likely it is to withstand shocks and spoilers. Many participants in the process develop working relationships that they are loath to sever. They invest more and more heavily in the process as it continues and thus want to press ahead with their joint venture until it repays them in the form of a peace settlement. They develop attachments to those elements of an envisioned settlement that they have helped to nurture. For some members of a PAG, the failure of a peace process to which they have committed might well signal the end of their political life.
Longevity, it should be pointed out, is no guarantee of eventual agreement. In most cases negotiations trundle on, enjoying neither spectacular breakthroughs nor sudden breakdowns.43 But, as explained earlier, the very act of negotiation can also gradual y diminish a PAG’s appetite (and, indeed, the appetite of its opponent) for violence. And a negotiation or mediation that produces no final settlement but does produce fewer deaths can hardly be considered a complete failure.
Patience, however, is a virtue only for so long or so far. Some PAGs enter negotiations merely to buy themselves some breathing room in which to regroup and rearm. When confronted with persuasive evidence of this attitude, the mediator or negotiator should promptly terminate any ongoing talks, while leaving the door open for the PAG to reenter negotiations should it be prepared to do so in good faith. Other PAGs are prepared to negotiate but not to compromise in any significant way, and thus the negotiation becomes largely pointless. It takes time for a mediator or negotiator—and for the PAG itself sometimes—to recognize that no amount of reframing of issues, rewording of demands, or deploying of confidence-building measures will alter a PAG’s fundamental refusal to compromise. But once this is recognized, the mediator or negotiator should wind down the talks or impose a deadline for doing so unless the PAG relents.
In the face of understandable and widespread skepticism about a PAG’s readiness to lay down its arms and embrace nonviolent political means, it should be remembered that sometimes such deadlines actual y work. So, sometimes, do the other techniques described in this handbook for fostering commitment to the process and yielding an agreement. And, sometimes, those agreements have stuck. They have tended to stick when they have included specific kinds of provisions, such as mechanisms to resolve disputes over implementation, a realistic timetable for implementation, strong external guarantors, and provisions that result not only in a cessation of violence but also in tangible economic and political benefits for the constituency a PAG represents. A mediator should encourage the parties to adopt similar provisions as they negotiate their agreement and should seek to recruit external actors who can help in or fund implementation.
All the patience in the world, all the wisdom of Solomon in deciding when patience is being abused or wasted, and all the most sensible provisions cannot guarantee enduring peace. There are limits to what a mediator or negotiator can achieve, as evidenced by a long list of fruitless negotiations and a somewhat shorter list of failed peace agreements between PAGs and governments. But without a skilled and committed mediator or negotiator, even PAGs and governments that are ready and willing to find a peaceful exit from their conflict are unlikely to get there.