STEP 4
Ripen the Stalemate and a Way Out
If the parties do not perceive a hurting stalemate and a way out that constitutes a ripe moment, the mediator may have to take a more active role in ripening the situation. If "inducing recognition" (the subject of Step 3) means working on the subjective appreciation of the situation, "ripening" (the subject of this step) may mean changing the objective conditions. In so doing, the mediator moves from a role as a communi- cator (carrying messages) and a formulator (bringing ideas) to that of a manipulator (changing conditions), a more intrusive role that is suitable for more powerful mediators, not for smaller states and NGOs.
The purpose of ripening is to bring the parties to the objective condition of a mutually hurting stalemate and, more specifically, to equalize the sides so that neither party feels beaten in the conflict or too weak to face the opponent in negotiation. Parties feeling too weak or unequal are reluctant to meet their opponent in negotiation and may well be unable to hold to their agreement if one is reached. The process of ripening also involves going beyond inducing the perception of a way out to creating attractive solutions and encouraging the parties to consider them.
Ripen the Stalemate
Ripening refers to measures taken to bring the conflict to a stalemate.
Use Diplomatic Measures
Negative measures in the form of threats and warnings may be required. Promises and positive predictions do not stand out clearly unless they are contrasted with worse alternatives, which may be presented in the form of applied threats or foreseen warnings. The mediator should indicate potential negative measures the mediating country would be prepared to take if the conflicting party or parties refuse to acknowledge the impasse into which they are escalating. Mediators often make the mistake of seeing their role as only offering positive prospects, when in fact they need also to indicate-and sometimes ensure-the likelihood of worse prospects if mediation is not accepted.
Mediators should point out t