STEP 2
Assess the Existence and Perception of a Way Out
In assessing whether a way out of the stalemate exists-as in assessing the ripeness of a stalemate-the mediator must look for both objective and subjective indicators. "Way out" does not necessarily mean that the conflicting parties have identified a mutually acceptable solution to their conflict, but it does mean that both parties have perceived that they and the other party are willing to look for a joint solution.
Objective indicators are less distinguishable from subjective indicators for the way out than for the mutually hurting stalemate because the existence of the way out is itself primarily subjective and depends on each party's perception of the other party's intentions. An objective indicator of a way out may be an action or statement by one party; a subjective indicator may be the other side's perception of that move as an encouragement to talk.
In January 2006, Hamas won a majority in Palestinian legislative elections, earning it the right to lead a government. (The Quartet had earlier supported Hamas's participation as part of Palestinian Authority President Abbas's inclusive strategy aimed at bringing the most powerful resistance movement into the mainstream.) Hamas had taken significant steps by agreeing to and complying with a unilateral cessation of attacks against Israel. Hamas offered to include Abbas's Fateh in a unity government-another objective indicator. Hamas's overtures were rebuffed by the Quartet, which instead set strict conditions for engagement with and cut off aid to the Palestinian Authority, under which Israel in effect blockaded the Palestinians.
In March 2009, President Obam